powderfreak

18z NAM not ideal. Lot of green precip there.

Hopefully we can use coldest climo time of year to produce something, but stepping back and looking at the overall set-up. We don't usually get big snows with an ULL going from Toronto to Watertown, NY. 12z NAM

12z GEM goes up the Champlain Valley. Not what we wanted to see there. Closer to the NAM solution. I will say, I find the 12z GFS east and weak more suspect given the larger scale upper level pattern. The 5H plots with a trough axis in like the Great Lakes looks like a cutter set-up, but somehow the GFS punts it east. The upper level winds are just like screaming almost due south to north at even 250mb.

Gotcha. I could just easily see the idea being drop that trail from the grooming plan as we hope to make snow on it tomorrow. As soon as I read the report that was my initial thought. Makes sense in an Ops meeting. But that really only works for the guest if you actually make snow on it, ha.

Will you be back up north for the weekend? The only advice I can give is it will snow at some point. The law of averages works out. Might be really crappy and as a first timer pouring over records all summer I get what the expectation was, figuring you'd have warning snows once a week. What'll happen is we'll get 20" in May or something too. The snow season is long, April is definitely a snowfall month in the mountains, some Aprils can be huge. There's plenty of time to at least get some good periods going. And if not, well then we try again next year. Eventually it likes to even out, in the past 5-10 years I've definitely changed from angst over a bad winter to just letting the process play out and see where the cards fall. Eventually climo will win out.

Haha there ya go! I just picture Phin in his log estate just blasting Phish and jam band music through thousands of square feet.... tossing out green plaid flannel to the kids and telling them to channel their inner mountain chill. Breath in with Mr Madison and nature, out with the mid-Atlantic.

It wasn’t snowing here and then I saw the ASOS was ripping 1/2sm moderate snow at MVL, ha. Radar had a real narrow band probably only a couple miles wide going right through the ASOS. METAR KMVL 131305Z AUTO 00000KT 1/2SM SN FZFG BKN013 OVC035 M03/M04 A2997 RMK AO2 P0000 T10281039

Yeah you can see the 925mb temps respond well to wind flow in VT/NH. Cooler values switching from east side to west side of the terrain with the wind change mid-storm.

Real marginal air mass. Might be a summit blue bomb and rain below 2,000ft based on the soundings.

The ol’ 998 over GFL.

I think we just need more chances, it’s been a dry stretch and a few weeks of climo without a good run of shortwaves producing weather. I think you’re right, get the flow “excited” and see what happens. Anything other than dry and boring from a weather enthusiast perspective.

If it’s a little east it’s big snow in ME. A little west it’s big snow in N.NY. It’s a whack-a-mole with the west side of the track seeing some snow.

18z ECMWF last panel. The mid/upper level wind flow is pretty much completely meridional, wherever the low tracks it should be a sharp south to north sling shot. 18z EPS frozen QPF.

Where'd you hear that? Just curious. Saw on the report they didn't groom it but were planning to make snow on Polecat. That's pretty standard practice to drop a trail from the grooming plan if it's on the snowmaking plan. Grooming normally isn't a job that struggles to get interest in rural areas, there are usually a plethora of Carhartt wearing heavy machine operators available (I love Carhartt for the record, wear it daily, not a dig). Many operate excavators in the summer and then grooming machines in the winter, usually one of the few jobs that ski areas don't have trouble filling.

It's just weird all around, but starts to dabble in politics if the discussion goes any further. It just grabbed my eye as it's Ryan Maue and we all know his work.

Interesting view point. Certainly could've done it as a going away gift. But why use the official seal in the first place? Why not just publish it on your own without it? I dunno, seems like a mark against your reputation for going behind the back of those above you. That's not what employers and organizations look for in a candidate.

Ryan Maue didn't last long under the current Presidential administration. He might make great model graphics but man, seems like a fail to not get this ok'd. Assigned to the White House in November and removed from his posting today for publishing climate change documents with the official seal of the Executive Office of the President of the United States.... without permission. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/01/11/controversial-climate-skeptics-release-papers/

A giant dendrite carved into my back like some satanic ritual. That should get the pattern to flip for sure.

Sitting around the bonfire, tie-dyed bandanas on, playing the bongo drums and singing kumbaya while releasing negative energy and channeling the spirit of the water in the backyard...willing it to freeze. While the wife brings out another plate of Shaws cheapest Italian bread with butter on it.

Haha you clowns, I love it. I must be getting old, the angst of even 5 years ago just isn’t there. Love watching it snow but it literally used to put me in a bad mood when it wouldn’t snow. No idea what changed. Even starting to like warm weather too in the summer, yikes.

Haha don’t project that Randolph angst into chill Vermont .

Actually I just want something to track. A reason to look at model runs. Probably the most boring 2 week stretch imaginable just passed. I’ll just take some evening snow showers like last night.

Good choice. We only got 2” too. But we just see too much skier traffic to open the natural trails at this point. Something Jay doesn’t have to worry about with the border closed, ha. Guess today they extended it to February 21st.

18z ICON looks almost identical to 12z. For the little it’s worth.

It’s brother the GFS v16 says deform band in Syracuse though, ha.