RGEM looked like it ticked north, but again the general theme is a better thump to start. Looks like I turn to a bit of -RA regardless before back to snow in the evening.
We said it would come north to get areas north of the pike and it did. The guidance was bouncing around and I mentioned this in passing because it was amusing to see it. Lots of movement.
I thought we all did a good job saying the euro was probably too far south and we expected it to come north. I know multiple people have said that except for one person in Tolland Connecticut.
It’s really cold at 900 MB. That to me tells me that there could be a lot of sleet a little further south than some of those freezing rain algorithms have.
Models aren't perfect with it, so they'll always be some issues. However, I'm not sure I would plan on a forecast bust in 2019 just prior to an event, because of convection.
I fully planned on a 3hr commute at worst. I had no choice, but to leave at 2 when shift ends. Who on Earth would think it takes 8+hrs for like 26 miles.
But models do simulate convection. So while the process is real to a point, this isn't 1995 and guidance not handling convection properly. It would have to completely miss the mark on this.