Roger Smith

The entry form now contains snowfall to date for all twenty locations, as you probably are aware, the contest runs from October to May and so these amounts would be part of your forecast totals. MQT already up to almost 40 inches. The amount shown for YXU - Tillsonburg is likely about 4" short of current totals after squalls hit that area today. (this station updates two days behind the others)

Hudson Bay rapidly freezing over this week, James Bay already half frozen (western half). This is allowing frigid arctic air to arrive in northern Ontario with less than usual early season modification. Looks like a very potent lake effect setup for tomorrow into Thursday. WNW type localized squalls with 12-24" potential. This reminds me of Nov 1976 when all lakes in central Ontario froze over a month to six weeks ahead of schedule and Dec-Jan were brutally cold, Feb-Mar 1977 turned exceptionally warm.

I may be describing what they were doing 30-40 years ago and perhaps now they have other methods worked out. But if it's what I think it is, the choice of the analogue year is based on whatever considerations may be available just like you see other LRFs on this site being developed from analogue years, chosen for some reason such as similar El Nino, similar Pacific etc. The only difference would be the date shifting for lunar dates. But while some researchers have gone down that lunar road to a conclusion where they think the Moon is a big player, my own research points to the idea that the Moon is just strong enough to modulate the ingredients it is forced to handle by the teleconnections. So the date shifting times the highs and lows, then hopefully the storm tracks are accurate because of the analogue year being a good one. If you choose the wrong analogue year and date shift, you'll still see some ghostly correlations because the timing of highs and lows somewhere close to your region will be the same. But the temperature field will be all wrong. That would perhaps happen if it's going to be a cold winter and they choose 2012 as their analogue.

When I was starting my research many years ago, I looked at some of their forecasts. This would have been around 1981-84. It became obvious to me that their method had something to do with picking an analogue winter and date shifting it to match lunar dates of the current winter. Here's a hypothetical example. You think 1909-10 will be a good analogue for 2018-19. Maybe solar activity and other teleconnections come into the decision too. So you look up the lunar dates for 1910, compare them to 2019, and shift the weather data already recorded for 1910 to the 2019 corresponding dates. It can't be more than 15 days different to shift either forward or backward to match them up. (I have not quoted a real analogue year here, nor have I looked up the difference in lunar dates). Every 19 years the moon has similar dates, also 8 and 11 years are small corrections. That means little to chances of choosing those years because the moon is only viewed as a sort of modulator of the overall weather pattern, not the creator of it. So if the overall setup looks good in the analogue winter, the number of days you have to shift is not a big concern. I'll follow this thread, and perhaps I can tell you from the results which analogue winter they are using and reveal the date shift involved. Then you can predict what the Almanac will predict from looking at that analogue winter and shifting the dates accordingly. Let's hope 2009-2010 is it. If so, the shift will be about -9 days (lunar events in that winter ran 9 days later than this winter). That makes the period Jan 21 to Feb 19 look very enticing (because it snowed several times Jan 30 to Feb 28 of 2010). If I had to use this method alone, I might just choose 2009-2010 and date shift it myself. The one thing that they might or might not realize is that date shifting requires some phase alterations because some lunar events shift slightly different numbers of days, so just because you have a stellar analogue ten days later than your winter forecast of choice does not mean you can do a seamless date shift of ten days, some parts have to be shifted more like eight or twelve days. And that might concentrate or defuse a storm system to have the two separate energy sources shifting different amounts. Just picking a year at random and lunar-date-shifting won't be very useful because you might randomly select a totally different pattern. This only works (to some extent) if you have a good pattern match. Another variable that doesn't shift seamlessly is lunar distance, the perigee cycle is independent of phase and declination. Perigee analogues are found every 9 years back (8.86 if you want to be more precise). And hey lookee there, 2019-9 = 2010. Hmm.

I was living in southern or central Ontario from a young age (let's say 1960s) to 1995. From my own experience and memory, these storms are memorable: 1. Severe blizzard on April 2-3 1975 in central Ontario, not much was lake effect but a total of 27" fell then drifted to 8 feet in places. Highways were blocked and people stranded for several days. 2. The blizzard of '78, although I was on the milder side of it working at a weather office of a private company in Toronto. You can imagine the shock we had drawing up the 12z map on Jan 26/78. So the experience was somewhat vicarious looking at the observations coming in from the heavy snow zone, while Toronto was getting very strong south to southwest winds but very cold air and blowing snow. 3. Tons and tons of lake effect in various winters of the 1970s, but the storms at end of January 1971 were most memorable, blocking roads for weeks in some parts of central Ontario. 4. A bit earlier while I was still in high school, a heavy snowstorm on Feb 25, 1965 dropped a level 18 inches west of Toronto. That was the heaviest snow I had seen or measured with my fairly new weather station. It was almost matched by 16 inches on Jan 22-23, 1966. 5. Northeast of Toronto at Lakefield ON, in Dec 1992, around the 9th or 10th, we had 22 inches level with no drifting, from a complex nor'easter and Great Lakes low. Had to go out and drive in that to pick up a paycheque. At least it wasn't blowing around. I guess I should give honorable mention to snow that fell on the last day of September 1974. That was the only measurable snow I ever saw in September. About an inch or two maybe. I remember the storm that Chicagoland had in Jan 1967, it was a bit less extreme for me, a mixture of sleet, snow and rain with thunder. The more memorable part of it was a temperature near 60 F that I recorded the day before it arrived. I got stuck once in Buffalo driving back from PA, think it was around the last day of November 1979. Not the biggest Buffalo snowfall ever but enough to close all the highways for several hours. Funny how you can remember day to day weather events from half a century ago and I would struggle to describe the weather here last week.

