powderfreak

It’s true, December sets the tone. Been a while since we had a strong December. Even in 2018 that had even glades easily skiable, the snowpack was built in November. Avoiding the December lull makes a big difference in a season. Been a very average start to the season on Mansfield. Depth been following the average. Probably gains 4” of dense depth from the upcoming system, bouncing back on the average trajectory. Average is good these days.

Yeah 15F now here too, off a high of 30F. The shaded coating of snow survived here too. Looks like one expects November too.

Currently 16F off a high of 30F in town.

When I think of November. This season has been what I imagine. Some cold days, a steady seasonable chill, and one true torch out ahead of a trough/cold front. Today’s vibe was what I think of when I imagine the back half of November up here. A skiff of cold snow on the ground (dusting-3” depending on elevation), frosty ridges, low sun angle, cold, and snow guns blasting away at the ski areas. This November has gone about how climate norms would have it. Hopefully normal carries through the winter.

It’s still out there, away from the forecast office and population. The flip side is a NWS Met who goes into detail about a November coating above 1,000ft in interior New England is often labeled a weenie. What happens there is not going to get the same reaction as other areas… that same snow shower might have gotten an SPS if it’s doing that into BOS right now. In the ORH hills above 1kft? The forecasters know there won’t be a public response wondering what happened, ha.

I saw some pics from up in Coventry that looked very wintry… those snow showers were training just south of the border. Jay eastward into the NEK. Not much down south here today except a grass/mulch coating.

You live in the hinterlands now, right? Their focus will not be on weather there. If the ground was whitening along the RT 128 corridor, they’d mention it.

This is pretty damn cool from local met Tyler J.

You’re spot is looking good for best thumping. Even if it rains a little bit at the end… that starts building ground cover with that SWE.

Was out this evening and came home to the ground whitened up and wet roads… so must’ve had a decent squall at some point. Almost looks like it’s a covering of graupel instead of snow.

Squalls moving in from the north at sunset right now.

Conditions are pretty rugged out there today. Feels like Nov 19 in New England. Firm.

lol. Just raging fangs.

It’s been 0 to -2F for temp anomalies over a large area so far in November. And it looks to stay colder than normal in the means. Many ski areas from Tahoe to Utah/Wasatch to Colorado are delaying their openings. The pattern will change, but sometimes what happens in November is remembered during the winter. Cooler in the means, mixed with shorter high-end torches, that sounds like a New England pattern. Cold and thaws. Could snow, could rain, but will be colder than normal behind it.

Maybe 7-8:1 for places starting as snow… but given the calendar and SWFE, along with a background cooler than normal November so far (even with the recent torch)… can’t really rule out the Berks/RT 2/ORH Hills for a burst of a couple inches of wet snow from warm frontal precipitation. Agreed the ratios can be misleading, but the overall look would make one wonder about 500-1000ft+ at that latitude…those areas still seem in the game for wintry precip on the front end. Dendrite’s CAD up into Maine is favored in this current synoptic look. Yeah, it’s boring for the milder climate zones of the forum… but it’s a step in the right direction. Climo progression. It could be a torch. Next runs could also rain everywhere to Canada, be weaker and more boring, or dig in and result in net gain for someone. Money would be on more boring, as that is also climo.

18z EURO with a decent front end thump... would get RT 2 Mass from Berks to ORH Hills... but best up through Mitch and Dendrite. Eventually the warmth washes over everyone except far NNH and NW ME.

Honestly on that 18z GFS it would play out up here like many systems of that ilk… totals might be ok but it’s over like 36 hours or even more. Get like 3-5” in WAA, then nothing for like 18 hours of drizzle or freezing drizzle and another 4-5” over 12 hours at the end as the deeper cold comes back in.

3” of paste and ripping with branches drooping.

Wedged in pretty good. Tamarack with 12+ OTG for Thanksgiving there.

9 years ago… one of the fakest storms in a long time hitting BUF south towns.

Opening day and spring bumps just like we left it in April/May.

Wonder if they are aware of exactly where Massachusetts is for starters?

One of the tighter inversions in a while. It’s like 20F warmer just a few hundred feet up. The Stowe Country Club golf course is 28F at the bottom and 44F on the hill behind it, ha.

Ha.

I’m not sure what MADIS says for a trend, but definitely noticing a warm trend all the sudden at MVL. The MVL ASOS, out in the field, has never strayed far from the local PWS spots in the valley. But recently it’s broken off from those PWS readings by up to several degrees at times. 36F when the valley is 32-35F.