CoastalWx

May need advisories in SNH. Light em up.

Yeah that’s not normal. At all.

You might get some SHSN.

NAM has a weak secondary south of ack. Not enough to flip the flow NE due to the parent low, but that would limit warming just inland. Pretty much all snow even near BOS.

18z nam colder too. Might be advisory nrn oh county into adjacent NH towards sea coast.

I don't see that blocking, but the pattern will change starting this weekend.

This is 2007 and 2012 all over again with these buds and flowers.

12z HRRR gone wild late tonight and tomorrow morning. May have to toss that.

The Hadley Cell will kill us all.

We toss the WF into NH idea on GFS. Wonder if it's one of these deals where that semi cstl front/inv trough looks hangs around in NE MA. Hard for me to see any warm air plowing into that airmass.

Yeah cross heights for sure. But you can easily look at temp plots and advection plots.

Unfortunately that post is real. Lol.

Wiz not sure if ratios are that high overall. Maybe briefly in those initial fronto bursts? That will heavily depend on where the lift is.

NAM is cold. That would be a decent thump for many. Look at KACK for hr 84 on the soundings. That's cold.

Ratios will be higher, but watch the slot. That will race in.

Actually ratios may be good near you. It's cold aloft.

Well there are all flavors of Nino. Hell even Super Ninos like 15/16 through in a blizzard for NYC south and gave us a 10" blitz bomb in Feb. But that stormy look is usually good. I also think it's important to keep it real. I don't think people need to assume 04/05 is coming because one says a "nino" look. And it also could be just temporary. But from a winter storm standpoint, we take that. It doesn't need to be super cold. It won't be imo.

The birds chirping right now, and blossoms in the common are a nice January touch.

You guys would certainly get doubt at least. Meaning your spot. I mean what are we talking under .75" total I suppose? Seems like this is a lot of 4-7" stuff where it's all snow in SNE? 7 being max and more isolated I think. Still early, we'll see what 12z does.

Nino look in deep winter across the northeast? That's our bread and butter outside of a raging Nino. I will take that over Tippy gradient ruler flow any day. Do they all work out? No, but that's a pattern with much better prior success vs a nina look.

So far so blow except for 2 weeks. We'll see how it goes.

To be honest, this little shuffling was on some guidance, but sometimes the mean smoothes it out. The overall players like ridging out west are there. Seems like now we have split flow and perhaps higher heights in Quebec. Typically a stormy look for the northeast, but not usually very cold. I am a little surprised at the changes last few days, but they aren't all that drastic in the big picture. It's like everything. You can't predict details that far out. You look at the big picture and the overall look. To me, if I saw any concerns, it (interior rejoices) would be coastal huggers vs cutters IMO.

It's why I wasn't a fan of this setup a few days ago. Just not for our part of the world anyways. That said, it's a fairly cold system. Srly winds and barely getting the 540 line to KTAN means above 850 it's chilly. So while below 850 will warm, we have a little wiggle room with the airmass...both antecedent and aloft. Normally that's an inch of crud followed by rain, but perhaps 2-3 if it works out. Dryslot races in, so nobody in SNE is cashing in on this one.

An El nino look is pretty good this time of year. You don't need to Polar Express.