Note to contest entrants -- feel free to edit to Nov 30th, I don't make any copies of your posts until after that deadline, so no need to flag an edit ... and be aware that contest runs start to end of season so anything that happens in November counts. MQT already has 20.6" of snow this season FYI.

Thanks for sharing that, another cold and snowy outlook for the northeast. With regard to January and my own suspicion that there's a brief relaxation of the cold during early January, I wonder if the pattern may resemble either 1933-34 or 1947-48 to some extent, with some records falling in late December and again in late January or February. It could point to good snowstorm potential on either side of that milder interval. I like the period just before Christmas for a major snowfall event.

As there seems to be little indication of further tropical storm activity, I have revised the provisional scoring to the assumption of a 15 8 2 seasonal and 0 0 0 Nov-Dec finish. The old scoring for 16 8 2 and 1 0 0 can still be seen in the post, located several posts back in the thread and edited today. This places AfewUniversesbelownormal in first place with UIWWildThing just 0.5 behind. However, as I assigned monthlies to AfewUniv (as with Contest Normal and NHC who also scored higher than any of our forecasts) if this is the final result I would say that UIWWildThing has a claim on the contest win with actual monthly forecasts supplied. Jburns has moved back into third and snowlover2 is at fourth in this update. BlunderStorm is fifth and NCforecaster89 is sixth. I have an excel file created to back up the scoring, which I will post at the official end of the contest. Just in case there is a Nov-Dec storm, the old 16 8 2 / 1 0 0 scoring system is available in the scoring tables, in smaller print below the current versions. Alternate scoring for Leslie's status by months can also be seen in this scoring post. That would change the order around a little, but the contest scoring rules are the basis for the main scoring table.

We'll get our field of entries, deadline is end of the month so no worries ... ... and I fixed the non-updated portion of the entry form, now reads correctly ... My long-range forecast in general is looking for at least normal snowfall and perhaps a bit above in the upper Midwest, probably a lot of changes in pattern throughout, a bit of everything sort of a winter ahead. Sometimes that kind of winter produces a memorable storm though. More lake effect than last winter however, so have bumped up those lake effect locations. ENTRY FORM APN __ 90.5 ORD __ 35.0 CLE __ 80.0 CMH __ 27.0 DET __ 45.0 FWA __ 30.0 GRR __ 90.0 GRB __ 70.0 IND __ 27.0 LSE __ 55.0 YXU __ 87.0 SDF __ 10.5 MQT __200.5 MKE __ 45.5 MSP __ 66.0 MLI __ 39.0 PAH __ 12.0 PIA __ 30.0 STL __ 14.5 YYZ __ 55.0 Tiebreakers 1. December 2018 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) _ 13.5 2. January 2019 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) _ 10.0 3. February 2019 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) _ 12.5 =========================================================================================

