CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Looks like another sneaky cold push next weekend too. After that we moderate a bit as the big epo block relaxes. One thing I did notice is that Greenland ridging tries to come into play as that happens.
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The anafrontal part definitely hasn’t improved much. Seems like the moisture zips on out rather quick as temps drop.
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Those clown maps look a little high.
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Hmm, yeah that is pretty amped. I didn’t look at the 18z run. Well, I suppose It’s relative. You’ll do well behind the front anyways. And who knows, we’ve seen the euro throttle back at times from amped solutions. Maybe you taint for a time, but a base builder at least there.
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Yeah the Jspin/PF area to Alex and Sunday River on E and NE look pretty darn sweet.
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Another sub 40 day. Not bad.
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We'll have to watch the srn tail of that trough. 12z euro is a little sharper there in the srn Plains. It's probably curtains for SNE with the low moving in, but if we want precip to hang around as the cold moves in, get that tail end s/w energy to sharpen a bit.
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It's raining oak leaves, but these muthafukkas never come down until after T-Day. Even if it was sub zero starting Labor day.
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Another sneaky cold shot next weekend. That is recent.
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Oh I see what you meant. Well, I’d rather see something favorable in November. If I looked out long range and saw the Death Star setup near AK, I’d be A little concerned. That’s not to say December could have that...still could. However, I don’t see many signs of anything too ominous regarding that. I’m fact, the massive Scandinavia blocking could be a harbinger the getting a -NAO. That’s happened in the past.
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The NAM is a nice crown on the rocks solution. 1-3” and then the arctic hounds come in. I don’t expect that, but the thought of the very idea of a nice glass of your favorite liquor with white ground and temps plummeting is certainly appealing.
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The NAM/GFS combo isn’t exactly a riveting set of guidance.
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Given that it’s not a stemwinder of a low, we may have to watch nrn ORH county for a push of cold air to the SSW. I’m not saying the NAM is right, but the idea of the cold sagging south into this area is probably something to watch.
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I think you said it. Early to mid November. I think people don’t understand how hard that is. You have a better chance getting snow in late March. So to me, I don’t have the angst.
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I’d hit the NAM....but.....
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What would be nice is if we had a sharper s/w down south to help with a secondary low and overrunning after the first low pulls away. Seemed like some ensemble members had that, but also looks to be a low chance of happening.
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I don’t see any signs of pattern breakdown either. The end of the EPS look pretty mice with a +PNA. A +NAO , but some signs of a weak ridge maybe in NE Greenland. The big takeaway to me is that the Pacific still looks good.
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Too bad this isn’t further SE for something more interesting. It’s going to be deep winter from PF to Alex and adjacent Maine.
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Just like BOS there are days where it's closer to reality. Dude, we've said this to you for years now. The sample size is enough to mention it may be cool...hell even mine may run a degree cool. It seems to be more noticeable on clear days where heat does radiate off surfaces. ORH seems to due well on W winds. Might be why they are cool.
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It tries at 6z to initially come in a bit further SE, but still rather ugly for SNE.
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I do. I’m not trying to bust chops, it just sometimes seems cool that’s all. I did bring to light BOS and other stations that have issues, so I know what I’m doing here. Enjoy the cold.
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The radiators do what radiators do. But as the evidence and multiple people said yesterday, it may be a shield issue. Don’t worry, I’m not stealing your snow.
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Might have to watch interior SNE north of pike for sneaky ice if NAM is right. Some subtle ticks SE on overnight guidance.
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That’s it’s still likely off as we have said. 22.
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It looks rather unfavorable for SNE.
