powderfreak

Ryan Maue approves of this post.

Some interesting weather tomorrow...Strong winds and some rain? QPF amounts will be highly tied to terrain given the strong westerly flow, with upslope areas of the Greens/Adirondacks seeing the most precip and the Connecticut and Champlain Valleys seeing the least owing to downsloping effects. Total QPF amounts will range from 0.3 to 1.0 inch over higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains, to 0.1 to 0.4 inches in the Champlain, Saint Lawrence, and Connecticut Valleys. Just how strong winds will get tomorrow is a tricky forecast...and will likely see much variability in reported winds due to expected precipitation. Strongest winds are expected during the afternoon into the evening in areas that see breaks in precipitation...which should be on the eastern slopes of the northern Adirondacks and the eastern slopes of the southern Green Mountains. Wind gusts in these areas will be between 30 and 45 mph, with a few isolated gusts to 50 mph possible. Elsewhere, gusts will range from 20 to 35 mph. As stated before, the wrench in the forecast could be the precipitation and it`s stabilizing effects on the lower- levels...so expect weaker winds in any areas that see prolonged precipitation.

Time for the mountains to get some whitening... looks like 2500ft+ best shot but some mangled flakes could reach 1500ft at the tail end on that run. Getting to be that time of year. A Thursday gondola ride may be in order to start the day lol.

Fairly standard October morning...42F up top.... another Tuesday at work, cell phone shot out the window.

I think it's a lot of increased "noise." It would be interesting to study one specific meteorologist or one specific outlet's long range forecasts for the last 20 years to see if there's anything there... but as a group making long range forecasts it has exploded since the 2000s with social media. Maybe if we just looked at only HM or Stormchaserchuck for the last 20 years we'd see it's probably fairly equal, but given that explosion in sources for long range seasonal information, I bet that plays a part in it. Same with the media... even just back in the first half of the 2000s you'd just watch your evening NBC/CBS/ABC outlet at 6pm to see the "news." Now it comes at you from all sides and methods, some true some nefarious. I think the same has happened to "meteorology" to an extent. More data does not make it better as a whole... like the King Euro when run twice a day had this mythic thing about it. Now run it 4 times a day and it seems no different than the GFS and NAM, lol. Run it all the time like the HRRR and it's like what are we doing here, it changes every hour? It would be interesting to have a model run once daily and see what the "perception" is on it's accuracy, not its actual accuracy but I bet people will have a perception that it's "more stable" than the others. Because you only see it once and not 4 times a day, ha!

We are usually ok until temps get like +4 to +5 or greater departures... then it’s just too warm even up north or a pattern of cutters. But I do find our snowfall takes the largest hit anecdotally once departures sort of crest over that +4-5 mark. It goes downhill fast after that. But yeah dry periods are boring anyway you put it. Even a rainy cutter that ends as a few inches of NW flow snow is at least interesting... but going 3 weeks in January dry is about as boring as it gets.

Isn’t that the storm you guys are talking about? Or is there another?

That would drive me insane. That can’t be good for appliances/electronics and everything else to shut down/off quickly and then come right back on... several times.

That storm was truly ridiculous. Time of year and coverage of heavy, heavy snow amounts. That will be a hard one to top for just spanking climatology.

The morning after the Valentines Day blizzard of 2007. Lived in downtown BTV at the time, finishing up at UVM at the time. Six of us lived in a 3-story townhouse, this was the view out the backdoor on the morning of the 15th, looking at our neighbor's entrance.

Dendrite FTW. Wow. Yeah MPM, I remember a photo early on of your deck or truck and you said you got like 8” in 3 hours... that was when it was like holy shit, this is actually happening. Pete has some great shots that evening of his cars just absolutely gone under the snow.

October 2011 pics anyone?

Look at all those wet years since 2000... guess it's time to come due with some below normal water years.

I'll take some more space too if we are giving it out, lol.

Forgot to share yesterday's rainbow after the final round of showers. Perfect set up, rain moving away, sun low in the sky and coming from directly behind.

Yeah we are used to frequent and overall wet weather in the NNE mountains. This September was one of the driest runs I can ever remember to be honest. Those were some very low water totals in the northern mountains over a prolonged period compared to general climatology. But now it feels normal again and models do show chances for water in our areas over the next 10 days.

It's certainly been a pattern change up here. We did like 27 days totaling only a third of an inch. Then it started raining and looks like more chances coming. Mountain waterways and drainages finally have running water in them again. It is too bad it hasn't worked out down your way, but at least you aren't getting screwed out of snowfall. Would hurt a lot more to miss out in winter than some fall rainers.

Yeah looks like the upslope zones of here and over in Alex/Phin could be serviceable but... definitely dry 10-day totals for the heart of the forum. ECMWF GFS GGEM

Wasn’t expecting showers today... nothing heavy but a couple brief bouts of rain so far. Autumn vibe with chilly, cloudy and showers conditions.

Back to standing water when it rains. #NotTaunton?

0.47” in the stratus at home... 0.66” at 1500ft PWS up near the office. That last line of strong echos added a couple quick tenths, turned out to be a nice shot of liquid today. Sun coming out, awesome rainbow.

Yeah I don't doubt it. They were very close up there all day at almost 5,000ft. Torrential rain here on the county line at the base of Mansfield right now. Just sideways pouring. I bet there are some mangled flakes just above the summit level.

Yeah those must’ve been pulled off FB a very long time ago lol. Like maybe I just got my drivers license.

Man those are some old shots, lol. I look like I’m still in college in those. Reindeer sweaters for life. I’m gonna have to mail one to Phin for this winter.

You said it would get wet and it got pretty wet here, ha. So I'll give you the "W" for the win. I mean, at least being dry means a lot of nice days. Not like it would be snow so who cares, get outside and enjoy never being interrupted by rain.