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nj2va

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Everything posted by nj2va

  1. nj2va
    Seems like we want to keep the heights down so the system doesn’t wind up tracking over Buffalo. 500 heights at 6z shifted north vs 0z which translated to less frozen in the area. Even if its a long shot, at least something to keep an eye on vs pattern changes.
  2. nj2va
    Re: the vortex near Japan….6z GEFS starts to change that look ~New Years Day. Hopefully not a head fake and we start to see a breakdown to this relentless pacific shit show.
  3. nj2va
    Is this area circled in green where we need some help? As the run evolves, higher heights replace the vortex and (I think) it helps weaken the strength of the western trough / pushes it east enough to dampen the SER. It looks like this vortex is helping to reinforce the current Pacific look (?).
  4. nj2va
    I’m confused - where’s the ridge on this map?
  5. nj2va
    Selfishly, I’d love a NS/clipper pattern for a few weeks. Mountains would cash in MD/WV and it’d help turn around what’s been a dreadful start to the season for the ski resorts. I think it was 2 or 3 winters ago where a little clipper dropped 12” in McHenry…ratios were like 30:1 or something like that (or honestly even more).
  6. nj2va
    The Winter Storm Warning for the CA mountains runs from tonight through Sunday night, wow. Up to 10 feet of snow locally.
  7. nj2va
    The crayola MJO chart is a bridge too far for me
  8. nj2va
    I feel like the look in early January (from yesterday/two days ago) would work for us…high heights in the AO/NAO and the pacific ridge shifted east just enough to mute the SE ridge. If we can just get a bit of help from the Pacific with the current look in the Atlantic we’d be in the game. and overall I’d rather a favorable Pacific IMO.
  9. nj2va
    This is one of the reasons we bought the house at Deep Creek. 110” average although they are off to an atrocious start to winter with (probably) less than 10” so far. it’s important living here to travel to get the snow fix. otherwise it’s just staring at the GEFS waiting for the pacific to stop sucking. glad you had a good time!
  10. nj2va
    I’ll take a +PNA over a -NAO.
  11. nj2va
    Time to start Winter 2022-2023 thread?
  12. nj2va
    Also, I feel like it's been 3 years of AN precipitation so I'm not worried about some kind of sustained drought. I feel like we revisit this thread every few months and then laugh when have a 200% rainfall month "out of the blue" and this thread goes back to page 5.
  13. nj2va
    Yep, for sure. And to your earlier point, with the majority of talk this AM about can kicking, I’d take a gamble with that look any day over the pattern we are dealing with now.
  14. nj2va
    27 and frosty. Merry early Christmas!
  15. nj2va
    Something tells me that in that setup, we aren’t talking about tracking something from 10 days out. If we can stay on the right side of the boundary, it’s more likely we’d have legit threat show up within 5 days IMO.
  16. nj2va
    Have a great time!
  17. nj2va
    Yep, was just looking at that too. You can see the progression the last week of December where the -EPO shifts east to push the W trough east (and the -EPO reloads)...and we have a broad CONUS trough with a -AO/-NAO. + precip anomalies in the TN valley/mid-atlantic with BN temps...can't ask for much better than that at this point.
  18. nj2va
    Ice storm Can you share the features at 500 that favor an ice storm in this setup? Would like to know what to look for.
  19. nj2va
    We needed a new thread badly - time for some new mojo. The persistence of the -PNA is quite something on the 6z GEFS. But on the plus side, ridging in the NAO/AO domains continues into early January with low heights rotating through the 50/50 region quite consistently. As the -EPO shifts east some, it pushes the WC trough which helps to mute the SE ridge. You’d think there’d be some chances with this look.
  20. nj2va
    27 for the low.
  21. nj2va
    It’s been a terrible start to winter for the ski resorts so happy to see snow making conditions back. Wisp and Canaan making snow too on the cams.
  22. nj2va
    Start a new thread for January?
  23. nj2va
    As dumb as this product is, I love the fact that DC has more snow on that clown map than NYC. It’d be mass weenie suicide in the NYC forum if that happens.
  24. nj2va
    Happy anniversary weenies! https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/
  25. nj2va
    Light rain the last hour. Sadly the scene doesn’t look like @snowfan
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