Tatamy

SLP at least 50 miles further east as compared to 18z.

They are sending Recon out into the PAC tomorrow: NOUS42 KNHC 251930 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0230 PM EST TUE 25 JANUARY 2022 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JANUARY 2022 WSPOD NUMBER.....21-056 AMENDMENT I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG TRACK 65 FOR 28/0000Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 A. 27/0000Z B. NOAA9 01WSC IOP04 C. 26/1900Z (CHANGED) D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 20.0N 180.0W, 20.0N 155.0W, 40.0N 155.0W, AND 40.0N 180.0W. E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 26/2030Z-27/0230Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 28/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 29/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

Still east

06z Euro has run up to 90 hours. Looks very similar to the 0z run at this point. SLP to the south of Cape Hatteras might be a smidge to the east.

06z GFS still brings several inches to central and southern NJ and out on LI.

06z GFS looks to be holding serve at 500mb at this stage of its run as compared to 0z

06z RGEM looks really nice at 500mb at the end of its run. It’s not holding back in the SW.

06z ICON brings a few inches to the Jersey shore with higher amounts out on LI.

06z NAM at the end of its range is flatter and holds back energy in the SW.

I would have received 3” at 12z and I would still get that on this run. You can’t make this up…

CMC at 132 hrs

12z GEFS

2/2/76 reached down to 970 mb at my location at the time on the north shore of LI.

Down to a mile in light snow. 30*

Very light snow 31 degrees; visibility 5 miles.

Light snow is moving east through eastern sections of PA at this time. I am seeing visibilities in the range of a mile or so to the west of Allentown at this time.

On the 12z GEFS, out of 20 members, one hits the whole area, another is an inland runner, another clips the east end of LI, and the remainder bring minimal or nothing.

Look at 500mb - no bueno - trough is flatter.

I wouldn’t be getting sucked into this one too quickly… like you said it’s a nice thought.

If this works out we are looking at 2-4” across the area Tuesday night.

Has flipped to snow. 33*

0z RGEM is also further north.

That is very possible. There is actually a lot of support from the 12z mesos for the amounts you noted. With all the focus on the Friday night system and whether or not it goes OTS or not I will take what we can get from this one.

The NAM just managed to draw a walk with the last event. It consistently over did mid level warming in my area and was way under with snowfall estimates. This time around it was the HRRR/RAP FTW. It did do okay in the coastal areas.

This type of snow activity tends to be low topped and the activity up in the Poconos is not always well picked up by radar from Mt. Holly. I can’t tell you what the conditions are like up there now however in the space of 5 minutes we went from 3/8 mile visibility to just a few flurries. I would guess that conditions are improving up there.