powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Sleet is a great surface. Smooth and dense. The freezing rain is when it changes drastically. I personally love 6” of snow and sleet for skiing. It can ski really smooth and easily mask any previous surface.
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It won’t be flattened. It’ll be a net gain in depth.
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Yeah doesn’t matter, mountain summit or lowest valley... that warmth is way up there. Only way to stay snow is just to fight it off aloft. It’s like I tell folks we’ll mix to sleet and get... “maybe the mountain will stay snow because it seems to be a snowy place.” Maybe it will but not for that reason, ha.
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Yeah I think everyone turns pretty much at similar times as it’s marginal up at 700-800mb. Local topography differences don’t seem to matter as much in these. Doesnt matter though, still a nice winter event. Don’t have to talk me into 6” of snow/sleet. That stuff skis so well... smooth and dense. You push a turn, it pushes back.
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Oh we definitely ping, hoping to grab a dense 6” or so outta this. We walk the line.
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It is absolutely bonkers. I just keep looking at weather in Texas. Can't stop.
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Yeah that has the gradient a little further north splitting New England into civil war. But there's no shortage of shortwaves moving through every like 72 hours for like two weeks straight, lol.
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Models show the parade going for two weeks. Widespread 2.5-3.50" water equivalent as 10:1 snow on some of these runs. Chances are certainly there.
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00z HRRR... big jump but have some wiggle room up here.
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Models make incremental changes. Apparently humans don't believe in those and would rather just make one big jump after 24-36 hours of trends (that haven't stopped yet).
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I thought this would be the one to get you guys going. Never saw *this* big of a NW swing to bring mixed up to here. Certainly been a tough go of it around the PWM/LEW areas since that mid-level band crush job in what, December?
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P-type plots... gets the mix line right to my doorstep. Possibly another Champlain Valley jackpot... the actual valley has had a couple rare wins lately.
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For sure, weenies everywhere that night. Was only supposed to snow above like 2,000ft but then 0.20”/hr water for like 3-4 hours had it flash over to heavy wet snow straight to the valley floor. That was a textbook May dynamic cooling event last spring up this way.
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18z GFS definitely mixes us... looks like 800mb is where the warmth is centered around +1C for a time. I much prefer the PARA GFS, a couple degrees colder through the column and a nice upslope response on Tuesday night.
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Last May we had a day up here where it was around 60F at like 11:30am and I was hiking with the dog in shorts...then had 2” of paste fall that evening while cooking dinner in an isothermal CCB.
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Looks like a good call at this point.
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Snowy two weeks on the EPS.
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We take that Euro run. Axis straight through the heart of BTV CWA.
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Valentines Day 2007 will always be my true love.
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BTV's forecast map...
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Still looking like a nice synoptic 6-12” swath across the northern tier. Remarkably large area of very similar totals being spit out around 8-9”.
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00z GFS puts down some snow.
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Gradient is closer. Still a decent amount of time left at a solid 48 hours out.
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Definitely a sign of heat escaping and melting on the eaves. But oh so wintry.
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I see a mix of gutters and no gutters around here. Your ice dams look pretty impressive on that place in the corners, ha. Those are some decent icicles. I love the look of death icicles though, stuff that when they fall your definitely dying if underneath lol. Very wintry looking.
