Roger Smith

I have updated the two scoring tables for Theta's addition to the never-ending total (29/12/5 now). With Iota forming, count is 30/12/5 and could be 30/13/6 if it does become a major hurricane. Will update the scoring later in the life cycle of Iota but can say that anyone at 20 named storms now drops to zero in the contest scoring (a) version, the average change to the beta scoring is -3 or -4 with each new named storm although if you have hurricanes or majors left to "give" your score could stay level.

My main disagreement would be early in the winter for interior western regions, I suspect it will turn out a lot colder than shown. That would only have the effect of shifting your depicted warm core a bit further east to the mid-Atlantic states possibly (with more of an up and down regime in the central plains states). Otherwise I could certainly see the scenario of a relatively mild winter getting milder towards February. This may be one of those winters like 2015-16 with a lot of mild weather but one great winter storm anyway (for the east).

BWI _ too far north to miss ... 27.5" DCA _ too far east to miss ... 19.9" IAD _ too far west to miss ... 26.8" RIC _ too far south to miss ... 15.5" SBY _ too far southeast to snow (10.5" not my tiebreaker) LYH _ too far northwest to miss ... 30.1" (tiebreaker) conclusion _ not too shabby middle of the pack winter ahead.

You are sitting on a perfect forecast of hurricanes and majors, which is no small accomplishment. If we had ended up 24/12/5 then your score in the conventional method would be 35/50 and the leaders would have had 45 and 43. About four or five of these 28 named storms were very short-lived and marginal (in my opinion), so really your forecast in the real world was quite good. In this slightly bizarro world, we are all left to fend for ourselves.

Table of forecasts for Nov 2020 FORECASTER ___________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA Roger Smith ____________ +4.5 _ +4.3 _ +4.0 ___ +4.7 _ +4.2 _ +3.0 ___ --2.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 BKViking _______________ +2.4 _ +2.3 _ +2.2 ___ +0.6 _ +2.1 _ +1.5 ___ +2.2 _ +1.7 _ +0.6 wxallannj _______________ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.7 ___ +1.4 _ +1.3 _ +0.4 ___ +1.2 _ +1.0 _ --0.8 RJay ____________________+2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 ___ +2.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 Tom ____ (-2%) __________ +1.5 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ --0.2 _ +1.6 _ +0.9 ___ +0.5 _ +1.1 _ +0.5 Consensus ______________+1.3 _ +1.2 _ +1.0 ___ +1.0 _ +1.2 _ +0.9 ___ +0.9 _ +1.1 _ +0.6 Don Sutherland.1________+1.0 _ +1.1 _ +1.0 ___ +1.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.7 ___ +3.6 _ +3.5 _ +2.1 Scotty Lightning ________ +1.0 _ +0.5 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ____ 0.0 _ +1.0 __ 0.0 hudsonvalley21 _________+0.8 _ +1.0 _ +0.8 ___ +0.4 _ +0.7 _+1.2 ___ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +1.3 RodneyS _______________ +0.7 _ +0.3 _ +0.6 ___ +2.5 _ +2.0 _ +0.9 ___ +0.3 _ +1.0 _ +1.1 wxdude64 ______________ +0.4 _ +0.7 _ +0.9 ___ +0.2 _ +0.5 _ +0.8 ___ --0.2 _ +0.8 _ +0.4 Normal __________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ______________________________________________________________________ warmest forecasts in red, coldest in blue ... Normal is colder for DCA, NYC, BOS, ATL and (tied) IAH. snowfall forecasts can be added to your post or submitted separately, up to mid-month, will signal a deadline.

