powderfreak

I always look at 850mb wind for upslope... 925mb for temps and try to judge snow levels off that. I'm not well versed in the ADK climo for upslope and blocked flow vs unblocked over there. I think you'll need a winter or two of monitoring wind flow and moisture to see where it ends up. Sometimes it'll be on the immediate N/W slope of the larger Adirondack park... other times it'll be unblocked and showery all the way into the eastern Adirondacks. The mesoscale models these days are pretty darn good at projecting where the QPF will end up though... not perfect of course but can give a decent enough guess at it. The global models are tougher because they will often spread out QPF too spatially... and what often happens is it is a more concentrated max zone. Any time you get a system like this though, with deeper cyclonic moisture flow around a departing low, it should spread precipitation out over decent aerial coverage in the ADKs.

Agreed. Looks like backside snow levels and upslope showery precip could coat the high valleys of the ADKs.

How much time will you spend in SLK area? Your perspective will change with time in that area. It takes some getting used to… it’s not like you move to the snowiest spot on earth, but it has a wintry vibe that can be significantly different in the means from the lower latitudes. The SLK and Lake Placid elevations are cold. They are high elevation valleys at 1,600-1,800ft+ and it is a significant difference from any CT location.

The lava in the arctic?

That’s impressive. Whatever the reason is, that’s crazy.

Went below freezing by like 9:30pm last night but held in the upper 20s all night. Low of 26F.

Yup. Looking your way… MWN on horizon.

It’s kind of crazy this time of year with the low sun angle that the eastern slope ski trails can hold onto frost all day long. 4:15pm and still frosty.

The change of seasons. The scene late this afternoon.

43F here. 33F at TAN.

Those mountains are used to heavy rains. Just depends on if the amounts in X-duration reaches the end of the whisker box threshold.

Sounded like a lot of people got in over their heads this weekend. I was cold on Mount Mansfield wandering around, but it’s only 4,000ft and I know I can get down rapidly on foot. MWN is 2,000 feet higher (10F usually). The tourists were still in autumn mode. I always travel prepared this time of year with the basics of change of base layer if get sweaty on the way up, plus gloves and hat this time of year. It’s crazy how much those things matter. You could be in shorts even (not ideal or recommended), but if your upper body core is warm with layers, head is warm, and hands covered… those are the keys to both comfort and survival.

Classic mild 50s to 19F blizzard in Denver.

Haha I didn’t see anyone worrying about ice free Arctic… just discussion. The WinterWolf time is back… keep everyone in line with a quick show of the teeth. It has been a nice fall for sure.

Haha, I appreciate you staying on brand. There could be 500 million acres of lava in the Arctic and the answer would be “let’s see if it’s still burning in a week, we just don’t know what’ll happen.”

Keystone open today at 3pm in order to beat A-Basin for earliest opening, ha. I love the race to open out there.

First trace of the season at the Co-Op.

Back in the snow personally.

There we go, accums down through 3,500ft.

Snowing good up top.

Maybe it has. Maybe it hasn’t. We just don’t know.

Snowing up top above 3,500.

You know I left safety to go out in the hail/graupel.

Just had small hail and thunder come through.

Not every day a passenger jet smokes a weather balloon… https://onemileatatime.com/news/united-boeing-737-hit-weather-balloon-cracking-windshield-bruising-pilot/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR5AqWqARKi7Vtyd8XP1QnL6YIpIPy3yxK1sQL2Bkk4Q9Dm78GXKB2kgWqDzGw_aem_nQyt_Obm5uU4t4q4YpI1cg