CoastalWx

Weeklies look good near Christmas. We’ll see if we can coast in the meantime.

Verbatim is was warm neutral, but behaved like an El Niño for a time. I don’t get too caught where and what the anomalies are, I want to see how the atmosphere is responding. Looks like we are getting a typical December response before some forcing causes the low near AK to retrograde to a more favorable position later this month, and maybe some blocking as well.

Mid December climo is not exactly snowy. So, I’m not sure having warm anomalies is something to cheer for. Lots of Pacific air needs to be removed first. I still think 12/25 and especially after is where we can finally flush the garbage out and get something better.

Looks warm for you Uncle Leo.

December of bore.

That flow makes it awfully tough for this not to be a SE or MA special. It's just way to complicated and fast over the nrn tier. It's still early, but you don't need a doctorate degree in atmospheric science. A mere night at the Holiday Inn Express will do.

56 here for the high.

Originally I was thinking post 12/25..but could be earlier if guidance like the GEFS is correct.

Too late for that. She gone.

EPS is an improvement too.

Definitely a better H5 look. But boy is it complicated. Lots of s/w's flying around.

And my Father wonders why I troll the weenies.

Some of the models do show that low hanging around and waiting for another s/w to fly in after day 7-8. Would be neat to see that happen. 00z FV3 sort of shows this at hr 210.

Ukie out to hr 144 is in LA.

Oh that wasn't meant for you directly...was just throwing it out there,

Having this not quite phase and be a srn special is still the bigger risk.

Flooded and fed chickens=septic tank?

Just over .75 here. High was 54 but down to 51 now with fog.

Yeah a little too far for us. Maybe James can get a flurry.

LOL I bring it on too. I know certain buttons to push, but the overall discussion of the Synoptics won’t change..(IE I won’t Just make stuff up). Well back to the discussion...the euro buried the weekend potential. We’ll see if it can turn the coast after hr 186.

I definitely like to stir the pot. But, I also said it wouldn’t necessarily be a torch. The pattern I envisioned was milder, and at least for our latitude..could be ok inland If things were timed out right. It was a break from what we’ve had. This board is also a heavily biased cold and snow board. I like snow as much as anyone, but I can find 95/100 instances where people thought any relaxation was short lived...only to last twice as long. That’s weather. Sometimes it goes as planned sometimes it doesn’t. It’s still early to go either way. It’s coming regardless. It’s a matter of how long.

By the way, I’d thought you get the parent reference with a time out.

I guess what Don S and Will said was garbage too? It’s a week relaxation or so on the GFS. I said two weeks. Somehow I’ll carry on if I’m off by a week.

All it did was turn it west to pump the PNA. The low won’t vanish, it’s a matter of shifting west or east. You need a time out?