Tatamy

Regarding your second point those that are looking for snowstorms need to look at the last two runs of the CFS on Pivotal (snow depth).

Activity is moving very rapidly to the east. Snow squalls currently in the Stroudsburg area near the Water Gap. Squall also moving through the Reading area. From radar I would guess that you would get no more than 5-10 minutes of snow in a burst when these move through.

There are snow squalls moving east on a line from about Hazleton to Scranton.

You’re going to have to wait on this one as there is nothing currently reaching the ground from the Harrisburg area and I 81 on east.

I will share a personal experience. Many years ago I was driving my sister back to school at SUNY Oswego from LI after Christmas. We drove up I-81 to the Syracuse area and proceeded to turn onto 481 to complete the trip. It was late in the day and the sun was hitting the side of towering CU that made up the band. It would have a great picture if I had a phone camera (this was 40 years ago so these were not yet invented). We proceeded to drive into it and road conditions rapidly deteriorated. It turned dark and the snow was falling so hard that it was blinding in the headlights. The flakes were large and fluffy. I found that since a plow had recently passed the black top was visible. I ended up driving with the headlights off for a time and could actually see a lot better with the blacktop as a back drop. We eventually had to turn off due to the conditions. FWIW Reed Timmer is chasing the band near Buffalo so you can follow him.

Great link to the Lake Effect snow up in Buffalo. This is a link to the traffic cams along I-190 in the city. You can see some areas that are experiencing whiteouts along the highway while other areas are up to one mile with the band in the distance. https://www.thruway.ny.gov/travelers/map/text/twytextcameras.cgi?region=BUI190

This event is showing up in a lot of the 12z runs as Walt has noted. The area most likely to be impacted looks to be western and NW NJ and adjacent PA. This looks to be tied to the passage of a Vorticity max through those areas tomorrow evening.

There are a lot of accounts from people who have experienced just that up there. Plenty of videos on social media showing this as well (Chaser videos specifically).

Looks like a sunny morning in progress. According to the morning disco from Buffalo NWS with the approach of a shortwave this evening the flow will back around to the SW. This will initiate the setup of the band that will impact Buffalo. The snow is expected to begin around 8 PM there.

Temps along Fire Island and on the east end have already jumped into the mid to upper 50s this morning.

Had a quick burst of snow which left a coating. Has now changed back to rain. 33/31

Light rain mixed with ice pellets here. 40/27

18z GFS for Black Friday. It will be very interesting to see how this pattern evolves.

Very true on the elevation factor. MPO in the Poconos at 2000 ft is forecast to get 1-3" along with 0.1 - 0.3" of ice accum.

Mt. Holly issues a WWA for the Poconos and Sussex Cty in NJ. This will be a prototypical north of Blue Mountain (PA) north and west of I80/I287 (NJ) early season event.

Freezing Rain potential with the Tuesday / Wednesday event off the 0z NAM

Erie - Lake effect.

It might look like something like this from the 12z NAM:

Very little support from the GEFS on this possible event so far.

How does the power grid do out there with run of the mill wind gusts?

Both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z ECMWF are calling for widespread damaging wind gusts up to 50 MPH across the area (includes many inland areas and coastal areas) with the passage of Nicole and the phasing with the Polar jet. Timing on this would be Friday night and Saturday morning for worst impacts. Places along the coast could see gusts closer to 60 mph with the Euro solution.

There was one moderate snowstorm in the region on 2/12/75.

OKX totals

Daily total here up to 2.90”