--- -- <<<<==== Updated Annual Scoring Jan - Nov 2018 ====>>>> -- ----   Part One: Eastern and Central (Original Six) ... best scores, first six numbers are for six locations, next two for eastern and central totals, then months won (red) ... station totals in red indicate best total scores, eastern and central in bold indicate best subtotals. ... when normal or consensus have high scores, forecasters with high scores also shown. ... May best scores indicated for both "AfewUniverses b n" and if he had one, for any regular, marked* ... these second awards would be withdrawn if "AfewU bn" enters at least five three months including May by end of year (so far only two, May and July). ... as an example, 2* for me at DCA would revert to 1 if withdrawn, any 1* would revert to 0 (these may change to higher values in later months) ... same protocol will be applied to any high scores of Mercurial, JAN high scores c/e and all nine, and four other added regular forecaster high scores marked ^ ... ... but H2O (one ATL Jan) was tied already so no high score added (dmillz25 had same score marked as high score already). ... in the western contest, Cerakoter1984 had high score for PHX in April, regular forecaster RodneyS adds one there (marked #) ... same for NRGJeff's high score PHX in January (Rodney S adds another, so the # denotes 2 added now) ... note the cut-off for this will be three months entered, meaning H20_Town_WX, mappy, Orangeburgwx retain sole possession of their high scores. ... if any of the 2-forecast people mentioned above enter again, the relevant regular forecaster add-ons will be withdrawn.  FORECASTER _______ DCA _NYC _BOS __ east ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ cent ___ TOTAL __ Best scores Roger Smith ________752 _748 _725 ___ 2225 ____ 571 _654 _542 ____1767 ___ 3992 __3*4*2 14*1 .3.1 __ MAY wxallannj __________ 640 _651 _695 ____1986 ____ 584 _584 _666 ____1834 ___ 3820 ___ 001 101 .0.1 T Scotty Lightning ___627 _683 _662 ___ 1972 ____ 558 _564 _655 ____1777 ___ 3749 __3^33 203 .4^.1_JAN^ OCT NOV T BKViking _________ 621 _660 _656 ____1937 ____ 538 _575 _699 ____1812 ___ 3749 ___ 001 000 .0.1 ___Consensus ______ 627 _630 _638 ____1895 ____ 549 _603 _676 ____1828 ___ 3723 ___ 000 100 .0.0 DonSutherland.1 ____ 639 _625 _630 ____1894 ____ 504 _662 _640 ____1806 ___ 3700 ___ 000 221 .0.2 hudsonvalley21 _____ 585 _615 _606 ____1806 ____ 493 _609 _768 ___ 1860___ 3666 ___ 100 001 .0.0 Stebo _____________ 585 _616 _609 ____1810 ____ 568 _594 _681 ____1843 ___ 3653 ___ 020 112 .0.1 wxdude64 _________ 664 _647 _616 ____1927 ____ 536 _566 _623 ____1725 ___ 3652 ___34^0 002 .2.1 Tom ______________ 634 _632 _647 ____1913 ____ 519 _629 _586 ____1734 ___ 3647 ___ 101 000 .0.0 _ JUN RodneyS ___________577 _592 _578 ____1747 ____ 574 _595 _660 ____1829 ___ 3576 ___ 210 212 .0.5 _ MAR, JUL, SEP RJay ______________592 _578 _607 ____1777 ____ 469 _604 _636 ____1709 ___ 3486 ___ 123 011 .3.2 _ APR, AUG jaxjagman (-1 mo) __ 582 _587 _581 ____1750 ____ 498 _575 _645 ____1718 ___ 3468 ___ 001 000 .0.1 dmillz25 ___________ 560 _546 _523 ____1629 ____ 495 _592 _693 ____1780 ___ 3409 ___ 000 011 .0.0 ___Normal _________553 _628 _604 ____1785 ____ 537 _531 _553 ____1621 ___ 3406 ___ 112 222 .1.1__JAN^ NOV so_whats_happening*_327 _375_398 ____1100 ____ 360 _423 _400 ____1183 ___ 2283 ___ 000 111 .0.1 __ FEB mappy (5/11) ________170 _185 _255 ____ 610 ____ 155 _230 _216 ____ 601 ___ 1211 ___ 001 000 .0.0 Orangeburgwx_(5/11) _179 _235 _269 ____ 683 ____ 154 _135 _233 ____ 522 ____1205 ___ 001 01*0 .0.0 afewUniverses bn (2) _ 114 _122 _144 ____ 380 ____ 139 _108 _180 ____ 427 ____ 807 ___ 110 011 .0.0 Mercurial (2/11) _____ 146 _150 _133 ____ 429 ____ 110 _132 _084 ____ 326 ____ 755 ___ 110 000 .1.0 __ JAN H2O_Town_WX (3/11)_086 _105 _155 ____ 346 ____ 158 _052 _051 ____ 261 ____ 607 ___ 001 000 .0.0 H2O ___(2/11) ______ 094 _091 _071 ____ 256 ____ 056 _125 _072 ____ 253 ____ 509 ___ 000 010 .0.0 nrgJeff _ (2/11) ______116 _092 _064 ____ 272 ____ 004 _095 _037 ____ 136 ____ 408 ___ buckeyefan (1 mo J) _ 050 _066 _048 ____ 164 ____ 018 _092 _036 ____ 146 ____ 310 ___ Cerakoter1984 (1moA)_060_062 _062 ____ 184 ____ 020 _050 _036 ____ 106 ____ 290 ___ tnweathernut(1 mo J)_ 067_056 _036 ____ 159 ____ 029 _067 _023 ____ 119 ____ 278 ___ CPcantmeasuresnow _ 002 _000 _000 ____ 002 ____ 038 _008 _040 ____ 086 ____ 088 ___ _________ (1 mo F) _^^ note: * so_whats_happening missed July, September, October, November all shown (2/11) missed March to November, Orangeburgwx (5/11) missed January, July to November  ... mappy (5/11) missed June to November, and H2OTown_wx (3/11) missed April to November.   Part Two: Western and All Nine contests  ... best total scores in red for three locations, best scores in months shown after total score, high western totals  for months in red ... all nine totals are shown with ranks, order of table is western scoring ... see note before first section for explanation of symbols beside best scores ...  FORECASTER __________ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ____ TOTAL (west) __ best scores (mo) ____ All Nine (= rank) Scotty Lightning (SD) ____ 609 _ 750 _ 716 ____ 2075 __________1 1 2 __ Apr, Aug __ 5824 (= 1) _OCT, NOV RodneyS_______________ 690 _ 694 _ 637 ____ 2021 __________ 2 4#2 __May, Oct__ 5597 (= 7) MAR,APR,JUL wxallannj ______________ 614 _ 746 _ 603 _____1963 __________2 1 1 __ Mar, Nov __ 5783 (= 3) BKViking _______________515 _ 729 _ 718 ____ 1962 __________ 0 1 1 ____________ 5711 (= 4) __ JUN hudsonvalley21 _________ 579 _ 669 _ 683 _____1931 __________ 0 2 2 __ Jul ______ 5607 (= 6) DonSutherland.1 ________ 538 _ 698 _ 689 _____1925 __________2^1 1 __ Jan _____ 5625 (= 5) _ JAN^ __ Consensus __________ 560 _ 716 _ 646 _____1922 __________ 0 1 0 ____________5645 (= 5) Tom __________________ 626 _ 700 _ 578 _____1904 __________ 1 1 0 ____________5551 (= 8) RJay __________________570 _ 651 _ 656 _____1877 __________ 3 1 1 __ Sep ______5363 (= 9) __ SEP dmillz25 _______________ 541 _ 714 _ 611 _____1866 __________ 0 1 0 _ Jun ______ 5275 (=11) Roger Smith ____________467 _ 622 _ 720 _____1809 __________ 2 0 2 __ Jan ______ 5801 (= 2) __ MAY __Normal ______________578 _ 648 _ 616 _____1842 __________ 2 1 1 ____________ 5248 (=13) __ FEB wxdude64 _____________ 544 _ 596 _ 541 _____1681 __________ 0 1 0 ____________ 5333 (=10) jaxjagman __(-1 mo) ____ 427 _ 577 _ 582 _____1586 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 5054 (=13) Stebo _________________ 444 _ 647 _ 368 _____1459 __________ 1 0 0 __ Nov _____ 5112 (=12) so_whats_happening* ____313 _ 445 _ 379 _____1137 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 3420 (=14) __ FEB Orangeburgwx (5/11)_____251 _ 345 _ 289 _____ 885 __________ 1 3 1 __ Feb ______ 2090 (=15) mappy (5/11) ___________124 _ 208 _ 179 _____ 511 __________ 0 0 0 ____________ 1722 (=16) H2OTown__WX (3/11) ___ 053 _ 180 _ 139 _____ 372 __________ 0 0 0 ______________ 979 (=20) afewUniv bn (2 mo May,Jul)132 _ 172 _ 024 _____ 328 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1135 (=17) Mercurial __ (2/11) ______ 080 _ 120 _ 078 _____ 278 __________ 1 0 0 _____________1033 (=18) __ JAN nrgJeff ____ _(2/11) _____ 042 _ 084 _ 060 _____ 186 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 594 (=21) H2O ____ (2/11) ________ 052 _ 082 _ 047 _____ 181 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 690 (=19) cerakoter1984 (1 mo Apr) _ 000 _ 080 _ 078 _____ 158 __________ 0 1 0 _____________ 448 (=22) tnweathernut (1 mo Jan) __045 _ 058 _ 050 _____ 153 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 431 (=24) buckeyewx __(1 mo Jan) __042 _ 034 _ 046 _____ 122 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 432 (=23) CPcantmeasuresnow (1-F)_ 000 _ 030 _ 012 _____ 042 __________ 0 0 0 _____________ 130 (=25)  __________________________________________________________________________________________________  Regional Rumble ... ... (_ Total scores January - November _) REGION _________ Eastern __ Central __ Western ___ TOTAL __ behind leader New York City _____ 2273 ____ 2186 ____ 2361 _____ 6820 ______0 Mid-Atlantic _______ 2267 ____ 2220 ____ 2143 _____ 6630 ____190 Philadelphia _______ 2321 ____ 1959 ____ 2147 _____ 6427 ____393 Central + Western __2379 ____ 1906 ____ 1854 _____ 6140 ____ 680 __ Consensus _____ 1895 ____ 1828 ____ 1922 _____ 5645 ____1175 __ Normal ________ 1785 _____1621 ____ 1842 _____ 5248 ___ 1572 Great Lakes Oh Val _ 1810 ____ 1843 _____1459 _____ 5112 ___ 1708 Tenn Valley _______ 1798 ____ 1718 ____ 1596 _____ 5112 ___ 1706 _______________________________________________________________________

