powderfreak

Up to 79/68 at MVL.... certainly no where near that at the ski area in thick clouds. But maybe some signs of some instability if the sunny breaks in the valley are getting near 80F. 3km NAM rocks here in a few hours.

69/65 Just like July… 60s and rain.

Seems like today's SVR potential is slightly less, especially up this way. Or maybe it's more discrete. Lots of clouds and some morning showers/t-storms that likely mean it's further SE when the line really gets going. The simulated radar progs are a county or two SE with development of it today than they were last night.

Yeah looks like just SE of here it starts to really ramp up. The composite radar progs really go nuts between like GFL/ALB to LEB and ENE to between LCI/BML. If we could slow the front down to like 4pm instead of 1-2pm here, that would work too.

Glorious weather continues. 40s by night and 70s by day is why September is awesome.

2006...open it up on Thanksgiving, keep it open through Christmas.

Yeah my guess is that idea those charts run 5-8F too cold is hyperbole mixed in with not recognizing that a week or more out you’ll get changes. Maybe it should be phrased more as they aren’t 5F too cold but more that models are under-estimating the heights and what comes with that in the day 7-10 range.

Sweaty Columbus Day? Leaf peepers looking at hazy vistas?

I could definitely see long range model data being too cold as a climo baseline… all year round. So I could see the charts showing model data that those models run cold especially week two.

I find that hard to believe given it’s literal model data. It’s the Euro ensembles… it’s not even like the GFS OP. It’s not some cold algorithm so must be a reason the ensembles are missing by that much. That sounds like a concern for the developers. I wish we could actually run a verification but we’ll never know just guessing at it.

The first week looks pretty good. Shocking a model Day 7-14 prog was off. BDL and ORH both below normal to date, now a warm period coming. Looks like the EURO from a week ago had warmth around the 15th but was a bit too muted. I still don’t get what you guys are trying to prove with the attack on model data.

Ha, days of 60s and 70s, nights of 50s. That’s well played. Tip o’ cap . Looks like Mansfield touches the Tolland line too. ORH looks like 70s and 50s so far too... -0.7 on the month. Charts may not be as wrong as some make it seem.

Where do you see cool and BN on that chart Ginxy just posted? Theres literally a climo line on them for easy reference. Almost every day looks to average AN on that prog.

Yeah for me it’s in March and April is the only time… those 55F sunny days in later March are almost euphoric. Aside from spring time coming out of a cold winter, highs in the 50s are pretty un-inspiring to me. Manual labor probably the only thing good about it.

Anything to avoid the highs in the 50-65F range… do 65-85F as long as possible and then jump straight to 40s/20s .

Let’s extend the shorts wearing season as long as possible… above normal run sounds fantastic right now. These nights with 12-hours of 50s followed by a spike into the mid-70s in the afternoon are excellent top-10 contenders.

To continue with the theme of images, here's the evening's last light before the shadows fully cover the valley here.... I've never really seen the Stowe Community Church steeple stand out like that before. Just like covered bridges, there is very little that is more "New England" than an old white steeple church anchoring a village in a valley (to me). That steeple is on one of the oldest non-denominational churches in the country. Weenie stat is the top elevation of the steeple is like 928 feet for reference... the Worecester Range in the background is over 3,600ft. The town of Stowe stretches through all of this. Plenty of topographical relief for fake cold to settle in.... currently 55F after a high of 76F.

Wow dude! Those are great shots, seems close and just chilling. Love that.

Thats the same thought I had, ha. They are later than a drought stressed Stein summer. Shocking? I just looked through my Instagram feed and it seems pretty normal to past mid-September’s. Hard to tell, it’s just general early color. It becomes more apparent if early or late in the beginning of October.

Yeah I agree with you fully. Many times after an event folks are like “wtf just happened?” And in fact it was modeled very well, we just chose not to believe it. Like a high wind event where the 10-m wind progs show 60-70mph gusts but we see that in a lot of events that never materialize…. Until that one event levels forests and knocks out power for a week. Then when folks are like that was poorly modeled, someone will have the ECMWF surface wind progs showing devastation from 5 days out. We just mentally toss those so often that one will slip through. Same with big ice… how many random model ice maps of 1-3” do we see in a winter on those vendor maps with numbers like 1.53” and 2.09” ice dotting the stations? Plenty. One of them will be correct sometime .

Yeah I thought models had big rains of half a foot for widespread areas well in advance. I think the bigger thing is people see it on models and are like “nah it really doesn’t think 6-8 inches falls widespread, it’ll be localized to convection.”

What does the NY Post say though? Cat 5 into Islip?

Yeah in talking about late frost/freezes in the NNE thread, I saw several 1970s years listed as record late 32s for some of the colder Adirondack and NE VT coop spots. Definitely had to have some warmer autumns back then. Didn't snow in October either and those 1970s winters were pretty big after warmth, ha.

Off Topic but I had never heard of the Ig Nobel Prizes... satirical awards but real life studies. This one is fantastic. TRANSPORTATION PRIZE: Robin Radcliffe, Mark Jago, Peter Morkel, Estelle Morkel, Pierre du Preez, Piet Beytell, Birgit Kotting, Bakker Manuel, Jan Hendrik du Preez, Michele Miller, Julia Felippe, Stephen Parry, and Robin Gleed, for determining by experiment whether it is safer to transport an airborne rhinoceros upside-down or horizontally. Turns out the rhinos are better off upside down. "I think the reason for that is, when a rhino is on its side, you have positional effects of blood flow. So in other words, the lower parts of the lung are getting lots of blood flow for gas exchange, but the upper part of the lung, just because of gravity, is not getting perfused well, so when a rhino is hanging upside down, it's basically like it's standing upside up; the lung is equally perfused. "We've also seen that rhinos that are on their side too long, or on their sternum, especially - they get muscle damage, they get myopathy, because they're so heavy. And there's no pressure on their legs, other than the sense of the strap around their ankle," Robin explained. You learn something new every day .

Actually I pulled the ASOS numbers... of course the ASOS only started in 1996. The later October dates in the BTV dataset appear to be from a few years in the 1970s. But since 1996 the latest 32F has been September 26, 2015. One would imagine had it been there longer though you'd have seen some October dates show up.