powderfreak

Still a decent amount of time if that thing is a real beast down south. 06z EPS had more members getting NNE involved.

Split that distance and we are talking, ha. There’s just enough completely jacked ECM individual ensembles with like widespread 1”+ NNE to keep an eye on it north of RT 2.

What a set up for the mid-Atlantic and SNE... that shortwave running into a 1036mb high north of Montreal.

It hit me at 18z just how far out the event is... I don’t expect a north trend but not having the system even getting started at the end of the 84 hour model runs is a very long time in model world. The shortwave could be a beast, or it could be a false alarm... the block could be massive or it could be over estimated. There’s a lot of time left in this. The big ones can have great lead time but I’ve personally seen plenty of modeled huge NNE synoptic storms go sideways at this lead time. Makes me think something could change in any direction.

The storm isn’t even in range of the 18z ECM or 18z NAM... there’s a lot of time left for significant changes. Get that progged block to weaken a bit...

That trough axis does look like it would want to amp up. Damn -NAO. I’m sure there’ll be a zonked NAM run over like BOS at some point though lol.

Definitely need a few more ticks north, ha. Still time though.

Need to drop some nukes on that block, so it implodes and let’s this storm take its rightful course to CAR, lol.

As kids we used to boot up at home and be ready to go for the 15 minute drive from Indian Lake to Gore Mountain in the Dacks. Just hop out of the car as kids and go straight to messing around on the J-Bar while the parents got ready. Good plan you’ve got.

20”+ in Mid-Atlantic is a healthy storm for sure. Phin heads down to MD and gets a bigger event than Randolph last week?

I’ll take a photo of a letter we got sent to all town of Stowe from the PD Department later. The gist was it’s all voluntary, they can’t do anything, just be a good human being for your neighbors. Or at least that’s what I got out of it. It was just “follow the guidance” but there’s no penalty.

No way, sounds like urban legend. Fined for what, where and by who? The state specifically says they are not fining, same with the State Police. There are no fines on the books except for business establishments that fail to comply to capacity restrictions or fail to require a state attestation. HOW ARE THE ORDERS BEING ENFORCED? In instances where police officers observe or are made aware of potential violations of Gov. Scott’s orders, law enforcement is encouraged to speak with the proprietor, staff, or group, provide a reminder of the new requirements, and assess voluntary compliance. DPS and the Vermont State Police — the largest law-enforcement agency in the state — continue to recommended to Vermont municipal leaders and law-enforcement executives that enforcement of executive orders be handled primarily through education and voluntary compliance.

Ha what? First family this morning in the shop was from Peachtree, Georgia. Yesterday people were talking about their flight from Fort Lauderdale. I’m definitely getting the Vid at some point. People from all over pouring in. It’s a fight just to get them to wear masks much less follow any other guidance. Personally I can’t imagine doing that but to each their own.

Christmas Day 2002 will never get better for me. 24" storm total in Albany... Christmas morning arrived with grass visible, and then it was snowing 4" per hour during Christmas dinner. It was slow to start and then just absolutely hammered during the late afternoon and evening. Shut down interstates and even local roads were sporting 12+ on them despite decent plowing. Christmas doesn't get better than a Top 10 all-time storm falling on that date.

I already miss it snowing every day, despite some nice sun/cloud/caked white, mountain views today.

Thanks. Not as good as the snowmakers’ photo, ha. What a view they had this morning.

First class sunrise this morning. 60 seconds of fire and it was over.

GEFS says civil war is back on. BOS to TAN snow angels.

There are worse Day 10 EPS snow maps for the forum.

That’s a classic look for SNE. Would be wild to see how much ORH is just destroying climo through mid-December.

Us deep interior folks support this message. Coastal systems don’t just start to magically track 100+ miles NW at shorter lead time. Possible? Sure but that myth has been put to bed since 2013 or so. At this time frame anything is possible though.

Driving into Manchester features prominence right on par with the northern Greens for sure. I used to be in awe as a kid when we’d go skiing on the weekends at like Bromley and Stratton. When you get valleys at like 500-1000ft and peaks at 4000ft, that’s when it’s like, yeah that’s a hill.

The weird thing is Bromley faces like due south doesn’t it? “The sun mountain” or whatever... wouldn’t think retention is all that much better on that aspect, despite holding cold air a bit longer in CAD situations. Fascinating discussion guys.

It’s snowing pretty hard all the sudden, surfaces instantly white again. Absolutely nothing on radar though. When I was skiing this afternoon the cloud top height didn’t seem that high up, you could see sunlight trying to pop through. We keep getting this low level snow under the radar and ridge top to fall down in town. I’ve never seen this consistent type of low level snow, but it makes sense this time of year with stout inversions hard to break I guess.

Yeah your area down to Hippy and the Berkshires and adjacent upper valley of Mass has been the dud zone so far. Seems to have missed in all directions so far. But I trust climo, it’s coming.