Final scoring for November 2018 Scoring for DCA, NYC, BOS, ORD, ATL, and IAH will be based on "minimum progression" as raw scores were all under 60 (except for BOS, way under). Scores will fall in the progression from 60 to 5 points for rank ordered scores of the twelve forecasters. Normal when closer will get 65 points. Otherwise normal and consensus are scored from their position relative to the twelve rank ordered scores. With twelve, it's a simple progression, from 60 down to 5 points. The three western locations score normally this month. FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent ___ c/e___DEN_PHX_SEA __ west ___ TOTAL ___ Normal ________________65 _ 65 _ 65 __ 195 __ 55 _ 60 _ 60__ 175__ 370 ___90 _ 94 _ 38 ___ 222 ___ 592 ___ Normal _raw scores _____ 38 _ 34 _ 64 ___ 136 __ 00 _ 26 _ 28 __ 054 __ 190 ____90 _ 94 _ 38 ___ 222 ___ (412) Scotty Lightning ____________ 60 _ 60 _ 60 __180 __ 45 _ 50 _ 50 __ 145 __ 325 ___80 _ 74 _ 48 ___ 202 ____527 Stebo _____________________50 _ 60 _ 55 __ 165 __ 45 _ 30 _ 35 __ 110 __ 275 ___ 94 _ 84 _ 14 ___ 192 ____ 467 wxallannj __________________30 _ 45 _ 45 __ 120 __ 60 _ 20 _ 15 __ 095 __ 215 ___100_ 70 _ 80 ___ 250____ 465 BKViking __________________ 35 _ 35 _ 40 __ 110 __ 50 _ 55 _ 55 __ 160 __ 270 ___ 52 _ 58 _ 68 ___ 178 ____ 448 Roger Smith _______________ 60 _ 60 _ 55 __ 175 __ 25 _ 20 _ 20 __ 065 __ 240 ___ 50 _ 54 _ 82 ___ 186 ____ 426 Tom ______________________45 _ 45 _ 40 __ 130 __ 30 _ 35 _ 05 __ 070 __ 200 ___ 94 _ 98 _ 28 ___ 220 ____ 420 RodneyS __________________ 05 _ 10 _ 20 __ 035 __ 55 _ 60 _ 60 __ 175__ 210 ___ 80 _ 20 _ 76 ___ 176 ____ 386 ___ Consensus _____________ 30 _ 35 _ 30 __ 095 __ 30 _ 30 _ 35 __ 095 __ 190 ___ 74 _ 68 _ 52 ___ 194 ____ 384 wxdude64 _________________ 45 _ 35 _ 25 __ 105 __ 35 _ 40 _ 30 __ 105 __ 210 ___ 54 _ 52 _ 56 ___ 162 ____ 372 dmillz25 ___________________25 _ 25 _ 10 __ 060 __ 20 _ 50 _ 45 __ 115 __ 175 ___ 80 _ 74 _ 38 ___ 192 ____ 367 hudsonvalley21 _____________20 _ 25 _ 20 __ 065 __ 10 _ 30 _ 45 __ 085 __ 150 ___ 66 _ 68 _ 34 ___ 168 ____ 318 DonSutherland.1 ____________15 _ 15 _ 30 __ 060 __ 05 _ 05 _ 25 __ 035 __ 095 ___ 36 _ 60 _ 82 ___ 178 ____ 273 RJay ______________________10 _ 05 _ 05 __ 020 __ 20 _ 10 _ 10 __ 040 __ 060 ___ 70 _ 74 _ 38 ___ 182 ____ 242 _________________________________________________________________________ color codes are preserved for forecasts, these go bold if the extreme forecast is high score. Regional Rumble scores for November 2018 Region ______ eastern _ central _ western ___ TOTAL ___ new annual total ___ Normal _______195 _____ 175 _____ 222 _______ 592 _____ 5248 Philadelphia ______ 180 _____ 145 _____ 220 _______ 545 _____ 6427 (3) New York City _____120 _____ 160 _____ 250 _______ 530 _____ 6820 (1) Great Lakes / OV __ 165 _____ 110 _____ 192 _______ 467 _____ 5112 (5) Mid-Atlantic ______ 105 _____ 175 _____ 176 _______ 456 _____ 6630 (2) Central+Western __ 175 _____ 065 _____ 186 _______ 426 _____ 6140 (4) ___ Consensus ____ 095 _____ 095 _____ 194 _______ 384 _____ 5645 _____________________________________________________________________________

