Juliancolton

Agree that more goodies are on the way, but would caution that those impressive looking echoes are being enhanced quite a bit by sleet/melting and will weaken as they push north. Probably won't reach the snowfall intensities that many of us saw a few hours ago.

Take 'em down I think. There's still a razor-thin saturated layer somewhere up there making little needle aggregates, but we slot for the most part.

It is now doing absolutely nothing.

That last band, albeit brief, was phenomenal. 1" in under 10 minutes. Shame it had to blow right through so quickly. 3.9"... a little breezy at times but not enough to affect reliable measuring.

Yeah, it's dumping. Heaviest I've seen here at home since March 18. Somewhat disconcertingly, I'm seeing a lot of heavily rimed crystals out there which means the warm tongue is making real headway.

Radar doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies. The nascent CCB seems to be taking shape way out in Pennsyltucky, where it's of no use to anyone. Takeaway is probably that the real high-end totals, which were always unlikely, continue to be unlikely.

Just joined the club here as well. Best of luck to all

There's some discussion on Twitter about why it prints out sleet colors despite totally frozen forecast soundings. Some good info/speculation in the replies here:

All the talk probably does us no favors in the gender diversity department.

I think it's trying to resolve the Newburgh Bay there. I wouldn't worry too much

Dewpoint down to 2F, lol. Hopefully there's some storm left by the time the column gets juiced.

3km NAM bumped up its QPF to be more in-line with the HRRR, now widespread 2"+ of liquid west of the river.

26/5 here as the dewpoint continues to fall. That high to our NE means business. It's going to be fun times around and just after midnight, hopefully all are able to stay up and enjoy it. Deep, deep lift. We'll certainly do better than 10:1 for a while, although it's hard to get much above 13-14:1 with a mixed crystal habit sounding like this.

It's likely false precision, but when I say POU I generally mean the airport itself rather than Poughkeepsie where people live. That's often a meaningful distinction and I think it could be in this case as well... if the banding/subsidence couplet sets up where I anticipate, there could definitely be a multi-inch gradient between the AWOS and, say, Marist, with higher totals N and W. It's a last-ditch bid to regain some of my lost credibility after going down with the suppression ship. Agreed, 12" is the make-or-break point west of the river. I was hoping to see some hints of a slower system, but alas, guidance continues to show a quick-hitter. The 12z HRRR gets close to saturating the column here between 8 and 9 pm and shuts off deep lift around 9 am. We have certainly seen big totals in 12-hour blitzes before. You just have to get lucky with local enhancements, without much opportunity to make up for lost ground.

My final call after poring over the mesos and ongoing trends: MGJ: 18" SWF: 15.5" POU: 13" DXR: 9.5" Millbrook: 11.5" Millerton-Salisbury: 12" Catskill-Hudson: 20" Kingston: 17.5"

The OC crew definitely are definitely best-positioned to take advantage of that banding orientation. That's your 2-3"/hr and your key to 16"+ totals. The NAM, HRRR, and especially the hi-res RGEM suggest that the WAA fronto band just blows through eastern areas from S to N in a couple hours, to be usurped by subsidence. I thiiink I may be the farthest NE of the regular posters here, so that's my biggest worry for MBY, but hopefully I can still get into the CCB before the dynamics collapse too hard.

Bx's link is a good resource. Briefly though, the chart shows a vertical slice of the atmosphere at a single moment in time (8z/3 am Thursday). The red line traces the air temperature from the surface (bottom) to, for our purposes, the "top" of the troposphere. The green line is the same concept, but concerns dew point instead of temperature. The dry slot you spotted is a good observation, and is part of what I was illustrating with the graph. Non-tropical low pressure systems are tilted northwestward with height, so if the surface low (the big red L) passes just to our south, its mid-level component may pass overhead or even to our north. When that happens, we run the risk of getting into the mid-level warm sector, replete with dry air and mild temperatures at that level of the atmosphere. Dry air can be identified by large dewpoint depressions, or lots of room between the green and red lines. In that frame, saturation is only being reached up to around 700mb, so much vertical snow-making area is lost. Basically... weak precip rates and inefficient snow growth if taken verbatim. That's after a strong burst of WAA snowfall, presumably with perfectly fine ratios, so it would still be a nice storm even in that handicapped solution. Just not feet upon feet.

+1. Not my best forecast, but at least we can take pride in having laid it out on the table for all to scrutinize. Nothing worse than the folks who strut in at the 11th hour after a week of radio silence and say they always knew it was going to be like this.

No, by definition it didn't verify. Not yet. Verification happens after the forecast period has passed.

We nowcast, for the most part. It'll be evident by tomorrow morning where the mid-level drying may hinder totals, and generally whether the strongest frontogenesis will pivot over I-84 or I-88. When friends have been messaging me to ask about totals, I tell them it'll be a good storm but not one of the greats and won't commit to numbers. That's a widely held sentiment here. Agree about the 50/50 low, I fell into the same trap in thinking it had more staying power. It's also clear that we're dealing with a sharper trough with more momentum swinging around the base than I'd anticipated up until recently, so that's playing a role, too. If this amped solution holds and southern areas bust low from mixing, folks will be quick to blame it on December climo or warm SSTs or whatever, but I think it was really just the luck of the synoptic draw. That cold powder to the coast scenario was well within reach. Alternatively, it could just be that forky literally controls the wx.

Yeah, that State College–Albany corridor highlighted by the RGEM et al. deserves it more than just about anybody. They've been real troopers through years and years of getting the shaft.

You can see the high/+ height anoms retreating as the transient 50/50 low scoots downstream. The price we pay for a tenuous NAO block. This has been a very well-forecast system overall, with a long lead time. 100 miles makes a world of difference in these wound-up coastal lows, and that's well within the reasonable track error for 2-3 days out.

Allllright, that's too tucked. That's how you really screw up your ratios for 4 out of 12 hours.

Yeah, if 6z holds serve I'll jettison the GFS and start delving into ratios and mesoscale features. I assume Albany puts us in 12-18" with the morning package.

Yup. The Euro will get it done - much better than 12z. Deform band rotting overhead as the low occludes and pulls east in the wee hours on Thursday. ~1.75" liquid along 84.