CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Wow round two slays here.
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Sell that weenie hrrr output
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Low 19. Some ocean effect clouds drifting in.
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Round 1 could easily be a few inches and then pingers. I hate depending on dynamics. I lean conservative with that pike south. Although GFS is good with round 1.
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Those winter weather advisories do not make any sense to me. How do you have near 12" as the end of the range, and damage to trees and power lines from 0.1'"-0.25" of ice. How is all that only an advisory. Unless it's due to duration and not meeting criteria in 24 hrs.
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I don't see that. I'm not sold on big amounts above 8" for you because round 1 won't do it. I do think you'll glaze a tad and pelt monday before back to snow. Whether it's light or heavy remains to be seen.
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6z GFS was nice. Close to a big hit round 2.
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No 30" for you.
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QPF is less everywhere.
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If it came north, then fronto is north of you. I feel like you are thinking back to last March, but that was a different beast.
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Well actually cools a tad with dynamics at hr 24. So funny to see how dynamics eff around with the solutions.
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6z NAM is toasty.
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By colder I meant aloft. Not srfc temps or anything like that. If you have some sort of a CF subby fear.
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Why? You'd rather taint?
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I know it's the HRRR extended, but 6z HRRR is quite cold with the WAA thump.
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That "colder" look may have been from dynamics so keep that in mind. If it's weaker, pingers race in.
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They probably won't have a great idea. I think it will happen, but will it be a broad shield of MDT snows or just some bands? That's hard to guess. I do like seeing the mid level lows under us. That's usually how you can get a conveyor belt to develop and help advect moisture back in to help blossom any preicp.
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I think I'll take the under on round 1 for here. Those maps a little optimistic for any areas near sleet or boundary layer issues.
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It was a little more offshore with the second low taking over. But, you'll be at the mercy of any little vort max with these ULL dumbelling underneath us. So small changes will occur. I liked seeing round 1 look better.
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That will wash away round 1 lol.
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Yeah it's pretty good all things considered.
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Round 2 won't be as good as 18z.
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It's the best it has looked yet. The trend is favorable anyways.
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Happy Birthday Jerry. Here's to some birthday magic.
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I have a thread just like this buried somewhere. Lots of good stuff on it too.
