CoastalWx

gefs now have a pre Christmas cutter a few days earlier. That’s not a cave lol. Post 12/25. I’ve said that for days and it looks pretty good right now give or take.

When weenies don't get their bottle, they become agitated.

Great shots. Drool.

What terrible stretch.

We fringe?

I've never seen a group of weenies so resistant to this hiatus. It's an interesting look into the mind of a weenie.

An op run usually is.

I actually had a discussion with a coworker about RIC. I didn’t see Will’s post. They are close to the goodies in the mid levels, with these north ticks.

Congrats

We euro?

Some of you have completely lost your marbles. I mean loony bin type stuff. Good Lord. This pattern is nothing like 2006 or 1994. All we are seeing, is in intraseasonal 2 to 3 week hiatus and what will probably flip back to a pattern similar to what we had before. That’s all. If I’m wrong then bump this post, but for God’s sake, embrace the hiatus and know that it should flip back.

Be nice, or you’ll get poo in your stockings.

I’m sure they’ll be a chart posted to disprove that.

Euro is a little better with the inv trough. Would give the cape a little snow verbatim compared to 00z. Hopefully that builds and the gfs holds onto it.

What about for GEFS? I’d be careful of using the past 90 days to predict a two week period in a different season is going to bias warm. I’d say the same for any guidance. It’s also not just about temperature. The H5 hemispheric pattern needs to be taken into account too.

That’s a pretty good foreacast. Low heights in AK. Warmer Canada and the storm signal in the south. All going to plan. Uncle Leo, you’re only fooling yourself.

That becomes debatable beach side in Kauai with a mai-tai in hand.

It's a classic razor's edge thing.

The EPS latched on to this relaxation. Maybe earlier in the season the GEFS did better, but not lately IMO.

I'm having a hard time with CLT seeing a lot of snow. FWIW the so called snow maps on weather.us look atrocious. It's giving CLT snow with what appears to be some parts of the 850-700 column above 0C. I wonder of this is a case, of the damming resulting in more ice..or penetrating a little more south, but the warm tongues that close to the source region may need respect.

I don't have that stats in front of me, but it seems like the euro guidance has handled this better overall. Not that you should buy it outright, but it's been decent. BTW, yesterday when I talked about Mike Vs stuff...he has a euro set of guidance for tropical forcing. Things like 850 winds, VP200 etc. The GEFS can have a retro bias I guess with that among other things, so it typically may not handle things right. FWIW I like to have some fun with the all cold all the time crew. But, I always put my thoughts out....and it's not always going to paint a rosy (or should I say white) picture. I like snow more as much as anyone...but I remove that bias as best as I can when it comes to putting my thoughts out there. I know that's not what people want to hear, but why should I twist my thought process around for that?

Just prior to Christmas. The way things are going, probably will happen. Terrible month. Either cold and dry and every warm-up is rain. Hopefully it improves after Torchmas.

Some other stuff too. Hopefully the better guidance by a long shot is wrong. I'm not sure I buy a Christmas torch here quite yet. It's because the EPO tanks and the cold plunged into Plains first.

Definitely a Grinch look on some guidance.

That’s a really questionable chance and to put it out that far? NWS must be bored.