2018-19 Snowfall forecast contest ... moved to Dec thread ... this represents situation at end of Nov 2018 ... FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV Snowfall to date __________ 1.4 __ 6.4 __ 0.1 ___12.7 __ 6.7 __13.5 ___ 6.7 __ 0.0 __19.4 RJay __________________ 33.0 _54.0 _ 70.0 __ 30.0 _ 38.0 _100.0___ 65.0 __ 6.0 _100.0 DonSutherland.1 ________ 32.5 _ 50.0 _ 57.5 __ 48.5 _ 53.5 _110.0___ 52.0 __ 3.5 _ 93.0 Tom __________________ 26.3 _ 56.4_ 65.6 __ 29.6 _ 41.6 _ 95.2 ___ 62.3 __ 1.9 _ 89.6 wxallannj ______________ 25.0 _ 47.0 _ 52.0 __ 49.0 _ 51.0 _ 83.0 ___ 57.0 _ 13.0_ 77.0 Scotty Lightning _________25.0 _ 42.0 _ 75.0__ 70.0_ 80.0_120.0___75.0 _ 10.0 _ 85.0 BKViking _______________24.0 _ 55.0 _ 71.0 __ 35.0 _ 39.0 _ 78.0 ___ 60.0 _ 18.0 _ 78.0 ___ Consensus _________ 24.0 _ 44.5 _ 60.9 __ 37.5 _ 44.7 _ 92.6 ___ 58.5 __ 6.4 _ 88.8 dmillz25 _______________ 24.0 _ 53.0 _ 67.0 __ 40.0 _ 37.7 _ 85.0 ___ 57.0 __ 5.0 _ 90.0 wxdude64 _____________ 22.9 _ 40.6 _ 59.7 __ 38.9 _ 45.9 _ 98.4 ___ 67.6 __ 6.7 _ 90.3 hudsonvalley21 _________ 22.0 _ 40.0 _ 62.0 __ 36.0 _ 48.2 _101.5___ 51.0 __ 5.7 _ 88.0 Roger Smith ____________18.0 _ 28.0 _ 45.0 __ 30.5 _ 35.5 _ 90.0 ___ 60.5 _ 10.0 _ 78.0 Stebo _________________ 13.2 _ 34.3 _ 53.5 __ 33.5 _ 47.0 _ 87.0 ___ 37.0 _ 10.7 _ 97.0 RodneyS _______________12.5 _ 25.0 _ 37.5 __ 41.0 _ 43.5 _ 89.0 ___ 52.5 __ 4.5 _ 73.0 _____________________________________________________________________ High forecasts in bold, low forecasts in italic. Consensus is median, average of 6th and 7th ranked forecasts. Normal will be added later from NWS daily climate data snowfalls late in season. ... watch for updates to season totals and this post will migrate to new months as we move along ...

After reading the other outlooks being offered, and considering how they might offer any insights into big picture and details of this forecast, I feel that these forecasts are consistent with my scenario with perhaps some caution suggested on the very mild turn in January being more of a stale Pacific type than a really strong torch ... I happen to remember the winter of 1963-64 in some detail because I started observing (my amateur weather station) then, in southern ON what I remember is a very cold and somewhat snowy December (after a warm autumn), a rapid change to quite mild weather most of January, an east coast snowstorm but no snow of any consequence around Toronto, a very sunny and dry February (record high sunshine amounts), then a rather wintry March and early April, followed by a very warm May. I'm not sure that I like the 1963-64 analogue all that much with the different lead in and set-up in Europe apparently heading in a somewhat different direction. But to some extent, I agree it's a difficult winter to find a really compelling analogue anyway. There may be one way back in the 19th century, 1826-27 caught my attention for high correlations of CET in 1826. But data for North America are quite patchy for that winter. Bottom line is to trust the research on the general trend and try to build a scenario from the more obvious large scale building blocks. So I continue to think it will be a winter in two parts for the northeast and mid-Atlantic, with good opportunities for snowfall in December and again by late January into February, fading by late February. For postulated amounts, I will go with 15-20" DCA, 25-35" IAD and BWI, 35-40" PHL-EWR-NYC-LI, 40-50" coastal sNE and 60-80" inland central New England incl ORH over to Albany, 80-110" in northern New England, also generally near normal amounts of snowfall in the Great Lakes except for a few higher pockets in Wisconsin and south central Michigan, northern Indiana. Snowfall may then trend to somewhat below normal in the central plains and a bit above normal in the northern plains trending to below normal in Montana and southern Alberta. Best opportunities for winter storms in the northeast will be around Dec 20 to 23, Jan 17 to 21 and Feb 1 to 4. An interval around Jan 3 to 7 may be stormy but too mild in the east, so that may be the big storm event for the Midwest this winter although the shape of the flow may include the Midwest in some of the other east coast peaks.

