powderfreak

40s at MYV out in the water in July.

SLK at 35F! Yore stuff for July 10. HIE and BML with 37F on the 5-min data. Wonder if there’s some July frost in a couple pockets.

41/39 at 4:45am as the light starts to break. This is the coldest July temperature I can remember here in the last decade to be honest. Jeez. We had to close up all windows as it was too cold, that’s s first for mid-July.

Car said 51F getting home at 10pm. We mount up. SLK and HIE already in the 40s… Alex should see 30s.

ORH at 78/41 for 26% RH. That’s some Yore for July 9th with widespread RH below 30% in mid-summer. Up here the max at MVL is 70F so far under full sunshine, late September climo.

Ha, at least some folks try looking at data throughout the day. It's easier to just not look at the models all together for sure. Deterministic long range or Ensembles? What's your model of choice at longer lead times? Also, this isn't an argument trying to be proven... it's a daily commentary on the future weather. If it torches we'll talk about that too. The torch looks like it would be later in the month, past Day 8-10.

Hold me. Day 5-9 at average 850mb temps. Here's where things become muddied though in this forum's semantics arguements. "Normal" in mid-July is hot. It's highs in the upper 80s at a place like BDL. Definitely going to be warm/hot... not exceptionally relative to normal but it'll be summer.

I swear the NWS offices troll DIT. Why else add this at the end. Longer term...it still looks like NECONUS stays away from Central CONUS heat ridge with northern stream still trying to influence our weather pattern. &&

Five days until it mild downs again.

Awesome Ginxy. Dogs adapt so well and are happy while doing it. Mine got follow up x-rays 6-weeks after surgery and should be back to hiking in August.

Everything’s been on track since April. Some summer in July. 75/55

Comes pre-cooked.

You throw them out there, I bite. The hyperbole is a trigger . There's data to discuss. Remember back in the day, all posts would include some critical analysis. Personally, I think the long term is a hot/humid period breaking off from the central US ridge. It'll flow through toasty, and then a FROPA will cool/dry things out again. But not as much (step-up)... after that it gets hot and humid for a good period in the means. "Cold frontal passages" will wash out and weaken as we get into peak climo time for heat. You're going to get some good humidity coming, at the very least in waves. It's the climo time of year. Time-to-swim afternoons, pool, lake or river?

Going to need more of these loops. The fluidity in the atmosphere is great in high-speed. That is pretty sweet on a meal-scale level. Wall of moisture rolling in waves and trying to overwhelm the area, and met with some resistance from the NE.

That’s a map of 850mb temp anomalies. No dews on there. What it’s showing is another trough in the means swinging through behind the FROPA on Thursday. The EPS has it too, if we want to go the more data-based route over gut intuition. We can only make claims as well as the data presented at the time. It certainly will be hot and humid Tue/Wed as the TV graphic showed.

Probably dewy straight through Christmas if we are going the route of hyperbole. You almost wonder if it’s just a straight 365 day stretch to be honest.

You gotta enjoy the dry weather though… plans never impacted by rain. Pristine evening wandering around the hills right now.

Yeah 12z GEFS were warmer again. Everything shifted a bit eastward it looked like.

Touché, ha.

Looks like the 6z Ensembles disagreeing with the OP probably foreshadowed that a bit. EPS was a warm look so see if that continues at 12z.

Of course the 12z GFS goes to deep trough and Canadian High building in post 300hr when it was printing 100s at 6z. The ensembles hadn’t bought into the heat so we’ll see. It has to get hot at some point. Persistence?

The deform band of drought. Hoping for an H6 surprise up this way.

The bear population has to be exploding. I think they say it isn’t, but less hunting, more posted land (less huntable land), milder less severe winters, etc. There are some factors out there that argue for a robust bear population. Honestly seems like there are more bears than deer.

Just looking through things and definitely differences between that GFS OP and GEFS out there long range. OP is a furnace. GEFS mean keeps weak troughing NW flow in the means.

108/82 max/min is awesome