powderfreak

955mb lol.

Yeah man look at those H7 temps and you can see it... it'd be just west of that sharp gradient IMO. Once into that -10C to -12C at 700mb it's just ripping dendrites. I think it would be in the CT River Valley in NNE to be honest, riding the VT/NH border. Like Litchfield County CT up the Upper Valley VT/NH. That'll be a fun map to watch, the 700mb thermal gradient.

I'm 100% with you that the jackpot is where ever mid-level banding is... regardless of how fast it's moving, if those current runs are anywhere close to right, there will be a NW deform fluff band. The temperatures on the cold side of the storm are just about perfect for major snow growth. When 850-700mb temps are like -10C to -20C out in the deform zone, look out for those 1.0" QPF but 20-24" of snow. The trick is, does that defom band end up over BOS or the Cape in a far east solution, or is it over ALB or something.

For sure man, I do the same thing. The worry up here is always east. We chatting. I totally get the feeling of averaging a good amount of snow but never truly jackpotting. Just steady as she goes.

I guess my point was being concerned with only getting a foot of snow and meso-scale maxes/mins seems premature given how far the models have changed in the last 12 hours alone. I would sign on a dotted line right now for a foot of snow regardless of what people east or west get, ha. Be interesting to see how many people would sign for that right now.

Or it tracks up the CT Valley and it rains.... or goes back to wide east and sniff cirrus like yesterday's runs. Plenty to be concerned about but getting a foot of snow seems like something that wouldn't be a concern at this point .

Can be applied to all models (I'm not defending the ICON, ha). Just "inconsistent but sometimes ok" sounds like a good weather model description.

Nice moon setting behind the mountain this morning.

Maybe not at this lead time. But from yesterday to today, that’s pretty sizeable but you are totally right. It’s probably not that big a deal at this time frame. It’s not like 36 hours out. 18z 06z

It’s been pretty damn cold IMO just anecdotally. -12F this morning leaving the driveway.

Ha that’s a big change for a mean.

Yeah we rained up here at day 10 on this system, ha. Funny if it goes back to that.

-12F on the car. What a cold month. It feels normal now to be below zero.

Wait for the “but it’s good for the NNE economy” card .

Absolutely! It's flakes that fall from the sky and accumulate to a given height. That's the definition of "snowfall."

Both teams had zero defensive confidence by the end. The offenses were absolutely rolling. Whoever got the ball was winning that game. Never seen such a late game offensive explosion by both teams as the last few minutes of regulation took place. The outcome seemed fine. Regulation was just extended under the guise of OT and the Chiefs were the last team standing.

Yup, follow the policies given. May be adjusted in time, but that’s how it works. Most exciting game of the season IMO.

Wow. Coin flip then a score.

25 points scored under 2 minutes is crazy. That’s how you measure excitement.

Most exciting game ever. What?!

C'mon! This is unbelievable. This is unmatchable for a weekend of sports excitement. Every game... Bills! This is the best game yet.

What a game! This is insane! American Football at its finest this weekend.

Upstate NY represent!

Well said… the less data and the lower the resolution, the more error downstream in time seems perfectly logical.

I love your evergreen and snow fetish... I'm right there with you. Young evergreen varieties with snow on them is such an aesthetically pleasing winter look.