Just giving a shout out and a link to the Northeast U.S. snow forecast site, which will be hosting its 18th annual seasonal contest and (for specific storms) the 20th annual storm forecasting contest. This is already popular with several names you may recognize from American Weather forums. The link is here: http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES and I would encourage you to click on the weblog site for interesting snow-related climate analysis posts. Not sure if the organizer is a member of Am-wx but I think many of the participants are. The deadline for winter seasonal forecasts (for 25 locations in the eastern U.S.) is Nov 30 and the season used for verification is December through March only, so scale 'em back a little from your seasonals in total. Storm contests happen five to ten times a winter on average and are announced a couple of days ahead of the deadlines. If this didn't exist, I would do it here, but it's already being done very well there -- so be there, or be square. Meanwhile, if you want the same sort of opportunity in the Midwest U.S., check out the snowfall contest in the Great Lakes / Ohio valley subforum and of course there is also the highly popular Mid Atlantic four station forecast contest in the MA subforum. Surprised there isn't one in the New England subforum but I guess they compare posted forecasts so it's about the same thing without a dedicated thread.

I guess his examples are low solar in terms of sunspot minimum between two active peaks (1989, 2001, then 2014) -- 2014 being less active than most of the 20th century. However, there are climatological differences between the two kinds of low solar (temporary, prolonged) in terms of background temperatures. The current solar situation closely resembles the mid Dalton (taking 1787, 1801-04 and 1815-16 as analogues for 1989, 2001 and 2014), which means we would be around 1820 for a good solar analogue. No idea if there was any sort of measurement on SOI that far back. I have some climate data for Marietta, OH for winters of 1819-20 and 1820-21, as well as some data from Eastmain near Hudson Bay and some notes about St Louis from a former colleague. I see the following info for 1819-20 ... a rather mild winter in general, especially mid-February with readings into the 70s at St Louis and low 60s at Marietta, and very cold in Britain (Jan CET was among the five coldest). For 1820-21, Marietta was colder in January (24th to 26th subzero cold) and Eastmain had a much harsher winter than the previous year, while in Britain it was closer to normal although still slightly on the cold side. Using the El Nino low solar list above, another good analogue would appear to be 1900-1901. The period from 1875 to 1912 was prolonged low solar relative to decades on either side. Peaks in 1883, 1893 and 1905-07 were all below the strong category. 1900-01 (if that's what the 1900 snowfall comment refers to) appears to be a rather weak case for a cold, snowy winter. I don't expect it will prove to be an indicator either, in part because of the strong outflow from the central arctic cold anomaly that has been ongoing since late summer. The extensive smoke from western wildfires in Canada and the USA may have contributed to this anomaly as temperatures began to drop sharply in Alberta during a month-long smoky period (sky conditions around August 20th-21st on my return journey home from vacation were similar to what I see outside now, one quarter mile obscured vis in smoke haze -- eventually that started to reduce insolation over a large part of the central regions of Canada too). Perhaps 1902-03 will turn out to be a better analogue, I see that one had a decent snowfall at Boston. Interestingly, 1888 might be reasonably similar for solar, not sure about El Nino.

I am trying to follow this discussion and I don't understand how the chart of low-solar El Nino years leads to the comments about 1900, 1994, and 2006, first of all, are those calendar year snowfalls or winter snowfalls? If winter snowfalls, is 1900 the winter of 1899-1900 or 1900-1901? Then I can see how it fits the list of low solar El Ninos. Thanks. Also (raindancewx), where can I see your long-range forecast? Ray, I tend to agree broadly with your outlook although I suspect winter snowfalls may be a bit closer to normal than you're predicting simply because I think the cold, dry air may push out a bit further than ideal for New England snow.

Still it's a 35-20 win for IAD, right?

