powderfreak

Just flipped from snow to sleet up here.

Damn, North Adams just ripping winds. Multiple 50kt+ gusts. They are sustained 40mph, gusting 67mph. KAQW 031921Z AUTO 10035G58KT 10SM -RA

Pounding snow at 1500ft. 3,000ft just had an inch in about 45 minutes.

That’s when they’ve done well. When showing 1” QPF at 33-34F and you get 3-4” on the ground after 18 hours of wet snow that the clowns had 10”+. The 10:1 maps to me have been worse this year, maybe because of how marginal each event has been.

They nailed a couple events though but that was more boundary layer warmth than mid-level warmth… where 10:1 maps had 12-15” of snow at 33-35F that verified 4” of slush like the PDC had. I know Ray had an event too that those maps nailed over the 10:1. Guess it’s boundary temp related.

That 3km PDC map is comical.

That gets warm aloft.

Sleety.

Was a little surprised how warm it stayed last night, even up at 1500ft. Most guidance was a good 5F or colder from 18z yesterday runs.

Wait what, Josh has 27-54”?

I get it, the past two days have been top-10 spring days on the mountain, but then part of me is like if it’s going to snow 3”, it might as well snow 12-18”. It all melts fast anyway in April.

Someone likely does get 24”? Maybe? Ha, I dunno why I’m more bullish of that happening in NH/ME. A legit 24” is a huge storm, especially with this wind packing it in. That puts the Mansfield Stake around 100” if it happened here. It needs to precipitate a good 2.50” of QPF in my mind to get two feet in this one. This will be a healthy storm but I’m not sold anywhere in the Greens get 2.5 inches of water to fall as pure snow. Like I want to see the water numbers to verify big totals. I don’t think there’s a path for high ratios. Aloft it’s marginal at 700mb and that usually means the DGZ is way up there above it. Unless we get aggregates, with the wind, the flakes probably pack in densely. Love TK’s optimism all the time. His enthusiasm on the slopes is awesome. Saw him a few days ago, was here over the weekend.

The Reggie version of the HRRR seems super warm tomorrow evening. Edit, but recovers nicely lol.

2-3 feet?! I’ve got 8-18” but measured at High Road. I’ve got 13-14 as the actual number. Stowe often comes in lowest during big events and I truly believe it’s because its measured (I truly think these events are self-fulfilling prophecies) and it’s not a “we were looking for a couple feet, it snowed a bunch and blew around, must be two feet” type of logic. We’ll test the hypothesis again if the High Road measuring results in lower reported storm totals during hyped events… hypothesis is without a unified measurement, some ski areas find what they are looking for, if that makes sense.

Was on that myself several times yesterday! You picked a great day, that might have been the best spring afternoon yet. It wasn't fresh snow that warmed up to full sticky stuff... it was a nice true corn cycle.

00z 3km NAM to give an idea of profiles. The mid-level warming took a jog south.

Could see the Watches extended into your area for sure.

What an interesting set up. Deep ULL and multiple SFC lows.

Very slow, ha.

Baseball season epitomizes spring and warmth to me. It’s the major spring/summer sport. NFL has fall, NBA/NHL in the winter, and MLB in late-spring/summer/early-fall… for some reason baseball season hits me hard as the arrival and anticipation of the warm season.

Yeah huge recipe for big slides and increased visitation due to storm hype. Add in eclipse on Monday… lots of people wandering around to summits. Another avalanche event somewhere not impossible.

My concern in SVT is definitely sleet or mixed. Their best QPF looks to happen on the front end with the strong ESE 850mb jet. If some of the front end heavy precip falls as sleet, it lowers the ceiling quickly IMO.

Reggie a tick north but very reach around-ish for eastern Mass.

Can’t wait to do the RGEM next and debate it vs the Euro .

I don’t like that primary low, ha. Warm mid-levels doesn’t seem like a huge stretch with the mid-level set-up. That primary low makes it like a SWFE on the front side. Like Scooter said, it makes sense to some degree but it’s also the NAM.