powderfreak

Yeah certainly 3+. It's really hard to argue with the EURO right now. It has been locked and loaded for two straight days of runs now. I'd probably go down with that ship at this point. It hasn't had one run that waivered way north or something. Pretty much the same stripe across northern half of CT and then up to RT 2 in Mass for a band of 3"+. I do think 1,000ft has that 6"+ shot if the QPF pans out as progged.

Honestly, most of the snow maps are going to be too high and widespread... 10:1 is probably going to be hard to come by. It is at night though, so hard to tell. I do think the WxBell snow maps though do a lot of their figuring out based on 925mb temp, so the stuff along the southern edge is probably overdone.... much like it has in a lot of the events up north over the past month. The snow maps over the last month seem to over-do the amounts in lower elevations and southern range of the snow progs the most. That said, anything at 1kft it's probably pretty close.

Who likes popcorn? Sunny, then snowing furiously, then sunny again pattern this morning.

It looks like the mid-level stuff is what you describe, light to moderate snow that hangs back late in the game on the northern side. It could keep the snow going for hours later though, just like that lighter 0.04"/hr style stuff instead of the initial WAA 0.1/hr type water rates.

Holy sh*t Dave. I missed this earlier somehow. Just like we were discussing last night, a nice distraction!

Every EURO run seems like Kev ran out of his basement at 1kft. I think northern CT is elevation dependent and lower elevations looking better a bit further north where its even a half a degree to a degree C cooler through the column.

I mean, it's nothing really... but there's something about waking up to a white covering this time of year that is still energizing. It burns off quickly as the sun rises but I mean, someone wakes up to an inch sitting on every little twig and branch, it's a nice temporary diversion to current life. If it's going to be raw and chilly, it might as well have a crystallized presence.

This looks interesting tonight... maybe some snow in SNE? NAM also has some decent snow showers rolling through west to east tonight. Pretty much tracks like it’s following the Mass borders. o

Keep getting occasional snow showers. The type of things you see in October during the first cold shot. The flakes almost seem to be going upwards more than downwards at times lol.

We’ve had some off and on flurries too. Radar has a bunch of light returns across the North Country.

That was a pretty good ECM run for you guys. That would get it done.

It actually verbatim looks pretty elevation dependent. Like 32-33F for you and 35F for BDL/IJD. Assuming it happens as the Euro is peddling.

Starting to come around to the idea? 6z EURO was another 6-spot for you. Looks pasty. -1C at 925mb and 32-34F surface.

Ha, I almost missed it. Didn’t even bother to look outside, the sun’s burning it off fast already. MVL was under 1 mile visibility, so had to be a nice burst. METAR KMVL 150920Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN

ECM for ya...

Not bad on the NAM.

Great diurnal timing.

Backside cold air advection heading SW through New York at this time. Mountain has been NW50G70s for wind, higher than the SE portion (that low level jet missed us well south, congrats guys). It is still incredibly warm up here in the mid/upper 50s at 9:30pm... a bit humid too. At least your skin can feel it, not a dry air mass.

Having beam heights allowed me to see why the 2.45 degree scan (#3) is the one that best represents my home precipitation rates and the general eastern slope. That scan passes the Spine right around 4,300ft and is only blocked by the very summit of Mansfield (which leads to a one pixel miss in Morrisville) but is the first scan that shows me my local area... that beam hits 5,000ft over my house (I'm assuming the height given is height above the radar site level, which is at 300ft asl). Also shows why the base 0.5 degree scan is useless around here... it hits the Spine at like 1000ft elevation and even gets blocked in the Champlain Valley by the 500-800ft hills just outside BTV in Williston, Jericho, Westford, etc. The 1.45 degree scan I used to use more, hits at 2,600ft so it does shoot the gaps, but is bocked in some large blocks of the Spine, especially as the shadow of those mountains expands out into eastern Vermont. It's all sort of what I assumed based on experience, but nice to know it for sure.

I'm sure most Main-ahs are just fine without a high wind event right about now, ha.

I completely agree with you fully, as I had been skinning daily but do to my job in social media and snow reporting for the mountain, I wasn't posting about any of my adventures. I didn't want to lure anyone else to the mountain through "stoke" so I thought it was a good balance of skinning/skiing on your own without promoting it to others. However, it just became too much at Stowe. Jay Peak was the first to barricade their lots, posting photos of those jersey barriers blocking the Stateside parking lots, and I won't lie, I thought it was a bit extreme. But then after several weekends of watching it happen at Stowe it was easy to see that this just wasn't going to fly. I mean they cancelled the school year and most of the town is unemployed right now, they are obviously serious enough that they aren't going to let weekend tailgate parties go on. I think it was a couple weeks ago, SkiVermont put something out saying All Uphill Access at All Vermont Areas was now closed, so that's how I found out about Bolton. From what I heard from folks working there, it was the same sunny Saturday that pushed Stowe over the edge. It's a shame that one sunny day can do it, but it sounds like Bolton isn't enforcing it so I"m tempted to head up there for some turns.... though it's outside my 10 mile bubble (at least by driving, as the crow flies it might be close, lol). I obviously can't skin at Stowe as I don't want to get seen out there as I'm the one who recorded the uphill hotline and snow phone messages asking the Stowe Family to respect the closure for the time being. I'm still hopeful that we will get back to uphill here in a couple weeks as I think the town and ski area just wanted to break the cycle and get people to not travel to Stowe to hike. Once it gets later in the season and things become more patchy, less inviting, I think it'll relax. The shame was that it was the first time I thought Stowe really got the uphill policy "right".... just proceed at your own risk, this point is where you make the decision to continue or not (like a western backcountry gate), and if you are ok assuming all risk, enjoy the hike.

Pretty much loop the 925mb max winds and that’ll tell the story.

Yeah only 63MPH that I can find at the picnic tables at 4kft/875mb up here. That wind speed was at the surface in SNE. Whiteface Summit though got to 95mph at 5kft.

Wait you can get beam height at different distances? Lol.

63/58 at BTV. Thats humid for this time of year. Wheres the Dew Clan?