Anomaly tracker and forecasts ... ... ... color code shows the actual value that compares with various forecasts. _date_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ Actual anomalies ___ _08________ (7d) ____________ +4.5 _+5.6 _+7.3 ___--1.5 _+1.2 _+3.4 ___--2.1 _+0.9 _+5.9 _15_______ (14d) ____________ --0.6 _--0.1 _+2.1 ___--7.4 _--2.9 _--4.9 ___--5.1 _--1.2 _+2.5 _22________(21d) ____________--1.8 _--2.3 _--0.7 ___--7.4 _--3.5 _--6.1 ___--3.0 _--0.9 _+2.7 _25_______ (24d) ____________ --3.0 _--4.1 _--2.6 ___--6.0 _--3.8 _--5.1 ___--1.4 _--0.8 _+2.6 _29________(28d) ____________--2.9 _--3.5 _--1.9 ___--6.2 _--4.4 _--5.0 ___--0.7 _--0.3 _+3.0 ___ 7d NWS forecasts ___ _08______ (p 14d) ____________+1.0 _+1.3 _+1.8 ___--6.0 _--3.5 _--3.0 ___--4.7 _--1.2 _+2.0 _15______ (p 21d) ____________--2.0 _--1.8 _--1.5 ___--7.8 _--4.0 _--5.0 ___--5.5 _--1.5 _+1.8 _22______ (p 28d) ____________--2.8 _--2.5 _--2.2 ___--6.0 _--4.0 _--4.8 ___--1.5 _--0.6 _+2.5 ___ Longer range forecasts incl GFS ___ _08______ (p 24d) ____________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+2.0 ___--2.0 __0.0 _+0.5 ___--1.0 __0.0 _+0.5 _15______ (p 30d) ____________ --2.6 _--2.5 _--2.4 ___--6.0 _--3.5 _--4.0 ___--3.5 _--1.0 _+1.5 _21______ (p 30d) ____________ --2.6 _--2.5 _--2.4 ___--6.0 _--3.5 _--4.0 ___--1.0 _--0.5 _+2.0 ___ Updated provisionals from 25th to 30th (NWS) ___ _25 ______ (p30d) ____________ --2.5 _--3.0 _--2.0 ___--5.0 _--4.0 _--4.0 ___--1.0 _--0.5 _+2.0 _29 ______ (p30d) ____________ --2.8 _--3.0 _--2.0 ___--6.0 _--4.0 _--4.3 ___--0.5 _--0.5 _+3.0 ___ Final anomalies for November 2018 ___ _________ (30d) ______________--3.1_--3.3_--1.8 ___--5.7_--3.7_--3.6 ___--0.5_--0.3_+3.1 8th _ Much colder next week in most of the country, but the interval 15th to 24th on the GFS appears somewhat warmer than average for most, __ __ __ have estimated about +3 to +5 for the period, which brings most of the large negatives created next week back towards normal in central regions. 15th _ The NWS 7d forecasts for the 14th worked out quite well in general, average error under 0.9 deg with IAH falling a bit more than expected, -24 anomaly on 13th and -21 on 14th quite extreme. The end of month projection is now quite cold in the east with little if any warming shown on the GFS beyond the cold seven day NWS period to 21st, have set anomalies for the nine remaining days at -4 in east, -2 central and near normal in west for that extension of the p21d forecasts. Outcomes are generally colder than all forecasts. Scoring looks like I could do it now since it will be mostly a case of rank ordering boosted scores to a max of 60 per station, PHX and SEA at least will have some actual scores. 22nd _ The NWS 7d forecasts were generally good, except for DEN which stayed warmer than expected by over 2 degrees. This has led to significant adjustments of end of month provisional there, and also slight boosts for PHX and SEA. The other six locations will apparently finish well below scoring range and the previous estimates are being held with less than 0.2 adjustments suggested. Scoring for these six will go from rank order "max 60" rule even if they all gain a full degree of warming (ORD needs 3). Minor changes to provisional scoring (mostly extra points) will be seen shortly. 25th _ Comparing actuals through 24 days with the 16-day extended forecast made on the 8th, it appears that either the GFS underestimated the cold outbreak or I made a large subjective error in reading the output. Might have been a combination of those two things, but the forecasts were about as far off as our earlier consensus. West fared somewhat better. The adjustments to end of month anomalies are too small to remove any of the first six from "ranked order max 60" scoring, and the three western provisionals are being held as previously, hence no changes needed in the provisional scoring tables. 29th _ The NWS forecasts for the past week were quite close (average error .42 deg) but two of the three western stations are running a little warmer and the provisionals (and scoring) will need adjusting. The other six locations will all finish cold enough to maintain the status quo on scoring even though slight adjustments have been made to the provisionals. BOS is slightly out of range for raw scoring and the other five are quite far from producing a raw maximum of 60. Dec 1st _ Final anomalies are being posted overnight, those in bold are confirmed, the rest are based on known values for all 30 days but not yet posted. So far, the maximum raw scores for the eastern and central six are 18 (DCA), 14 (NYC), 54 (BOS), 9 (ORD), 26 (ATL) and 28 (IAH). Quite a few raw scores would be zero. Thus the requirement under the rules to set the scores with max of 60 for these locations (Normal can be higher) and an equal progression down to 5 points, for the 12 participants. Ties made this a bit irregular, for future scoring I may tweak this rule to read off a graph so that small differences don't turn into large point differentials. But anyway, we all got points we did not really earn in November. The three western stations will have the usual scoring and we did better as a group there. Because the scoring is already worked out for the eastern and central locations, that scoring table can be regarded as final now and the western scores are now also final.