Updated scoring summary for 29/12/5 _ table has been updated in more recent post FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 711 _____ 20 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 810 _____ 13 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 901 _____ 04 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 910 _____ 04 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 920 _____ 02 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 912 _____ 01 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____1000_____ 00 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____1020_____ 00 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____ 1031 _____00 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 1030 _____00 (all others drop further below 00) ================================================================= A more comparable scoring system that responds to the problem of so many weak tropical storms in the count is shown below. This one weights the number of storms at 40% but errors are more linear (average of difference, difference, and half of diff squared). The weighting for hurricanes and majors is 30% each and the scoring for those is done the same way as above Results are similar for rank ordering but perhaps capture the skill of the various forecasts a bit better ... FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 711 _____ 85 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 810 _____ 83 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 901 _____ 80 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 910 _____ 80 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 920 _____ 78 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 912 _____ 77 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____1000 _____ 76 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____1020 _____ 76 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 __10.5, 1.7, 0.1 __ 75.0 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____1030 _____ 71 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 ____1120 _____ 70 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 ____1102 _____ 70 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____1031 _____ 70 Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 ____1121 _____ 70 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 ____1221 _____ 64 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 ____ 1141 _____ 63 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 _____1230 _____62 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 _____1330 _____ 62 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 ___13 4 0.5 __ 54.5 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 _____1341 _____ 54 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 _____1441 _____ 47 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 _____1442 _____ 45 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Folks, give yourselves a pat on the back, as a group and in almost all cases, we came out ahead of the experts (I know, some of you are qualified experts). Given that the "real" count is maybe 24,12,5 with a bit of an atmosphere of find every possible marginal contender, I think the above scoring system is probably a better fit to the real differences between forecasts and the "reality" we now have (don't get me wrong, we would be into the Greek alphabet even with a very strict set of rules to eliminate the marginals, and that is still a very solid 2nd to 2005 which maybe could have had one or two more under similar counting procedures? ... matter of opinion to be certain).

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Oct) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________708_ 742_ 790 __2240 __615 _614_698__1967 __4207 __720_669_672_ 2061 ____6268 hudsonvalley21 ____________601 _694 _761 __2056 __540 _616 _733 __1889 __3945 __557_702_659_ 1918 ____5863 Don Sutherland.1 ___________662 _736_742 __2140 __585 _640 _716 __1941 __4081 __458_668_640_ 1766 ____5847 RJay _______________________680 _711 _661 __2052 __573 _646 _683 __1902 __3954 __600_634_640_ 1874 ____5828 ___ Consensus _____________598 _664 _765 __2027 __512 _618_744 __1874 __3901 __558_699_660_ 1917 ____ 5818 BKViking __________________ 569 _643 _706 __1918 __544 _545 _697__1786 __3704 __581_712_712_ 2005 ____ 5709 wxallannj __________________616 _708 _743 __2067 __458 _615 _734__1807 __3874 __548_645_632_ 1825 ____5699 Tom _______________________ 592 _648 _724 __1964__478 _644 _697__1819 __3783 __553_685_609_ 1847 ____5630 Scotty Lightning ____________514 _522 _612 __1648 __450 _623_766__1839 __3487 __506_624_652_ 1782 ____ 5269 wxdude64 __________________509 _549 _612 __1670__450 _544 _724__1718 __3388 __ 528_655_540_ 1723 ____5111 Roger Smith ________________468 _521 _620 __1609__486 _619 _650__1755 __3364 __ 558_506_478_ 1542 ____4906 ___ Normal _________________408 _432 _528 __1368 __382 _565 _636__1583 __2951 __448_496_ 612_ 1556 ____4507 Brian5671 _ (8/10) _________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313 JakkelWx _ (7/10) __________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748 yoda _ (4/10) _______________192 _ 227 _200 __ 619 __152_250 _311 __ 713 ___1332 __209 _347_210 __ 766_____2098 rclab _ (1/10) ________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 ___ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/10) ______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 ___ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/10) ______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 ___ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/10) _____________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 ___ 043 ____ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings January to October 68 of 90 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 45 for warmest and 23 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _Oct __ Standings to date RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 _ 4-1 _ ---- ___ 13-4 RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- _ 3-0 _ 2-0 __ 12-0 Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___ 11-2 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 _ 1-0 _ 0-1 __ 11-3 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 _ ---- _ 0-1 ___ 8-1 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 _ 0-1 _ 2-0 ___ 6-1 Normal ___________ 1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ 0-1 _ 1-0 ___ 5-2 Tom ______________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 ___ 4-0 yoda ______________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-1 _ 2-0 ___ 4-1 RClab _____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- ___ 2-0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- ___ 2-0 Jakkelwx __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 _ ---- ___ 2-0 hudsonvalley21 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ ---- ___ 1-0 wxallannj __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 ___ 2-1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to October Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than total of months best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. From Oct to Dec, high scores are always given among regular annual entrants when "occasional" entrants take high score awards. (* marks these) FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS _________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 _____ 4 _ Jan, Feb, May, Sep hudsonvalley21 ___________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 3 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 1*___Oct* DonSutherland.1 __________1 ___ 3 ___ 2*____2 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 2*____0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr RJay _____________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 3*___0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul ___ Consensus ____________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking _________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxallannj _________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 Tom ______________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1*_____0 Scotty Lightning __________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxdude64 ________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith ______________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 1 __ Aug Brian5671 ________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Jakkelwx _________________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Yoda _____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 1 ___ Oct RClab ____________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 ____________________________________________________________________________________ * includes one win in this category among regular entrants only (Yoda had higher score). ... this rule only applies in fourth quarter of season. ... not retroactive.

