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powderfreak

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Everything posted by powderfreak

  1. powderfreak
    I like this look for upslope, ha.
  2. powderfreak
    A little over 3” and pounding snow. A lot of water in this, seems like we got some sleet at some point. I bet we hit the QPF forecasts.
  3. powderfreak
    It is hammering snow. A few inches so far eyeballing it.
  4. powderfreak
    Yup, this evolution looks classic for eastern coastal plain zones, waiting for dynamics to ignite it as the low heads ENE, lean eastward in projections. If it retros and lingers, eventually sufficient moisture will be thrown back on cyclonic flow into the mountains. I'm surprised at the number of folks who aren't slam dunking with this set-up on eastern coastal plain sections. Looks like a solid set up to me. Toss the jacked up Canadian guidance.
  5. powderfreak
    It was never a unanimous hit, of course it’s different up here but the model runs always had that look of “nope”... maybe Maine but the eastern solutions verify much more frequently than the super tucked in lows. Without a doubt the more likely solution is always east of the western outliers.
  6. powderfreak
    Yeah I’m shocked given the guidance that people seem to be riding the GGEM/RGEM and NAM guidance. I’m always shoveling the Canadian models’ snow in the deep interior, all winter long. The interior deform band always spooks but these coastal lows still tend to be SE of mid-range guidance.
  7. powderfreak
    Yeah, I mean it’s on a razors edge at 12z. You see that you have to know it’s a coin flip and could go either way. Gore Mtn hasn’t changed all that much to be honest.
  8. powderfreak
    METAR KORH 020155Z AUTO 09003KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC019 M01/M05 A3023 Yeah 1.5sm snow will accumulate for sure, NAM missing that.
  9. powderfreak
    Well then that’s hyperbole. Gore went from like 2” to 1” between 18z and 00z.
  10. powderfreak
    Where? Didn’t see much 18z to 00z changes except trimmed some small amounts on the southern edge.
  11. powderfreak
    00z NAM continues to drop some good frozen QPF on the east side of the Greens with strong SE low level flow. We’ll see.
  12. powderfreak
    25/20 Wind just started registering SE at 3-5mph, good direction for at advecting surface moisture in here.
  13. powderfreak
    It’s almost like people don’t know how to resize, ha. I love screen grabs, but most modern non-flip phones make it easy to do.
  14. powderfreak
    Ha! Lol I thought it was for him. I was like Randolph shouldn’t worry about a warmer solution. If it’s metro west, then yeah always worry about rain more than whiff.
  15. powderfreak
    Absolutely not. Too far OTS is always the biggest risk in coastal storms for the interior.
  16. powderfreak
    Lol we are a little too high in the clouds. It’s true though even 5 years ago it used to bother me missing an event but since about 2015-16, just wait for the next shortwave.
  17. powderfreak
    Lol... so worried about a possible flaw, it cracks me up every time. Models show 5” instead of 7” and I picture you going “uh oh did I buy the wrong place? Someone tell me its just noise. Can’t have an imperfect wind flow.”
  18. powderfreak
    Looks like a pretty decent front end burst this evening of snow/sleet in SVT and SNH. Some decent QPF numbers spreading snow/ice through CNE. in
  19. powderfreak
    Euro stays the course. Gets the mix line up to about here before it gets shunted south again.
  20. powderfreak
    12z Herpes gone wild too, over an inch of water here just like HRRR. I think they are on the juice literally. I think these are too far south to be honest with the mid-level warmth, but we’ll see.
  21. powderfreak
    Yeah I’ve been stuck at 3-7” for northern half of VT for several days. Dense on 0.50-0.75” water. We’ll see some sleet or ZR before the better lift moves back in. Looked like soundings had two distinct times of lift... first with warm front then again on the back end when the vort swings through.
  22. powderfreak
    That 12z HRRR went nuts. Looks very excessive. Not sure how it gets 1”+ QPF.
  23. powderfreak
    12z NAM shockingly a bit warmer aloft, lol.
  24. powderfreak
    These shouldn’t be bad. You can clearly see the modeled p-types. Those snow maps only count the snow portion of it. Like that snow map didn’t count the heavy sleet in Mass.
  25. powderfreak
    Better than the tropical tidbits ones that include sleet as 10:1 snow. They do differentiate snow vs sleet but it’s at 10:1 ratio which is actually pretty high for this event. I mean half the issue is do you agree with the model’s p-type output, but the snow maps are just pure 10:1 ratio of the snow p-type.
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