Roger Smith

This is the list of top ten 2-day BOS totals from a link already posted (without this list fully visible) ... my analysis below ========= divider Feb. 18, 2003: 27.6 inches Feb. 7, 1978: 27.1 inches April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches Feb. 9, 2013: 24.9 inches Jan. 27, 2015: 24.4 inches Feb. 17, 2003: 23.6 inches Jan. 23, 2005: 22.5 inches Jan. 28, 2015: 22.3 inches Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches Jan. 21, 1978: 21.4 inches Dates listed are the end date from a two-day period of snow accumulation. ============================= (my analysis below ========= divider) The article states that the period of record is 1891 to present. So all of these storms occurred from 1978 to end of data, not one from 1891 to 1977 shows up. I saw in another post a mention of a four day total from Feb 1969. The blizzard of March 12-13 1888 may have made this list, although I seem to recall reading that the very high totals in western New England (30-50") tapered down to two feet or less in some eastern regions. Getting back to the list, not only are they all 1978 or later, but seven are in the 21st century. However, it's really a top eight list not a top ten. Here's why. The search must have been for two-day totals. That brought in two storms with two entries (Jan 26-28 2015 and Feb 16-18 2003). Their 3-day totals must have been slightly higher than the higher of their two appearances in the list. A corrected list should delete the lower of their two entries in each case, making the 10th place storm in the list 8th all-time. After making that adjustment, two winters (1978 and 2015) had two storms each, separated by 17 and 13 days. This one will probably end up number one if they measure correctly. I think it goes to 29-32" from the current 16". It won't end before midnight so it will show up in the list as Jan 30, 2022 by the protocol used. However the 29th one-day total might also end up near top three or even number one also.

At the buoy 54 miles SE of ACK, pressure in past hour has dropped 5 mb, low appears to be approaching it, pressure around 980 mbs, winds NE 45 G 55 knots (approx). At this rate historic blizzard James will track right across the Cape in about 4-5 hours. That rate of pressure fall as many will know is near the limit.

I think you can double expectations west of the river, this looks to me like it could go off the charts. That GFS evolution as I mentioned in the other thread (and NWS seems to have picked up same idea) is very explosive, and in fact I think the low is going to deepen below 970 mbs. It appears to be heading across the Cape and into western Gulf of Maine. There is already considerably more snow in the lower Hudson valley as per NYC forum reports, and I think western MA could easily see 12" and possibly 15-18" amounts. Even Albany NY could see 6" or more. The snow shield will be back to Utica to Plattsburgh at this rate.

06z GFS takes a track past Cape Cod and hooks back into western Gulf of Maine. I noted a possible 50-100 mile eastward initialization error (shows as 70.5W but more likely 71.5W) which I think could translate into additional deepening on what is already quite an impressive 18-hour deepening cycle (to 970 mbs as shown). Factoring that in I would expect very slow eastward drift of the banding and heavy snow axes now setting up, and possibly back into that earlier "superstorm" sort of evolution which might up snowfall potential especially for LI and CT, and also wind speed potential later today.

I would imagine there would be a constant dull roar of OMG as the board comes to life and sees this rather startling track, the thing goes around the Cape and takes a very hard look at PWM before going up the coast. And as I said the map has an initial position that looks too far east, it's basically 38N 70.5W and the low looks closer to 71.5W on radar and satellite (and from buoy reports). If this evolution started from that corrected position it could imply 3-5 mb extra deepening potential. I know it's just another model but you can see this rather steady forcing and the signature of upper lows closing in for the kill. Given what's happening along the Jersey coast, this could mean astronomical snowfalls for parts of LI and NE.

Big doings on the 06z GFS ... from what appears to be a slightly erroneous initial position (the error looks to be 50-100 east of actual sfc low) the track is now tucked right into the western Gulf of Maine with the 700 mb low crossing se MA to phase. Considering that error as perhaps a weakening factor in the model development (which is close to being intense), this could return things to the earlier very intense storm status. I am seeing explosive development potential over the entire region.

Some mildly encouraging signs from radar and various obs upstream, somebody on LI has 4" down. ACY looks semi-blizzed and heavy snow reported near Asbury Park. I'm just riding this out with limited confidence in models at this point, it has the look of a big storm on radar and satellite and there's a fairly impressive low in the Atlantic. Maybe it will just do what some earlier model run said it might do and ignore all the very latest updates. As for BOS 40" that seems like a stretch but 25-30 is probably within the bounds, at least 23 with nearby weather weenies swearing it should be 26.