Will ask a moderator if those posts (above) perhaps should be moved to the more appropriate 2020 season discussion. Our count is now 28/12/5 (Eta has become a major now), and I suspect could change to 28/11/6 if Zeta is upgraded to major status before landfall (in the balance of time remaining this year, the contest will be scored from the official numbers at end of December). I will wait until Eta is done to change the scoring (edit, can now update as Eta has hit major). And I will work out a scoring system that will maintain the order at the top but give the lower scoring entries a chance to receive a fair scoring, the huge number of marginal storms this season has made the outcome somewhat disproportionate to effort, I think, and quite a few of the forecasts were actually quite good despite low scoring by the method in place. Perhaps a system that scores storm number by only error (not mean of error + error squared) and the already sanctioned method for hurricanes and majors will yield a result that will give us all a better picture, would get it to add up to 100 to make it more user-friendly.

+4.5 _ +4.3 _ +4.0 ___ +4.7 _ +4.2 _ +3.0 ___ --2.0 _ --0.5 _ --1.5 14.5" _28.2"_60.5" ___35.5" _39.9"_80.5" __ 55.5" _ 90.5"_ 12.5" (DTW BUF BTV for ATL IAH PHX snow)

Final scoring for October 2020 Scoring is based on final anomalies as shown in the previous post. * one point deducted for late penalty (BKV) high scores in bold, ^ will count as second high score(s) where Yoda has high score (for comparison of regular entrants). ATL is set to "max 60" scoring as high raw score was 58. Given the number of ties and differentials, the scoring levels were 60, 50 (3), 40, 35, 30, 25, 20 (2), 10. FORECASTER ____________DCA_NYC_BOS_east_ORD_ATL_IAH_cent _ c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA_west __ TOTALS Yoda _____________________ 80 _ 96 _100 _ 276 __ 58 _ 60 _ 88 _ 206 __ 482 __ 38 _ 94 _ 76 _ 208 _____ 690 hudsonvalley21 ___________ 64 _ 96 _ 94 _ 254 __ 74 _ 40 _ 94 _ 208 __ 462 __ 40 _ 62 _ 96 _ 198 _____ 660^ ___ Consensus ____________66 _ 92 _ 94 _ 252 __ 68 _ 35 _ 94 _ 197 __ 442 __ 38 _ 66 _ 96 _ 200 _____ 644 wxallannj _________________ 66 _ 92 _ 94 _ 252 __ 64 _ 50^_ 80 _ 194 __ 446 __ 50 _ 46 _ 86 _ 182 _____ 628 Tom ______________________ 54 _ 76 _ 84 _ 214 __ 92 _ 20 _ 98 _ 210 __ 424 __ 46 _ 66 _ 92 _ 204^_____628 RJay ______________________92 _ 80 _ 84 _ 256 __ 60 _ 50^_ 96 _ 206 __ 462 __ 18 _ 86 _ 60 _ 164 _____ 626 BKViking _____ (-1%) ______ 71*_ 91*_ 83*_245__ 67*_ 25 _ 87*_179 __ 424 __ 34 _75*_93*_ 202 _____ 626 Scotty Lightning ___________72 _ 90 _ 86 _ 248 __ 80 _ 50^_ 74 _ 204 __452 __ 68 _ 36 _ 70 _ 174 _____ 626 RodneyS __________________56 _ 88 _ 94 _ 238 __ 62 _ 35 _ 90 _ 187 __ 425 __ 42 _ 56 _100 _ 198 _____ 623 DonSutherland1 __________ 82 _100_ 98^_ 280 __ 70 _ 30 _ 94 _ 194 __ 474^__ 08 _ 90^_ 44 _ 142 _____ 616 Normal ____________________52 _ 80 _ 86 _ 218 __ 80 _ 35 _ 96 _ 211 __ 429 __ 78 _ 16 _ 70 _ 164 _____ 593 wxdude64 ________________ 46 _ 68 _ 76 _ 190 __ 88 _ 10 _ 84 _ 182 __ 372 __ 30 _ 52 _ 94 _ 176 _____ 548 Roger Smith ______________ 22 _ 40 _ 42 _ 104 __ 90 _ 20 _ 96 _ 206 __ 310 __ 18 _ 86 _ 80 _ 184 _____ 494 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Highest forecasts were extreme forecast winners for DCA (RJay), ATL (Yoda, and within regular forecasters wxallannj, Scotty Lightning, RJay), while for PHX highest forecast may be a loss with Yoda taking a win for second highest forecast getting high score. (based on estimate, if the final value is 4.3 or higher, it's a win for Don instead). Lowest forecast was a win for Scotty L at DEN (oddball result with extreme cold for a few days overwhelming warmth most of the days). Normal also picks up a win for DEN (we all went positive, DEN will end up around -1.0). For ORD, lowest forecast was a loss for Roger Smith (-1.5, 90 pts) and a win for second coldest (Tom, -0.6, 92 pts) as ORD finished at -1.0. NYC, BOS, IAH and SEA all are trending to high scores closer to consensus than extremes. -- will post the annual update soon after these scores are finalized on Nov 1st, but with most of you scoring in a similar range, there won't be a lot of movement in the tables, congrats to Yoda for high score (subject to slight adjustments to come) and hudsonvalley21.

