Usually westerly flow FTW. Pretty good winds aloft (50kts near 700). ML CAPES are not that impressive, but I still note guidance is bring some good storms right to the coast and even srn areas. So I was intrigued and looked to see why. Initially best instability is pike north where better srfc to 850 theta-e lies. However by late day it looks like a surge of higher theta-e down to 925 moves in. Also coincides with better MU CAPE draped near the Pike at 00z. So, this almost looks like storms forming at nose of good low level theta-e..almost like an elevated type deal, but not quite. Also seems like H5 temps are slightly cooler E and N you go. So that will help. Warmer temps in srn NY state at that level. Note the HRRR has decent UH swaths near pike and north. UH Udraft Helicity, could mean a couple of these could be rather strong or even severe.