powderfreak

No complaints at all up this way. It’s only December 8 and we’ve had several fun events from a weather/snow perspective.

This forum will detonate if there’s an all-rain coastal storm within a week of Xmas .

Yeah get one more upper level shuffle like that and it’s into western SNE for good snows.

Upper levels showed that coming… phase was later but still got there. 500mb and 700mb looked good here. Snow maps agree.

Here we go.

12z NAM further east with 700mb and 500mb. Might work up here.

Once the wind goes NW in low levels there will be an orographic assist but the key is the trough going negative tilt. Slows it down and develops a bit more of a tug on the CAA. My gut says heaviest synoptic ends up over the Adirondacks and the Greens are more upslope driven later in the system. But the GFS solution is worth watching. Sometimes these lows developing along a gradient can dump big snow and fast for someone… like 14” in 8 hours type deal. We had that in March 2011… 1”+ of rain followed by 24” snow (over 3” total QPF) while ORH was 50F in the warm sector. Somewhere there should be a big gradient though when talking about these QPF amounts of 2-3.50”.

6z was even more ridiculous lol.

25F SLK, 20 MVL, 1 BML. WAA hitting western NNE while eastern NNE is clear, wedged, and radiating.

Snowstorms of the past and trying to sell a damaging south wind event at 850mb as exciting. The forum is cooking.

I say it every year but Christmas Day 2002 in the Albany area is absolutely unmatched. I knew at the time, this was something that would never happen again in my life, no matter where I lived. I remember measuring just shy of two feet late on Christmas Day. It didn’t start snowing until that morning. And it went absolutely bonkers ALB recording 1.79” QPF and 19.2” of snow during 12/25 calendar day. That’s the best Christmas Day snow event one can run into. SXUS99 KALB 261155 RERALB RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 655 AM EST THU DEC 26 2002 ...NEW ALL-TIME RECORD CHRISTMAS SNOWFALL AND PRECIPITATION... AT 1159 PM CHRISTMAS DAY 2002...THE OFFICIAL TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE DAY AT ALBANY WAS 19.2 INCHES. THIS ECLIPSED THE PREVIOUS CHRISTMAS RECORD OF 11.8 INCHES SET BACK IN 1978. THE PRECIPITATION AT ALBANY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY 2002 ALSO SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE DAY...WITH A TOTAL OF 1.79 INCHES. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 1.12 INCHES...ALSO SET IN 1978. ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION FELL IN THE FORM OF SNOW... JUST AS WITH THE PREVIOUS RECORD BACK IN 1978. AFTER MIDNIGHT AN ADDITIONAL 1.8 INCHES OF SNOW FELL. AS OF 645 AM EST THURSDAY THE STORM TOTAL WAS 21.0 INCHES. THIS EVENT GOES DOWN AS BEING ALBANY'S 4TH GREATEST DECEMBER SNOWSTORM SINCE THE BEGINNING OF RECORDS IN 1885...AND IT IS THE 9TH GREATEST SNOWSTORM OVERALL. TOTAL WATER EQUIVALENT FOR THE STORM STOOD AT 1.91 INCHES. $$ ELH/GG

Did you really think George had an agenda when he posted that? Both can be correct. It’s getting warmer and snowfall chances can be remaining relatively flat. Singular events are very possible and reasonably unchanged. A slight warming trend can be quite good along the boundary/margins. Snow and temps can be different discussions. This is a weather forum, sometimes folks read way too much into statements made on the fly by someone.

The rain will be tough but what a run it’s been early season. Three solid events moved through, producing high-end skiing and riding. Today:

Low of 3F so far. Its cold.

Nice undercast today. The scenes in general don’t really get any better in New England for winter vibes. Even had to do a lap on Toll Road, just hitting short woods sections and enjoying the slow cruise through a winter wonderland.

What a beautiful time it’s been. Hard to believe how nice a few good wet snows can be.

Snow maps are too high but if one can get it a bit further SE, wave riding up the front could dump for someone. Usually a narrow zone.

Right on dude. Pretty impressive actually the models were signaling this localized event for a decent lead time.

Caked.

It is absolutely stunning outside. Winter.

Up in Montreal now, they got plastered. Even the traffic lights are caked up and down.

There have been higher amounts than we report up above 3,000ft. The three of us who are responsible for the snow/weather/terrain observations at the mountain have all morphed more towards an ideal number, usually measured from 2/3rds of the way up the mountain. We do not just add up the highest possible value to make a seasonal total... we are looking for the amount of snowfall that encompasses a mean of the highest number and the lower snowfall near the base area. We think that 3,000ft elevation does it well. For reference, at Sugarbush their mid-mountain snow cam is at 3,100ft. That is roughly the elevation that the Stowe seasonal snowfall is coming from. Sugarbush's summit snowfall is from around 4,000ft. Others are as well at Killington and Jay. Important to note that we have reported less total snowfall than the Mansfield stake depth has increased in these events. The snow depth increased 13" while we added 11" to the seasonal total so far in this event. The past two events have been similar.

Posted these in the main Dec thread but should add them to the record here. The mid/upper slope elevations around 3,000ft have seen three separate events in the past 8 days that have hit 10". Events of 10", 10" and 11" (so far).

10" stacks on the chairs. This mountain is just plastered in snow.

Patrols opening everything. Upper Starr on December 4th? Whole shooting match is open lol. Place is caked with cement. Upper half heaven, lower half hell. Like Sierra style.