Yeah it’s likely recency bias… at least in town as I’m thinking past decade to 15 years tops. For the base of the ski resort I’d give it at least 1-2 weeks earlier.
But looking at BTV’s 120 year data the average first trace (which includes graupel, etc) is 10/15 and first 1” is 11/17 and first 3” is 12/3. And we are probably 1-2 weeks ahead of them.
So maybe this is about the average time of the first inch instead of first measurable?
I just find the first trace to be dubious sometimes… hail, graupel, etc.