I want to see Mu and Nu doing the Fujiwara.

Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2020 normal values for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA and add your snowfall predictions for the usual nine locations we use (for ATL, IAH and PHX we substitute DTW, BUF and BTV). The snowfall predictions can be added any time during November, I will start to message people around mid-month to get them all in. Good luck.

The count is now 27/11/4. Scoring for that outcome is shown in the previous post.

I am expecting a rather broken up winter temperature regime with spells of very mild and very cold, some tendency towards a colder second half of winter relative to normal in eastern and central states, and the opposite for western interior regions. Some powerful storms seem very likely given that energy peaks are going to be unusually concentrated. It should be the sort of winter when it would be bad luck for any region to escape a major winter event at some point. It could be a very active lake effect snow season.

First look at anomalies and projections ... _______________________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA _ (9th) _______ (8d anom) ______--0.9 _ +1.0 _ +1.7 ___ --1.7 _ --0.7 _ --1.8 ___ +6.4 _ +7.4 _ +4.5 _ (16th) _____ (15d anom) _____ +1.1 _ +1.3 _ +2.0 ___ +2.6 _ +2.8 _ +2.0 ___ +6.2 _ +6.6 _ +3.8 _ (25th) _____ (24d anom) _____ +3.0 _ +2.4 _ +2.7 ___ +1.1 _ +3.5 _ +2.5 ___ +2.0 _ +6.5 _ +2.2 _ (9th) ______ (p15d anom) ____ --0.5 _ +0.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.8 _ --0.5 _ --1.0 ___ +5.0 _ +6.0 _ +2.5 _ (16th) _____ (p22d anom) ____ --0.2 _ +0.2 _ +0.5 ___ +0.5 _ +1.0 _ +1.5 ___ +5.5 _ +6.0 _ +3.0 _ (9th) ______ (p25d anom) ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --2.5 _ --1.5 _ --0.5 ___ +5.0 _ +5.5 _ +3.0 _ (16th) _____ (p31d anom) ____ --1.5 _ --1.0 __ 0.0 ___ --2.0 _ --1.0 _ +0.5 ___ +4.5 _ +5.0 _ +2.0 _ (25th) _____ (p31d anom) ____ +1.5 _ +1.5 _ +1.0 ___ --0.5 _ +2.0 _ +1.5 ___ --1.0* _ +5.0 _ +2.0 _ (31st) ____ final values _______ +2.4 _ +1.0 _ +0.7 ___ --1.0 _ +4.0 _ +0.2 ___ --1.1 _ +4.2 _ +1.5 _______________________________________ 9th _ First week was rather cool in the east although warming briefly 7th-8th. The west has been very warm (even where I live, in the 70s every day so far). ... Next week looks fairly similar, but after 15th GFS shows very cold air making an appearance over the Midwest and filtering into the northeast. Looks cold enough for lake effect snow at times, flurries in mountains of eastern states. Thus the 16d projections fall to below normal in eastern and central regions, staying quite warm in the west. 16th _ Second week continued near normal in the east, warm in the west. These trends will shift gradually to much below normal temperatures at times in the eastern and central states, staying fairly warm in the west although less marked in the Pac NW. 25th _ The expected cooling trend was muted for the east and confined to central and western states instead. Although it now appears likely to turn rather cool at times, the anomalies will likely remain positive for the four locations in the eastern time zone and close to normal for ORD. ... IAH, DEN and SEA will likely have a few more cool days then rebound to above normal warmth, and PHX will stay well above normal after perhaps a day or two of unusually cool weather taking a bit of the edge off near-record warmth for another month. * 27th _ Had to revise DEN as they got into some extremely cold air for three days, coming out of that now but it has really knocked the anomaly way down. Revised from +2.0 to -1.0 and they will be fortunate to get back even that far having fallen below -1 now (running quite warm all month to 23rd, then this ... anyway, it is what it is and we're supposed to foresee it). 1st _ Posting final values, scoring is now updated.

