powderfreak

About 2/3rds of an inch of rain with the line last night. Cooled all the way down into the 50s.

FROPA is on its way to end the party.

72/57 at 8pm here at MVL. Another summer evening. This heater has been everything it was advertised to be. Full on record setting in so many aspects.

Ah gotcha, I thought you were implying above normal temps again. I misinterpreted “mild.” You really mean just normal early Dec temps and not going straight into well below normal, constant winter weather, sub-freezing, fare.

What are the average highs Thanksgiving into early Dec? What you describe sounds normal to be honest. Looks like even 1,000ft in ORH has an average high in the 40s on Dec 1st?

Got down to 61F at 5:30pm… then the wind blew and it’s back to 70F at 6:30pm .

Everyone wins.

A lot of the records MVL is beating are Nov 2006… another banner start to a winter. Neither of those years though had even a prayer on the long range, so we can avoid that at least, ha.

Up at the picnic tables now, shorts and t-shirt. Near 60F, another record high (maybe the 3-4th this week?). Hair dryer south wind. Hope everyone is enjoying it outside. Hard to make snow right now.

Congrats. All-Time November max temp back to 1882. Never been higher in 140 years.

Yeah wasn't complaining, just musing. We can't control it so just go with the flow and enjoy whatever comes. Been a great weekend to be honest.

It's wild that the picnic tables had their first snow of an inch or two back on October 8th... and then will go a month+ without seeing snow again this time of year, ha.

I'm getting there, ha. The last several cycles of the GFS have been pretty consistent in that trough moving in at day 7 (next Sunday) not being just a transient in/out. I want to keep seeing that not being modeled as a 72-hour shot followed by moderating again. For the ski areas the key will be sustaining that cold through that following week. The trough seems fairly high-confidence now... but if 850s can stay below 0C for that entire week that's a bit difference from just cold then lift out.

Yeah it looks to flip hard. Op model guidance has a few more widespread wintry threats. Almost some SWFE sliders in there too.

Dude! Look at MVL. 71F at 3:54am. Thats like the average June max temp. We set a whole bunch of hourly Nov temp records last night.

It is wild how much of a summer night it feels like outside. Love anomalous weather.

Beer? lol The heat must be getting to me.

70F with a warm breeze. Friday night in November and all the restaurant patios and decks are busy in town. Nothing like comfortably eating outside on a nice summer evening in Stowe, VT.

Good lord. That has more snow than some on here will see in a season in those grids. 15-27” first round before 12-20” comes early week followed by two more periods of heavy snow.

Not to prolong this but I didn’t see one denier that temperatures are rising? Even Wolfie said we are in a warming period, no?

Give us pow Dec 1 till April 1. Every year I like frigid cold less and less though. Just give me 32F for 4 months lol. Going forward, we’ll have to watch if this initial cold shot is really more of a 72 hour blast of good snowmaking but then we turn it off again for a bit. Again I’m always more conservative this time of year, Mtn Ops doesn’t want rosy glasses outlooks right now and it definitely leans me to throwing caution flags. I’m more looking for what can go wrong than what can go right, which is tough for me as that’s not my personality haha.

From BTV. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EDT Saturday...It`s been a record warm day across the North Country and Vermont with several climate stations breaking high max AND high min temperatures for the calendar day. We`ll have a breakdown of that later in a record report once the day ends.

Some forum members will tell you to instead leave it on in your garage and they’ll come over to inhale if it’s in the 70s again next weekend .

Yup it’s the phrasing of it. If someone is like “hey, all these warm records seem to be a good indication that we are in a warming period of our natural environmental system” people do not respond the same as if it’s said otherwise. That evokes a different reaction than the phrase “climate change.” Which has this insinuation that we need to take action. Even in your post it brought about the word “ugly”… it’s such a loaded phrase . Nothing ugly about today. Call it a global warm period, lol.

Warm records though vastly outnumber cold records. I think the issue is it’s a) become political and b) people are tired of hearing it because it triggers a secondary “why” or “what does it mean” aspect. People also bring it up in a manner that annoys folks. We are undoubtably getting warmer, we don’t have to argue about the why or what it means… but it is what it is. We can still set cold records, but it gets warm a lot easier and it continues to be so. It is what it is, doesn’t have to make anyone mad, upset, sad, happy… it can just be.