powderfreak

That has an Archambault appeal... the best events come when the block relaxes and the NAO values are in flux, especially the backside of a strong block.

Lol yup. That’s how you get us. 2010 style.

18z GFS shows what miracles can come from a huge block. Retrogrades this sucker right into a New England rainer that blue bombs the mid-Atlantic. That ocean storm hits a brick wall and backs it right up. IMG_1725.MOV

Yes you played Devils Advocate or reverse psychology leading up to one of the monster storms. 2013 sounds right. Nickels and Dimes too that turned into an epic stretch also rings a bell lol.

Sounds familiar.

Folks will take any modeled snow at this point lol. The guys at NCEP know it and make sure entire 16 day runs go by without dropping even a tenth of an inch of snow on the populous. All joking aside there is some dark humor in the “pattern finally goes cold and everything suppresses” type outcome deterministically.

Yeah the north probably had one of the stronger changes too… from BTV 120 year all-time November max to 4-5” of snow even at BTV airport within like a week is quite a flip.

We went from setting all-time November highs, running the A/C at 70F nights… to sustaining snow cover for 11 straight days. How someone could say there wasn’t a change is hard to believe.

Cold rain here and there. Both local ASOS at 37F too. Brutal raw, cold rain on remaining snowcover. 20F warmer down at ORH.

This time of year is always the hardest. Climo isn't quite yet there fully... but at the same time the calendar is moving well within the bounds of possibility of a good snowstorm. If there's anything wrong with the pattern at all, it doesn't happen. But it's close enough that everyone knows if things line up in the first two weeks of December there can be a healthy cold regionwide snowstorm. Add in the fact that it's early season, anticipation is high, and a good early season period of winter keeps the "dream" of a wire-to-wire winter alive. Personally, I have no ground to stand on to critique anyone's angst. Ground was covered on November 16th and 11 days later, here this late afternoon/evening rain event at 35-37F (half inch so far) has finally opened up more grass than snow cover again. We had a good run of winter, our climo isn't that much different from other areas in New England but winter often comes earlier in the NW areas and those closer to the Great Lakes (further away from the Atlantic too). Local stations are just over 1.00" water and 9-10" snow... the ground cover lasted a while for November, because average highs during the time were still low-40s. The next time the trough settles in the benefits will be further south. Seasonal progression.

Hmmmm, is that what we got out of today’s posts? Hard to keep track . Everything looks good, it’ll be a painful waiting game for some.

37F and moderate to heavy rain. Snow cover is patchy now… by morning might only be plow piles. It was a good run of snow cover for November.

At least today was sunny almost spring skiing before the rain moved in around 3pm.

I don’t know what’s wrong with me, I’m already looking forward to March sunshine and a deep mountain pack… followed by the warm season vibes, ha. The winter just doesn’t get me as it used to a decade ago. Maybe I still had that residual ALB/Hudson Valley winter angst and it’s finally completely gone.

This year it sounds like it’ll be DIT. If we get to mid-December with lawn still out there, there’ll be a melt coming.

It would be building snowpack up north though. Keeps laying ground work for the future. The pattern change isn't just going to happen and bombs start dropping immediately. It takes time.

Sounds like a good place to start. Can only get higher from there.

We are getting there. Putting down good snowpack in Canada. Gradient is so close but yet so far into mid-December.

Right on track!

That’s a step down from peak torch in the 70s. Seasonal change underway .

Definitely in the doldrums of early season winter talk. Booze cures all ales?

Yeah been "ripping" 9 mile visibility -SN the past couple hours, ha. Wind is really honking though. The renegade flakes are moving more sideways than down.

Can I just say thank you for documenting this event. I've been perusing the thread the past few days to catch up on the 27 pages of the event... and with your obs, posts, photos, videos, the event really comes to life. Much appreciated. Glad we have someone in the key spot for south town lake effect storms.

Yeah a good Stowe friend is down in the neighborhood for World Cup and has skied Okemo a couple times on his Epic pass… said it’s pretty insane what Okemo has done considering the length of time since it was 70F. Like multiple routes in several areas.