Whatever happens now, you will be closer than the other two (and Weather53), the actuals were 81, 81, 83, 82 on 7th, in my own case I could win the contest within a contest if even warmer temperatures occur later. But in terms of the contest leadership tie-breaker, nw baltimore wx wins. Congrats.

Scoring (out of 50 maximum) for 25/9/3 The scoring algorithm used each year for seasonal forecasts is to deduct the average of error and error squared. This means deductions of 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 28 for the first seven error values. FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 323 _____ 35 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 422 _____ 34 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 544 _____ 15 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 531 _____ 28 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 522 _____ 29 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 512 _____ 31 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____ 632 _____ 20 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____ 612 _____ 25 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 602 _____ 26 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____ 601 _____ 28 ___ Consensus (means) ________ 18.5_10.3_4.9 __ 6.5, 1.3, 1.9 __ 21.7 Rhino16 _________________________ 18 _14 _ 5 _____ 752 _____ 4 Rtd208 __________________________ 18 _12 _ 7 _____ 734 _____ 6 Newman _________________________18 _10 _ 4 _____ 711 _____20 Yoda _____________________________18 _ 8 _ 4 _____ 711 _____20 JakkelWx ________________________ 17 _10 _ 6 _____ 813 _____ 7 Alfoman _________________________ 17 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 802 _____11 Jaxjagman ______________________ 16 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 902 _____ 2 NHC (mid-range) _________________16 _ 8 _ 4.5 ____9 1 1.5 __ 2.1 CSU _____________________________ 16 _ 8 _ 4 _____ 911 _____ 3 Olafminesaw ____________________ 15 _ 8 _ 4 _____10 1 1 _____ 0 Crownweather ___________________ 15 _ 8 _ 3 _____10 1 0 _____ 0 ___________________________________________________________________ Since the identification and naming of marginal TS on several occasions has distorted the forecasting skill shown, I may attempt to score with a slightly different weighting of errors, at the end of the season, as very few of these scores can avoid hitting zero if there are 3-4 more storms. (later edit) __ Tracking the updates, with the season now at 2,2,1 on top of the 25,9,3 to reach 27,11,4, these are the scores of anyone left standing at this point ... Scoring for 27, 11, 4 FORECASTER ____________________St_ Hu_ Maj ____ Errors ___ Points Windspeed ______________________ 22 _11 _ 6 _____ 502 _____ 32 WxWatcher007 __________________ 21 _11 _ 5 _____ 601 _____ 28 NutleyBlizzard ___________________ 20 _12 _ 4 _____ 710 _____ 21 Orangeburg Wx __________________ 20 _11 _ 5 _____ 701 _____ 21 NCforecaster89 __________________20 _10 _ 5 _____ 711 _____ 20 Roger Smith _____________________ 20 _13 _ 7 _____ 723 _____ 13 Thunderman _____________________19 _10 _ 5 _____ 811 _____ 12 Snowlover2 ______________________19 _12 _ 5 _____ 811 _____ 12 NorthHillsWx ____________________ 19 _ 9 _ 4 _____ 820 _____ 11 BlueDXer75 ______________________19 _ 9 _ 5 _____ 821 _____ 10 (all others drop below 10)

