powderfreak

You can see the differences in phasing on the individual members of the GEFS and EPS. Everything from max snow down your way to some showing like monster totals in western and northern NY...and everything in between.

I mean it wouldn’t take much with that phasing to include many more folks in SNE. GGEM showed how it can be done. Worth at least keeping an eye on.

GGEM and EURO really blow that Day 5-6 thing up. GFS not biting, but looks like some of the GEFS members have similar higher impact snows for the interior. Long way out but that should be the next one worth watching.

What a weenie run of the Euro last night. Gah. Day 5 threat. Day 10 totals.

Yeah we picked up 2-3” this afternoon/evening. Flow was a bit unblocked allowing for great downwind propagation of the upslope snows.

It's been snowing pretty hard here for a bit now. Good upslope flow ripping it out right over us.... everyone's favorite radar picture. The standing wave of orographic lift.

Just think, the ski areas and snowmobilers need it more than you do. Should help you sleep at night MPM . Total weenie run but I do like when the gradient is around us here. The chances for suppression in this pattern seems real low.

10-Day Kuchie at 6z for $1,000 please Alex...

Snowing pretty damn hard as this band passes through.

He’s consistent. I really don’t get how it annoys you guys so much. The dude likes warm weather, it happens.

Swim? Ha.

Looked very similar here a couple days ago. Still fully white and crunchy depth. Only 2-3” now though. Bare ground under the pine stands.

Ha I appreciate the concern for sure. I was just chuckling that I posted only a few posts above him there. Dont have much to add to the pattern thread at this time, just waiting and watching.

I posted this morning, 6 posts in front of you? Dendrite quoted me in the post two above ya! Have had a dozen family members in town for early Xmas this weekend and just getting ready for the crush at the ski area. No weather makes it a good time to be busy.

10-11F this morning here in the valley with freezing fog and mist...while it’s 31F at the picnic tables. Still only 17F at 9am.

On my phone I can only find this one from 2015... but I have another one with the past 3 years in it at work. The average is down to around 304” I think with 156” in 2015-16 and 375” in 16-17 and 286” in 17-18 and low 300s last winter.

Measurement locations and method of collection. I don’t think Mansfield gets more but you’d have to do an equal comparison. Not all locations are the same. I think of summit snow as like measuring snow on your roof vs your yard. Sometimes the snow stacks on the roof nicely, other times the roof is blown clean. It would certainly be a bit different than the snow in the yard.

Yup. Like even Mammoth is wind swept rock up top of the ridge but where they ski and then measure down lower in the trees gets 400-500”. I bet MWN averages a LOT more than their reported snowfall, they just can’t collect it. But a lot of flakes fall up there. Johns Weather in NNH gets almost as much as MWN at times and he’s at what 2kft? No, MWN gets A LOT more snow to fall they just can’t measure it. Mansfield COOPs best samples were either heavy wet snow (they would get pretty accurate snow totals in summit blue bombs) or the rare calm snowfall. As soon as ratios went up or wind went up the snowfall amounts were no where close to what the rest of that upper elevation band would see. Measuring snow in elevated precip cans on summits will drastically under report, IMO from what I’ve seen. Whether it all piles up on only one side of the can, or the flakes get shattered hitting the can and trying to fall in, it’s certainly the least accurate way (but only way) to do it in those environments. It’s like if Scooter put an 8-inch diameter by 2-feet deep narrow bucket on the top of his roof in a blizzard and then compared the flakes that made it into that thing with the snow depth in his yard. My bet is the can would have about 60% of what his yard has.

The Mansfield COOP data is no MWN either. It was a once a day reading of what found its way into an 8-inch diameter precip can. The worst time possible at 4pm after any day time heating... it drastically under reported early/late season snows sometimes because of that. There’s also settling. At the ski area we do ground based snow board in a protected spot and twice a day. Twice a day vs once a day makes a decent difference even at airports, it does on mtns too. Also upslope snow seems to come in best at night...not sure if it’s the nocturnal inversion or what, but solar seems to disrupt it. Morning measurements are maximizing upslope snow vs late afternoon in my experience. MWN does 4 readings for every 1 that was done on Mansfield in the COOP data. That plays a decent role. Its not all apples to apples. And I have no doubt if I showed any of you around and the differences, it would become obvious very quickly. That’s how I gathered trust with BTV...you send them photos of the study plot and snow board set up enough, and they see it too.

I don’t have time right now but I can show the last 20 years or so of snowfall at Stowe....it’s right around 300”. I mean folks can take it or leave it but I measured it for a solid decade now after another dedicated ski area personnel did it prior to that for about the same number of years. The Mansfield COOP snowfall is an absolute joke. It’s collection method is similar to MWN if not worse...the elevated precip can under-catches on the ridge significantly and flakes get pulverized so the COOP ratios were often 10:1 even in huge fluff events. Often times the can would be in error so they would use the 24 hour snow depth change too. If the low elevations at 500ft like JSpin can get 150-200” fairly regularly, it’s not hard to imagine 3-4000ft belt getting 300”+. I’m sorry but you don’t get 100” snow depth with rain events and melts and such on the snowfall amounts of the COOP. The depth to snowfall ratio makes no sense in the longer record given a lot of fluffy snow. Once family leaves and holidays are done I can put together a pretty damn good compelling argument with photos and stuff of collection sites and differences. We measured at 3000ft because it’s a much calmer environment and it can fart 4” of almost air overnight there while the ridge precip can gets 1” of pulverized flakes. Measuring snow on a rocky wind swept ridge is an effort in futility. The rocks are bare all winter long, no wonder the snow amount is low. Go measure snow on the terrain that builds depths to 6-10 feet where people ski and snow actually falls straight down.

We’ve had rime ice on the trees in the valley with freezing fog the past two nights. The inversion going on has been insane! Day two of stout inversion. Yesterday the highs at the ASOS were all 13F to 15F....the high at Mansfield was 28F. The summit was beautiful near 30F while it was an icebox in town. Last night it dropped only to 16F at the summit, but -8F here at home. Here’s a photo from yesterday from my coworker above the frigid cold:

Looks like the ASOS up here outside the Champlain Valley all had highs in the single digits (7-8F). Currently 3F down in town with winds still hitting 10mph or higher. It was a truly brutal day to be outside.

Mansfield sensor just above the top of the chairlift is showing -16F, gusts to 75mph and a wind chill of -57F right now. Hard pass on skiing today.

Going to pow town on the mountain. Finally feels like NNE winter out there.

At the mountain when it hit we had to pretty much stop skiing. Pure whiteout in all senses of the word.