Steve: My point is, that whole region north of arctic circle is pretty bad. Chris gave some good reasons why.
I don't quite buy the sampling stuff with all the satellite data that the Euro assimilates, only area I would say is suspect is the Arctic with all the cold reflectivities as Will pointed out.
Yeah, I hope. But it;s just one thing after the other. Sometimes it's one or two things we are waiting on to clear up, but there are s/w's everywhere it seems. We'll wait and see I guess.
GFS and euro definitely aren't in agreement with the s/w that the euro phases are hr 96 or so at 00z, vs the gfs 12z at hr 84. Hopefully the 12z euro doesn't lose it.
Well a cutter would easily be in the 50s down where you are..maybe near 60 for a day. After, it just depends on storm track. I agree with 40s and 50s, but I think it's more than a few days as you surmised, where you are.