Juliancolton

The GFS doesn't calculate snowfall forecasts, that's up to model vendor algorithms. Thanks for the attempted sanctimony, though.

There's so much more to snow-liquid ratios than just column temp and wind. There are lots of great resources available online that explain the crosshair method of snow growth forecasting. That will get you much closer to realistic expectations than simply assuming that colder is better.

Choose your adventure: 1) 500mb looks epic, the surface has to respond 2) meteorology not modelology 3) ratios will be good, don't worry about QPF

I have a feeling that 3-6" might not be good with you, though

You don't see too many dril references on here.

Good. Save the ice, as we have all wished from the beginning. Nothing dim about it here, it's turning into a bona fide nice day. Heavy, heavy taking down of Christmas lights.

0.7" new snow in central Dutchess. The sun angle genuinely is working its magic, as most paved surfaces have already melted out.

Well, right or wrong, the time has come for my final call. Time is running out for those of us in the interior NW burbs to realize a major storm. The mesos are not only correcting east a bit but also trending toward more strung-out cyclogenesis, which will focus the precip shield along the SW/NE axis. I no longer believe we're in contention for the deform band, and in fact may spend most of the time under enhanced subsidence. The WV loop, while a thing of beauty, shows no major surprises at this stage. HPN: 6.8" SWF: 4.5" MGJ: 2.9" POU: 3.4"

I was down in Fishkill right as the snow stopped and had never seen such vividly blue snow. Plow piles just emanating this deep turquoise glow. What a spectacle. Then I returned home and my lawn was emanating a nice green.

Sorry, lol. As far as I'm concerned you guys are still repaying your debt from Feb '10.

You always do well with destructive thunderstorms, not sure what more you could ask.

Pretty respectable snow growth here currently.

I considered posting a mini-essay about how misleading, arbitrary, and oversimplified it is but thought better of it given the pace of the board rn. Maybe when the dust settles from this storm.

Awful. The cold air immediately strains breathing and circulation, and then you start exerting muscles that don't get much use over an extended period of time driven by the desire to get the job done despite feeling tired... recipe for disaster.

Big storms always kill a couple dozen people from things like CO poisoning and heart attacks while shoveling. It sucks, but even with plenty of advance warning you can't do too much about it.

I'm so sick of seeing Kuchera maps

NAM gonna NAM, but that run pivots the peripheral deformation band all the way back to the river for a few hours. Ultimately I think that will probably end up over the western third of CT. Bears very close watching, however.

You can't make it up.

Huge if true.

A fairly uniform 2". What little snow that fell this month has stuck around nicely to spare us the agony of bare ground. But yeah, all else being equal, the deeper and fresher pack will radiate much better.

"Looks better at H5" is my new dating app bio.

-2.5 here. My spot is losing its edge.

I have a couple barns with dirt floors and doors that don't close, if that's what you had in mind! My 560SL is in the home stretch of its winter-long restoration by a friend up in Hudson. Before it returns home, I need to figure out how to keep the barn swallows out this spring. They'll ruin a new paint job before you know what happened.

No way, not after last time when you promised me you owned all the cars in the parking garage and needed the catalytic converters for your kid's science fair project.

The wasted potential this weekend stings a bit, but at least it isn't a March 13, 2018 type of deal where you feel like time's up if you don't cash in. Our two snowiest calendar months are still ahead of us.