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CoastalWx

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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    Way too early to say that. Even the GFS ensembles wete warmer than meet up. But, Luckily we have time to see if we can improve it.
  2. CoastalWx
    Winds increasing aloft, but not too bad yet. Closer to lunch time will be a bigger issue. Expect some bumps into the Carolinas.
  3. CoastalWx
    Full blown SWFE on the 6z GFS next week. Euro has some CAD, but not like GFS. Hopefully that improves.
  4. CoastalWx
    Changes were evident early on. On the 18z GFS, you can see the s/w kissing the CA coast causing the main s/w near Denver to start moving NE at hr 150. At hr 144 on the 00z GFS, these two systems are much farther apart. As a result, the first and parent s/w dives well south and is not allowed to amp up as much due to confluence. Because it can't amplify, it's taken to the grinder. Not sure if it is right or not. Hopefully it is.
  5. CoastalWx
    Some big changes next week on the GFS. That s/w that causes the low to cut west, digs farther south is just seems a bit weaker. Thus, a more SWFE and cooler solution for now. To me, the massive ULL SW of Greenland almost forces this to not amplify.
  6. CoastalWx
    41f
  7. CoastalWx
    If you look at it hemispherically and want to see how things like tropical cyclones enhance the jet, it actually adds some value. Stuff like that is cool. I know a met at BOX who probably would love to use that word..
  8. CoastalWx
    LOL, yeah. Unfortunately not a lot of operational value there..but good weenie stuff.
  9. CoastalWx
    Well done.
  10. CoastalWx
    12z GFS FV3 has a more SWFE look to it. And Dear God...Santa brought us some new tools for Pivotal Weather. Awesome we can get so many soundings now.
  11. CoastalWx
    Yeah I agree with Will. If anything maybe it means some areas start as snow is the precip can break out well ahead, plowing into HP. I’ll give it a shot for a partial SWFE for SNE, just keep expectations real.
  12. CoastalWx
    Feel like it will be tough to avoid the cutter after. That ridging in the EPO domain and eventually onto the West Coast will cause the s/w to dive south in the desert southwest. I guess the good news is that it may be weak and lack a lot of rain for ski country, but I can't really see how that's avoided. I suppose it could be more icy in the interior perhaps.
  13. CoastalWx
    Yeah as long at it stays like that and doesn't get shredded out. Would be a nice festive deal.
  14. CoastalWx
    I think it’s less than that. Probably an inch maybe two in spots.
  15. CoastalWx
    Euro has a potent vort but surprised how dry it is. It can’t really get a surface reflection and inflow Going. Despite that, probably a mid level magic band somewhere in there.
  16. CoastalWx
    I’ll take a 12/31/08 too.
  17. CoastalWx
    Right. I’m just hoping we avoid a total dud through 1/1. There’s some support for something near the 30-31 too, so I feel like we can at least grab a few between now and then.
  18. CoastalWx
    It’s still real weak And might not be much of a thing. Guidance has been on and off with a separate thing sort of breaking off from the potential cutter.
  19. CoastalWx
    KGW
  20. CoastalWx
    The pattern looks to be after New Year’s right now. I don’t count a little snow and then the cutter deep winter.
  21. CoastalWx
    He's like a human Yoda.
  22. CoastalWx
    Yeah that destroyed the 15-20" that fell from the Jan storm in a lot of areas, esp coastal areas.
  23. CoastalWx
    Wow nice.
  24. CoastalWx
    Where were you in 78?
  25. CoastalWx
    Yep. Hopefully we can snag an event or two prior. I could see the 27-28 trend flatter and/or south..but I'm expecting something non-wintry for my area anyways.
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