powderfreak

00z GFS highlighting the central/northern Greens through Thursday. Lower ratios than this will lower amounts but it'll be a nice period of wintery appeal.

That’s the goal this time of year. Nice WAA burst over cold type of event for interior SNE even if it melts later on. Just to have that winter scene. A sign of things to come.

Yeah I would think 12-18" is a bold call. Tomorrow is going to be dense either way. There's just not much chance of good snow growth, maybe aggregates from warmth? But usually just cold enough, with warm air advection aloft, is a higher density snow. The actually amount of snowfall in inches isn't as important as the total amount of frozen QPF in my opinion. There will be some higher ratio fluff on Thursday, but hard to forecast anything near 12-18" even up at Jay.

I agree with the BTV maps. I think mid-level and low-level thermal concerns will lead to less than 10:1 ratios. 0.40-0.80" SWE to 3-6", local 8" at summit level. Then colder thermals, better snow growth, and less moisture but adds 1-3" snowfall with snow showers into Thursday. These maps make sense given the overall look and evolution of snow types. From synoptic round one: Adding in meso-scale round two over a couple of days worth of snow showers.

It is but it’s also on your doorstep and not there yet . It is mis-leading because blue on the mix line is the same blue as way up north. Frozen can be much different than a wet sleety snow to a dry dendritic flakes. You just have to realize that map is also delayed, takes a minute to update, and treats all frozen the same for the most part.

That snow line is pretty far south. Nice to hear many are ripping snow this evening to start.

That's North Country winter vibes right there.

That's legit. Nice WAA burst moving through into the cold column.

00z HRRR... I'm thinking up this way 3-6" above 1,000-1,500ft with 1-3" below 1,000ft due to tomorrow's low level warmth. It'll start cold but I think after 2-3" below 1,000ft it'll start fighting itself. It's all about how fast one can measure after the temperatures go above 32F. Above 1,000-1,500ft should be cold enough to accumulate all day, so the 10:1 maps are likely closer to reality at elevation. In the valleys with lower ratios you can cut these numbers.

My sister in BGM… they are lower than the airport though around 1,000ft.

You’ve got some solid trips lined up! Big quality mountains.

29/21 Cold column. Sky had that distinct “snow sky” gray all afternoon.

Wakes you up better than coffee.

NAM soundings are toasty from 12z… even up here. Gets warm below 925mb tomorrow afternoon.

20F. Cold season is here.

These 10:1 ratio maps are highly misleading based on smoothed/mean elevation zones... but the axis of the 00z GFS and GGEM looks pretty similar. I'd go 8:1 below 1500ft though. The two 00z global models out so far look oddly similar in the axis of snow.

Anything completely covering the grass at this time of year is a huge win given the record warmth the past couple weeks. 1.5-2” usually gets it done on the grass for that wintry vibe.

A laptop just went out the window in Randolph, NH? Wish Phin was around for these NNE events.

Dude that’s awesome. I admire your dedication to the high-end winter experience. Its so aesthetically pleasing from what you show.

Around 11am this morning there were 160 snow guns firing between Mount Mansfield and Spruce Peak. Down in the base areas at 1,500ft, where the real battle is fought every November, everywhere you looked there was snow coming out of a gun... land frames, towers, fan guns. It was invigorating. A few days ago when record highs were falling, it seemed hopeless. Today it felt different. A show of force, especially the base area efforts. A ton of capacity was aimed into the lower elevations, knowing the upper mountain above 2,500ft will have the best parameters this week. Thank a snowmaker.

Yeah and the FIS has cancelled like 6 or 7 races world wide already this season due to warmth and lack of snow… I think they are jonesing to get one in. They definitely give Killington’s snowmaking the benefit of the doubt.

Agreed.

A helluva lot less than if that axis was 100-150 miles SE, that’s for sure.

GFS has a real nice upslope signal Thursday morning.

Must be your first time on here. No one on any of the forums back to WWBB and EUSWX have ever discussed what would need to happen to get higher winds, more rainfall, more damage, more ice, more snow, hotter maxes, colder mins or any number of more extreme outcomes. Everyone comes here to discuss how to get the most mundane outcomes possible.