Count is 25/9/3, on its way to 218/12/4

Table of forecasts for October 2020 FORECASTER ____________ DCA _NYC _BOS ___ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA RJay _____________________ +2.0 _+2.0 _+1.5 __+1.0 _+1.0 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.5 _+3.5 DonSutherland1 __________ +1.5 _+1.0 _+0.8 __ +0.5 _--0.3 _--0.1 ___ +3.5 _+4.7 _+4.3 Yoda _____________________+1.4 _+1.2 _+0.7 __ +1.1 _+1.9 _+0.8 ___ +2.0 _+3.9 _+2.7 BKViking _____ (-1%) ______+1.0 _+1.4 _+1.5 __ +0.6 _--0.4 _+0.8 ___ +2.2 _+3.0 _+1.2 Scotty Lightning __________ +1.0 _+0.5 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 _+1.0 _+1.5 ___ +0.5 _+1.0 __ 0.0 wxallannj _________________ +0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +0.8 _+1.0 _+1.2 ___ +1.4 _+1.5 _+0.8 ___ Consensus ____________ +0.7 _+0.6 _+0.4 __ +0.6 __0.0 _+0.5 ___ +2.0 _+2.5 _+1.7 hudsonvalley21 ___________ +0.6 _+1.2 _+0.4 __ +0.3 _+0.3 _+0.5 ___ +1.9 _+2.3 _+1.7 RodneyS __________________ +0.2 _+0.4 _+1.0 __ +0.9 __0.0 _+0.7 ___ +1.8 _+2.0 _+1.5 Tom ______________________ +0.1 _--0.2 _--0.1 __ --0.6 _--0.5 _+0.1 ___ +1.6 _+2.5 _+1.9 Normal ____________________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __0.0 wxdude64 ________________ --0.3 _--0.6 _--0.5 ___--0.4 _--1.1 _--0.6 ___ +2.4 _+1.8 _+1.2 Roger Smith ______________ --1.5 _--2.0 _--2.2 ___--1.5 _--0.5 __0.0 ___ +3.0 _+3.5 _+2.5 __________________________________ note: reduced the late penalty assessed to BKV as originally I had the idea his post was a day later, then I realized that I had not looked in for the first 24 hours while he posted, so it was only marginally late rather than the day and twelve hours that I had thought at first.

