powderfreak

I remember an event like a decade ago I worked at Topnotch Resort for a second job, one night they were pouring rain at 1,000ft but 3 miles away at 750ft there was 4" and dumping snow. The only thing I could think of is the wind flow was off a ridge up at like 1800ft behind the hotel where as the village was in a straight shot up valley. Like a small eddy of slightly warmer air from a 700 foot terrain drop had it raining at a higher elevation than plowable snow a few miles away. In this event... we are up to 6-7" above 3,000ft.

You get a downslope flow off even a minor hill? Some sort of compressional warming that is very slight but enough to alter a half a degree Celsius or something?

That's awesome dude!

Looks like a crush job for you guys.

That’s awesome Dave, ha.

Good to have one last snowy day.

That's sick man! Congrats.

Don't even need to look at anything but wind streamlines, they haven't changed in 4 days.... throw all QPF maps out lol. Gonna get crushed. Sort of like what NW flow does up here with the right synoptic set up. QPF is definitely the least accurate part of it.

Told ya, 10+ a lock from days ago. Never need to worry with east winds there.

Slow start but it's been dumping 1-2"/hr the past couple hours. A very quick 2-3" has landed since about 6am at 1,500ft. Snow level down to the valley floors but nothing down at 750ft other than some slushy whitening.

Late start at 1,500ft... really nothing overnight but it has really turned on with 2-3" in the past 90 minutes or so. We are hitting 2"/hr rates at times after the slow start.

The diurnal minimum tomorrow morning is the time to make hay. Snow levels seem to rise on the models tomorrow afternoon away from the strongest lift and upper level low position. This is going to be fascinating to watch unfold. Nothing seems to have changed in the past few days on the larger scale. Big precipitation event.

There’s going to be some elevation that verifies the weenie maps. Those aren’t wrong at a certain elevation. The 925mb coldest pocket is interior CNE.

There has always been a modeled break between the front end stuff and the deepening of the surface low... it’s been warm too lately. You will need to rip 0.10-0.20” per hour over several hours to get this to snow under 1000-1500ft. The same everywhere, north or south. It’s antecedent mild, with no CAA... just top-down dynamic cooling. Very rate dependent...the cold isn’t just going to “move in.”

Yeah and all adjacent areas... SNH down to Kev. Thing just nukes out. Everyone is just pounding paste with those precip rates. ORH hills 12-18”?

What a fukking crush job in Mass on 6z Euro. Just bombs out and wraps up.

Yeah I haven't seen a solution where SVT from Wilmington/Woodford to Killington doesn't get at least 8-10"+ at 1.5kft to 2kft and higher.

Big elevation storms are not uncommon in NNE. This is the climo we bank on. It feels cheap, stat padder, and late in the season, but it does all fit into the mountain climatology. Seasonal totals are just that... October 1 to June 1. Doesn't matter when it falls to the seasonal total.

Alex Cora is a leader. They love playing for him.

The moisture is going to be there. Deep layer SE feed even up past 300mb. Should end any Stein talk.

Agreed on the 10:1. I don’t think they’ll be that bad for the high terrain. If you flip in the valley it’s like 3:1 white rain. Gotta adjust ratios on those before taking them. Probably should’ve mentioned that. I adjust those maps in my head for elevation ratio changes.

3km NAM is funny. Anything above 1500-2000ft in VT is going to get crushed. I think it’s snow levels are too low but it’s usually decent at showing it. Love the SE flow upslope cooling and sharp downslope rain just west of the Spine.

Yeah but it’s splitting hairs. Anywhere near 2kft is getting 12+ down there.

Juicy 18z HRRR and still going lol.

8-16” IMO above 2,000ft (the KBL is like 2,300ft). I have a hard time seeing how they’d get less than 8” at that elevation and QPF numbers, plus good spot NW of 700mb low track.