The contest follows the same format as the past three winters. Predict the total seasonal snowfall (some may have already fallen at some locations) using the following table as a guide (1986-2015 average values and the past three seasons are shown) ... please use the entry form below this table. Note there are three tie-breakers involving monthly amounts at ORD, IND and DTW. As per last winter, an alternate location is needed for London (YXU) and Tillsonburg will be used. Climate stats are similar as YXU is located east of the city, Tillsonburg is about 20 miles further east. LOCATION _______________ 1986-2015 ____2015-16____ 2016-17____2017-18 Alpena, MI (APN) _____________ 80.4 _______ 88.8 _______66.4 _____ 82.5 Chicago, IL (ORD) ____________ 38.1 _______ 31.2 _______26.1 _____ 36.1 Cleveland, OH (CLE) ___________67.2 _______32.8 _______ 37.3 _____ 53.1 Columbus, OH (CMH) __________28.4 _______ 17.1 _______ 9.3 _____ 30.7 Detroit, MI (DTW) ____________ 44.8 _______ 35.3 ______ 37.9 _____ 61.0 Fort Wayne, IN (FWA) _________ 34.0 _______ 20.0 ______ 18.5 _____ 32.7 Grand Rapids, MI (GRR) ________77.1 _______ 61.1 ______ 60.1 _____ 77.7 Green Bay, WI (GRB) __________54.2 _______ 50.0 ______ 53.2 _____ 68.1 Indianapolis, IN (IND) _________ 25.9 _______ 13.3 _______9.7 _____ 23.2 La Crosse, WI (LSE) ___________46.1 _______ 40.3 ______ 42.2 _____ 49.8 London, ON (YXU) ____________ 75.7 _______ 65.2 ______ 66.1 _____ 65.7 Louisville, KY (SDF) ___________ 13.9 _______ 14.9 _______ 2.7 _____ 19.1 Marquette, MI (MQT) _________ 199.8 ______ 160.9 _____ 154.0 ____ 175.3 Milwaukee, WI (MKE) __________49.2 ________39.1 ______ 37.6 _____ 46.7 Minneapolis, MN (MSP) ________ 50.6_________36.7 ______ 32.0 _____ 78.3 Moline, IL (MLI) ______________ 33.5 ________ 24.1 ______22.4 _____ 41.7 Paducah, KY (PAH)_____________ 9.2 ________ 12.1 _______1.2 _____ 13.7 Peoria, IL (PIA) _______________24.9 ________ 15.3 ______13.9 _____ 32.1 St. Louis, MO (STL) ___________ 18.4 ________ 10.9 _______3.2 ______ 7.1 Toronto, ON (YYZ) ____________ 42.5 ________ 25.9 ______32.6 _____ 43.1 ------------------------------- --------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ENTRY FORM -- includes snowfall to date (will be updated regularly to end of entry period) ... keep in mind that your forecast should include these amounts as well as all snow for rest of season to May 31st APN __10.1" (0.2, 9.9, 0) ORD __12.7" (all Nov) CLE __ 4.4" (all Nov) CMH __ 2.1" (all Nov) DET __ 6.7" (all Nov) FWA __ 2.1" (all Nov) GRR __14.4" (all Nov) GRB __ 5.1" (Tr, 3.8, 1.3) IND __ 0.4" (all Nov) LSE __ 2.6" (0.1, 1.9, 0.6) YXU __ 3.2" (8.0 cm) (all Nov) SDF __ 0.5" (all Nov) MQT __42.4" (4.2, 37.7, 0.5) MKE __ 6.6" (all Nov) MSP __ 6.6" (0.3, 4.0, 2.3) MLI __18.6" (0.2, 18.4, 0) PAH __ 2.3" (all Nov) PIA __ 9.8" (all Nov) STL __ 5.2" (all Nov) YYZ __ 7.5" (18.8 cm) (2.4,15.6,0.8) (current updates through end of November) (amounts in brackets where they appear are Oct, Nov, Dec 1) (any snowfall on Dec 1-3 before contest deadline is added in) Tiebreakers 1. December 2018 snowfall ORD (8.5" normal) 2. January 2019 snowfall IND (8.6" normal) 3. February 2019 snowfall DTW (10.2" normal) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you want to see individual years in the 1986-2015 period, check the 2015-16 contest thread (several pages into the archives now), post number one there has a table of the 30 years in the period used. DEADLINE FOR ENTRIES __ End of day Nov 30th (06z Dec 1), could be extended if snowfall not too advanced and we need more entries _ 15-20 entries have been received the past few years.

MBY -- just add all yours together x 2

Hey, I find the NYC guys quite civil when we chat, maybe it's a weather thing, head in the clouds maybe? Don Sutherland or RJay or BKViking or Isotherm might know the answer to your questions.

He changed it ... first he forgot SBY, now he's forgetting LYH. (to be fair, if he's closest, there won't be any ties surely)

Would advise you to post that in the NYC regional forum, click on "home" at start of the navigation for this page and you'll get a menu of all forums available. This general forum (a) is not that often visited and (b) especially not by people who might know the answers to your questions. Also, as it's your first post, welcome and you'll probably find it much more rewarding to hang out with the NYC crowd (a very active forum).

Table of forecasts for November 2018 _ No late penalties so far, Jaxjagman has not entered yet. FORECASTER ______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA RodneyS __________________ +3.5 _+2.9 _+2.4 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___--1.5 _+3.7 _+1.9 RJay ______________________+3.0 _+3.0 _+3.0 __ +1.0 _+2.5 _+2.0 ___+1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0 DonSutherland.1 ____________+2.6 _+2.5 _+2.0 __ +2.5 _+2.6 _+1.4 ___+2.7 _+1.7 _+2.2 hudsonvalley21 _____________+2.2 _+2.2 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+1.9 _+1.1 ___ +1.2 _+1.3 _--0.2 dmillz25 ___________________+2.0 _+2.2 _+2.5 __ +1.0 _+1.0 _+1.1 ___--1.5 _+1.0 __0.0 wxallannj __________________+1.9 _+1.7 _+1.2 __ --0.8 _+2.0 _+1.8 ___--0.5 _+1.2 _+2.1 ___ Consensus _____________ +1.9 _+1.8 _+2.0 __ +0.7 _+1.9 _+1.2 ___+0.8 _+1.3 _+0.7 BKViking __________________ +1.8 _+1.8 _+1.9 __ +0.2 _+0.4 _+0.4 ___+1.9 _+1.8 _+1.5 wxdude64 _________________ +1.6 _+1.8 _+2.1 __ +0.6 _+1.6 _+1.3 ___+1.8 _+2.1 _+0.9 Tom ______________________ +1.6 _+1.7 _+1.9 __ +0.7 _+1.8 _+2.2 ___--0.2 _--0.2 _--0.5 Stebo ____________________ +1.2 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _+1.9 _+1.2 ___--0.8 _--1.1 _--1.2 Roger Smith _______________ +1.0 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ +0.8 _+2.0 _+1.5 ___+2.0 _+2.0 _+2.2 Scotty Lightning _____________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _+1.0 ___+0.5 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __________________________________________________ Color codes show warmest and coldest forecasts -- Normal is colder at DCA, NYC, BOS, and equal for ATL, IAH. Snowfall contest will be posted after 15th -- you can edit until then if you want.

BWI __ 43.8" DCA __ 29.2" IAD __ 42.5" RIC __ 21.0" __ SBY __ 16.5" ... gentlemen, start your snowblowers ... for the Dec 21-22 snowstorm ... slight edit upwards for BWI, DCA and IAD on Nov 12th. ... final edit Nov 26 (going up 5-7 all locations)