Sey-Mour Snow
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Everything posted by Sey-Mour Snow
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Been following this hi-res guidance really hitting this hard, may need a thread for this by tomorrow..
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Agree the 19-20th has always been the higher ceiling setup than 16-17.. However, Ensembles were hitting 16-17 just as hard in the last 72 hours on both GEFS and EPS before becoming much more tame the past 24-36 hours on all guidance.. The theme continues to be for these signals to dampen the closer we get.
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GEPS with a big jump SE and weak interesting considering the op look… -
1/13/24 Sultan Slicer #2 - Heavy rain, snow, wind?
Sey-Mour Snow replied to Torch Tiger's topic in New England
CT knows how to jack rainfall .. unreal .. another 1.5 to 2.5" likley with iso 3 in the favored rainforests -
@bluewavein the NYC forum posted a gif of EURO situation it was well SE at 100 hours only to make a massive NW shift the next few runs in the 90-102 hour range.. So i guess it has happened before with the EURO.. Feb 7 2021 ..
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No doubt there are major differnces in GFS/EURO there at starting around 60 hours and the differnces increase pretty dramatically by 80-90 hours..
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The NBM is 5-7" for most of New England and the EURO has a 1002mb low 250 miles SE of the benchmark inside 100 hours.. When have we ever seen that? I've seen times recently when euro has had a significant snow storm while nothing else bites inside 100 hours only for the EURO to be 100% wrong.
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zero consistency with anything , total toss up atm IMO . 00z gfs lost tuesday mostly and grabbed the wednesday wave, 06z likes both waves , EURO lost ? Or is the king onto something before everything else .. 6z gefs amped again
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The control run which always follows the op was 500 miles plus NW.. looking at the indies there’s several monster hits for many on this board ..
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Several bombs (975mb range) , at least half of the gefs members have bombs going past benchmark into Gulf of Maine.. Huge mean this far out 5-7" for most of this forum on GEFS.
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Too cold most of the column it would just be sleet
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Exactly for us coast folks we much rather pull this NW than SE
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Liking the progession in the PAC in the long range (13-15 on ensembles) after the transient possible mild-up... Really nice to see everything moving along as planned ..
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If you can't find the pattern change, I'd reccommend some Bifocals.
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I'm just focusing on Tuesday for now, but ya 980 Delmarva-960 MVY -945 near MT. Washington...
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Why would we want the worst of the cold here? That would ensure cold and dry with no snowpack since most in SNE will have no snow by Saturday morning
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Yes GEFS looked way better I forgot to include that in the post
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A bit SE of the great 12z run on EPS , and also later devloping , still some great hits and very strong lows around BM.. Still a great mean of 4-6" for this forum less SW and more NE as most members really get going in gulf of Maine
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6z gfs with a massive cave to euro with a stronger slower low like the Euro had on the jan 10th 00z run.. not good verbatim .. a lot to iron out on guidacne in that timeframe
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Solid storm for most on this forum, but it will change a bunch more as this is a day 5.5 to day 6 storm depending on guidance.. Euro still bombs out on that run down to 985mb 200 miles east of the cape..
