CoastalWx

I think looking at the H5 pattern is a better way to understand vs text values.

Here is 2015. At 50mb, it's more near and just north of Siberia...not so much in Canada or over Hudson Bay. However, as Tombo noted a few days ago, you can see a big ridge in AK and the elongation favorable for cold air delivery. You don't have to have the strat PV sitting in Canada. That 50mb look would be fine. Also note I am no expert...just sort of going by what makes sense to me.

GEFS are all over...not many look like the op anyways.

Get off the Jan thread. Jan is done.

Man we pray for the snowicane on the 6z.

I actually think I hit the ground, died, then went to heaven.

Pretty nice warming at 50mb emanating from Siberia pushing into AK. Starts to elongate the vortex. That’s nice to see.

That's a power list with many recent examples.

I know Steve, we kid. I do admire your enthusiasm.

If you enjoy morphine drips of HRRR and water vapor images of missed storms, Ginx is full blown motor boating 20 kilos of cocaine with GOES 16 looping on the Dell. I give the man props for disrobing to storms that have zero impact for him.

Yeah, don't look at the solution, but that is the next chance of anything worth watching. That's all you can say.

Man storm.

Nah no cut. Hugger.

My point was more to the fact that people say.."that's not going to happen..won't work out..." in the face of something obvious in every piece of guidance. March 4th last year. Everyone thought congrats PF a few days earlier....and yes I admit I was one of them. We saw that all winter with the NNE epic snows. It turned into one of the top prolific short duration snow events I've ever had. I agree it can work out. I remember feeling like that in 2012. Everything that could go wrong, went wrong. For once, I feel like maybe we can actually get some winter after next week. There is some evidence for it.

Even 02-03 on the coast was frustrating as n and w of 128 cleaned up through Jan. Feb came in with violence.

We say this every winter, but eventually something works out. Persistence isn’t always the best way to forecast.

It's different as the PAC will improve.

HBR into NE Quebec ridging on that one. Worth watching, and then we finally get the PAC to cooperate more. A little more optimistic feeling this morning.

Neither am I. More or less the conus.

Man that depth too.

It shows 5” of rain

We have some skill. I don’t have the stats to back it up, but it seems like lately we have a lot of volatility vs like pre 2015. I think 15-16 was the last real successful call that I can remember, but we also know it was a strong nino.

I think it’s more of a joke vs many thinking no skill or pure voodoo. There is some skill. I know when I say it, I’m doing it in a jokingly way.

The big respite we have had since 12-20 or whatever was modeled too. The collapse though of a more favorable look, was a surprise. At least to me. Back in early Jan that looked like game on. Obviously that didn’t work out.

It’s been like pulling teeth with the NAO to go negative. We’ve had brief stretches (hell a month in 2018), but it’s been all out positive overall as you said. At some point it will turn around though. Just like our stretch of favorable PAC regimes will turn too and possibly become more unfavorable.