powderfreak

It's the same as unchecked optimism, ying and yang. Makes the forum go 'round. Keep on keepin' on.

T-Blizz is a trip, I'll give him that, lol. Always entertaining and adds a lot to the forum. Loves snow.

It's great for those areas... spawning new generations of snow weenies. Some seem to get bothered by it, which is real odd, even if there's still good snow on the ground and it looks like mid-winter as it should. Like its some competition, but everyone knows what happens in the means and the longevity of the snow season vs. other areas. It's early February and the classic climo favorable time for the baroclinic zone to dip to it's southernmost position. This is when it should be snowing in those areas. It's great for those posters/folks who love snow.

So happy for you guys... you especially after the last storm. Weenie out and looks like more coming for everyone next two weeks. Maybe this winter has turned around for the forum as a whole.

I can think of a time pretty much every single winter when a lower snowfall place around the coastal plain, SNE, mid-Atlantic had more snow on the ground at some point. 2009-10, Inner city Baltimore had more on the ground than most of NNE a couple times, 2010-11 Ginxy had more snow on his shed roof for all of January than most of NNE (I think spots in CT had the same depth as Mansfield stake at one point in January), 2013-14 the Leon years PHL had more in Jan I think than Adirondacks and Greens, Feb 15 had more on ground at Mass beaches than NNE hills, 15-16 there were times following storms when CT had more, etc. Its definitely more years than not that after a big storm or series of storms that a much lower snow climo spot has more depth.

It actually happens pretty frequently when they get big storms down there. Not crazy at all.

Bread and butter falling.

That’s awesome. 1.5” so far up here from the last 90 minutes or so. Hoping for 3” ha.

1.5” at home. Almost seems like more here than base of mountain.

J.Spin getting crushed now.

That ramped up fast. 30dbz over town.

Just started dumping huge flakes. A quick quarter to half inch from the size of the flakes.

What a time to be alive.

Ahhh ok. I think we are talking past each other. The only reason those higher res models showed the potential is because they were way too wet, but in this case because of the high ratios it looks like it's working out. The HREF looks like it must operate on some other algorithm instead of 10:1 snowfall... because the QPF looks more like the Global model QPF... but it has higher ratio snowfall. Interesting, I thought that would default to 10:1. Anyway, not to clutter up the thread with this. Basically anytime ratios are 20:1 or higher you'll get a positive bust. That band is still incredible.

The only reason you liked the HREF and NAM is because they had higher snowfall maps further inland. The EURO H7 track doesn't look bad for banding where you are discussing. The globals don't look nearly as bad as you seem to say. I'm going back through the past 5 runs of everything. We'll see in the post-mortem but I really think you are just thrown off by the snow/qpf maps

Awesome. So you get a SNINCR 1 for anything over 0.5"? For some reason I thought you had to get to 1" or more to get that. And 2" or more to get the 2, etc. I just saw the depth go from 6 to 7 and then 7 to 8.

BDL has to have more than that, right? They've had at least a couple hours reported of SNICR 1.

That is just filthy to have 35-40dbz showing up on the 0.5 degree scan. That's legit, someone has to be seeing 3"/hr in that SW of BOS.

Save the QPF maps and compare tomorrow. You are experiencing what I often see on the NW flank. Get 9” on 0.30” water. Their snow maps are right for the wrong reason, but that’s hard to process for sure.

But it was dropping like 0.25” QPF per hour. That’s not even close to happening.

Nice! Looks like classic cotton candy. Makes me think the models hit the QPF just right. Probably a situation where the jacked models’ snowfall is correct but for the wrong reason, and the global model QPF is correct but snow map’s wrong because of 10:1.

Not if the ratios are 20:1 or higher like many are saying. Take the 10:1 snow maps and double them and it looks pretty good.

You guys are crushing it with the pics in this one... love it. Wonder what @Ginx snewx has, looks like he should be getting wrecked.

Yeah I’d lean a bit north of guidance in the means. Maybe that cold really presses in but plenty of times those modify a little bit.

It's about climo time of year for the furthest south of the baroclinic zone... I think we'll be snowy enough regardless to keep the snow parade going. It's moose fart season, every little ripple brings some fluff. Keeps things looking great. We were out at Ranch Camp last night here in Stowe Village and I couldn't believe how much it looked like scenes from western ski trips to like Park City or Colorado. Just mushroom caps of snow... even without a huge depth, the fluffer nutters just stack so nicely. If we can stay cold and keep adding 1-6" events and keep the ski town stoke vibe high. That 12z GFS run was serviceable for sure on the whole though. Run it out, it's still a snowy 2 weeks with no chance of a rainer. Just keep throwing a little snow on top.