< < < < < ........ <<<< ---- ====== Annual Scoring (Jan-Sep) 2020 ====== ---- >>>> .......> > > > > Numbers in red denote highest cumulative scores for each of nine locations. Numbers in bold black type denote highest subtotals for regions. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__ c/e __DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL RodneyS ___________________652_ 654_696 __2002 __593 _579_608__1780 __3782 __678_613_572_ 1863 ____5645 Don Sutherland.1 ___________580 _636_644 __1860 __515 _610_622 __1747 __3607 __450_578_596_ 1624 ____5231 hudsonvalley21 ____________537 _598 _667 __1802 __466 _576 _639 __1681 __3483 __517_640_563_ 1720 ____5203 RJay _______________________588 _631 _577 __1796 __513 _596 _587 __1696 __3492 __580_548_580_ 1708 ____5200 ___ Consensus _____________532 _572 _671 __1775 __444 _583_650 __1677 __3452 __520_633_564_ 1717 ____ 5169 BKViking __________________ 498 _552 _623 __1673 __477 _520 _610__1607 __3280 __547_637_619_ 1803 ____ 5083 wxallannj __________________550 _616 _649 __1815 __394 _565 _654 __1613 __3428 __498_599_546_ 1641 ____5069 Tom _______________________ 538 _572 _640 __1750__386 _624 _599__1609 __3359 __507_619_517_ 1643 ____5002 Scotty Lightning ____________442 _432 _526 __1400 __370 _573_692__1635 __3035 __438_588_582_ 1608 ____ 4643 wxdude64 __________________463 _481 _536 __1480__362 _534 _640__1536 __3016 __ 498_603_446_ 1547 ____4563 Roger Smith ________________446 _481 _578 __1505__396 _599 _554__1549 __3054 __ 540_420_398_ 1358 ____4412 Brian5671 _ (8/9) __________ 494 _502 _526 __1522 __323 _485 _545__1353 __2875 __318_478_542_ 1438 ____ 4313 ___ Normal _________________356 _352 _442 __1150 __302 _530 _540__1372 __2522 __370_480_ 542_ 1392 ____3914 JakkelWx _ (7/9) ___________ 380 _395 _514 __1289__370 _405 _532__1317 __2606 __390 _422 _330_ 1142 ____3748 yoda _ (3/9) ________________112 _ 131 _100 __ 343 __ 94_190 _223 __ 507 ___ 850 __ 171 _253_134 __ 558_____1408 rclab _ (1/9) _________________05 __ 00 __ 00 __ 005 __ 00 _ 11 _ 24 __ 035 ____ 040 ___ 56 _ 88 _ 66 __ 210 _____ 250 dwave _ (1/9) _______________ 72 __ 75 __ 48 __ 195 __ 12 _ 25 _ 10 __ 047 ____ 242 ___ 16 _ 34 _ 00 __ 050 _____ 292 Maxim _ (1/9) _______________00 __ 00 __ 00 __ 000 __ 00 _ 20 _ 46 __ 066 ____ 066 ___ 32 _ 50 _ 34 __ 116 _____ 182 Rhino16 _ (1/9) ______________00 __ 05 __ 20 __ 025 __ 00 _ 13 _ 30 __ 043 ____ 068 ___ 04 _ 52 _ 54 __ 110 _____ 178 ============================================================================== Extreme forecast standings January to September 64 of 81 forecasts so far have qualified for an extreme forecast award for the warmest forecast(s), 43 for warmest and 21 for coldest. FORECASTER ____ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun __ Jul _ Aug __ Sep _ Standings to date RodneyS _________ 2-0 __ 3-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __ 0-1 __0-1 _ 4-1 ___13-4 Brian 5671 _______ 4-0 __ 1-0 __ 3-1 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- _ ---- ___ 11-2 Roger Smith ______ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ 4-2 __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ 4-0 _ 1-0 ___ 11-2 RJay _____________ ----- __ ----- __ 3-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ 3-0 __ ---- _ 3-0 ___ 10-0 DonSutherland1___0-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ 2-0 __1-0 _ ---- ____ 8-0 Scotty Lightning __ 2-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ 1-0 __----- __ ----- __ 1-0 __1-0 _ 0-1 ____ 4-1 Normal ___________ 1-0 __ 0-1 __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- _ 0-1 ____ 4-2 Tom ______________ 1-0 __ 0-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-0 ____ 3-0 RClab _____________ 2-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 2-0 wxdude64 ________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 2-0 Jakkelwx __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-0 ____ 2-0 yoda ______________ 0-0 __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ ---- __ ---- _ 1-1 ____ 2-1 hudsonvalley21 ____ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ----- __ 1-0 __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1-0 wxallannj __________ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- __ 1-1 __ ---- __ ---- __ ---- ____ 1-1 ================================================================================ BEST SCORES -- Totals for January to September Forecasters are listed in same order as annual points standings. Ties are possible which is why some locations have more than two best scores, also, if Normal or consensus achieve a top score, the actual forecaster with high score gets an award also. FORECASTER ______________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent__c/e__DEN_PHX_SEA__west___Months RodneyS ___________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 3 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 3 _____ 4 _ Jan, Feb, May, Sep DonSutherland.1 ____________1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 2 _ Mar, Apr hudsonvalley21 _____________0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RJay _______________________ 2 ___ 2 ___ 0 ____ 3 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 2 _ Jun, Jul ___ Consensus ______________0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 BKViking ___________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxallannj ___________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0 Tom ________________________0 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Scotty Lightning ____________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 _____ 0 wxdude64 __________________0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Roger Smith ________________ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 1 __ Aug Brian5671 __________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 _____ 0 _____ Normal _______________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 _____ 1 ___ Apr Jakkelwx ___________________1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 Yoda _______________________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 _____ 0 RClab _______________________0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 _____ 0

Thanks for those, good luck to the three of you.

--1.5 __ --2.0 __ --2.2 ___ --1.5 __ --0.5 __ 0.0 ___ +3.0 __ +3.5 __ +2.5

We enter the fourth quarter of the contest year, with the contest scoring relatively close. Predict the temperature anomalies (F deg) relative to 1981-2010 averages, for DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (deadline 0600z Thursday October 1st, late penalties thereafter)

Could be quite early ... BWI Oct 17 IAD Oct 17 DCA Oct 24 RIC Oct 24 TB 87

A tiebreaker has been posted for the three who are tied, and the tiebreaker contest is also free-standing for anyone who wants to enter it. The details are back in my previous post of September 15th. Predict the max temps in October at the four locations used in the contest. I can't break the tie based on number of hits as two of the three had two locations on the money, the third member of the leadership group had three errors of 1 deg. If nobody enters the tiebreaker (of these three) then the contest ends tied.