CoastalWx

60s Friday?

Shut ‘em down.

The ensembles don’t seem as enthusiastic for the 12/24 deal, but it’s not impossible. There are a few opportunities after that. It defintely does look gradient-like during this time. I’d feel better in NNE, but some guidance gets southern areas too.

I’m just sort of talking out loud here, but sure it’s possible it could act like one. However I don’t think we are seeing that here. I think enough anomalies exist to have an effect. It’s just been temporarily interfered with by the MJO.

Well if we keep everything the same, then the anomalies aren’t going to tell the story. The same ocean temp anomalies from 50 years ago likely won’t have the same effect on the current atmosphere.

.2”. At least it’s white.

It’s actially heavy

Well I’ll be. Coating and snowing.

Radar looks like ass. Mehdoki niño rolls on.

Well a lot of SNE is in your shoes. Just imagine James in a silk robe running with you.

Ha, Steve. I know what you mean. We don’t have that nasty low Stratus coming off the ocean like we do during rain events. Has that feel but alas airmass stinks. At least here.

Put it this way, I don’t think one person had an overall +AO and a SE ridge nina circulation in the last third of December. That did show up in guidance and yes you have to look at models for that. You adjust. However I think the longer term still stands. Hope I’m not wrong.

I agree about the reshuffling. That should happen later this month into early January I think. I could be wrong, but it seemed isotherm and a few others were maybe more bullish for an earlier transition, but it should happen. To his model point, the tropics were seen coming a few weeks ago. That usually overrides a lot of the forcing from wave fluxes etc. But, I think now we are in a better state for constructive interference and should see some results into Jan. The pattern maybe gets better near Christmas, but I think I’d feel more comfortable after that for a better, but more stable regime. And yeah, isotherm has some great thoughts. It’s good to have someone like him.

Such a good track with an lousy outcome

I agree overall with Tip. I think his point has merit. It’s also why the CPC changed some of the former ENSO years with the new SST climo. However, that is misleading because it’s quite possible that a cooler overall Earth acted as we think it should when anomalies are presented. So what was a moderate niño back then, is now weak....however it probably acted like a moderate niño. So to look back and say so and so year was a weak niño is not really fair imo. Anyways what is happening now is totally inteaseaosnal. Mjo is destructively interfering. I have to think that changes in January?

This band has some massive chunks of sleet with mangled flakes.

Pinging here. 42. Just started. Very light.

It’s goinf to depend on getting a good and hefty band of deep layer lift. NAM suggests this and flashes the interior over esp north of 90. If it’s just showery stuff then forget it.

When even I think the strat stuff is impressive, it says a lot. Most of the strat nonsense on twitter is garbage. I’m not sure how it will manifest at 500, but hell of a lot better than a black hole there.

Yeah. It’s been great for you guys and not to take anything away from that. But I suppose we need some bad luck too. Haven’t had much of that.

When Snow88 mails it in, time to tune up the blower.

Yeah I think you just missed it. My folks didn’t get much either. It was a tail end band.

In the good news department, the euro ensembles have what seems to be a few chances of overrunning after Christmas. Nice high pressure to the north even on the mean. Also, the stratosphere is getting socked around. This isn’t typical stratospheric voodoo that we always see from the typical twitter folks...it’s a legit and substantial warming. It’s getting beyond 50mb and below so start watching H5 changes in guidance. Hopefully anyways.

Almost 2.5” here and mostly in one hour. That was the most special morning I can recall. Overachiever.