Sooner or later one of these vort maxes will take the right road, and do the right thing. It has happened before and can happen again. I guess.

I see a large crab attacking a giant lobster, and a few other good things. (this may update hour by hour so later readers may not see that at all) ... http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg

Did that poster asking about wind speeds in BOS and cape get an answer? My guess is, peak gusts of 65 mph at BOS, 80-100 mph gusts possible across the Cape, from NE backing to NNW as the storm passes. Peak winds will be around 9 pm to 3 am overnight (Sat-Sun night).

In the 1888 blizzard, people got a daily weather forecast from their newspaper. It might come out around 3-4 p.m. with a forecast sent to NYC from DC by telegraph. So I looked into the situation. On Saturday March 10 the forecast for Sunday (NYC) said something like rain turning to snow, colder. On Sunday March 11th the paper had no forecast. The news reports said something about telegraph lines down between DC and New York due to a storm (DC had 10-12 inches from the blizzard). The storm hit in full force on the night of 11th-12th and raged away all day Monday 12th and into part of Tuesday 13th, 17 inches fell in the city and as you know 30-50 inches over large parts of the Hudson valley and western New England. So in that case, people had some idea that snow was coming and beyond that, no information, complicated by the rare non-appearance of their forecast from the head office. This led to the situation of regional offices in places like New York and Boston. When it comes to times before the telegraph and the infant version of the NWS (the weather bureau), I guess people went with natural signs like a halo around the moon presaging a storm. But from what I've read about the famous "Washington-Jefferson" 30 inch snowfall in Virginia in Jan 1772, even such intelligent people as two of the first presidents had no idea it was coming, both were forced to make alternate plans on routine business journeys and could not reach their homes as planned for days, or without considerable difficulty. Accounts of the big hurricane force windstorm in Ireland in 1839 make it fairly clear that nobody was remotely prepared for such an event there. And the journal of Alexis Caldwell at Providence RI seldom gives any clue as to his state of preparedness for the coming day's weather (his journal runs from 1831 to 1860) although having read much of it I never encountered any expressions of surprise except perhaps for the night that his 7 inch rain gauge overflowed.

I know. But I will edit this to 21.5 as soon as he posts that report. By the way, I have entered your location (etc etc) and it's 17.8 inches.

I have put your location in my supercomputer and your guaranteed snowfall amount is (whirr, click, sound of exploding vacuum tubes) 21.4 inches Your snow will terminate at 0739 a.m. EST Sunday. You will measure in absolute disbelief at the accuracy of this prediction. Or not.

Feel free to give your o/u relative to these fx: ACY 14.5 EWR 8.2 NYC 10.7 JFK 12.5 LGA 14.4 ISP 21.3 (local e LI 25-30) BDR 18.8 BDL 14.5 PVD 26.5 BOS 30.2 PWM 27.5 CON 25.5 ORH 34.5 HYA 22.5 ALB 3.5 POU 7.0

It just feels like the mother of all NAM final reversals lies just over the event horizon.

Just saw the thread, can't realistically take the prize anyway (distance) so 18 min late entry but 38.5" at Marlborough, MA.

You can just sense that the NAM is about to go back into bomb mode for its 00z last chance forecast. If the Euro found that much to improve, the NAM can probably find a 950 mb low stalled for five days off Montauk.

30-40 was in the casket, the minister was saying what a great fellow he had been, and how we would all miss him, and a voice came from within the casket ...

It took a brave soul to write that outlook, even as harsh a snow-fanatic as myself would likely have gone with a more subdued tone after seeing all this meh guidance. Still, it could be like the 1970s and the outcome is nothing like the guidance at all. Sometimes the crudeness of the early generation models is overstated, they weren't that bad, but I do remember one or two cases where reality was quite a surprise compared to any 12-24 hour model output, for example, Jan 26 1978. If that happens here, basically 30-40 years of technological development will mean butkus. My toned down prediction would be 12-24 inches east of a CON-ORH-PVD-ACK 12" contour, max near Taunton MA. Maybe 15" in parts of se CT and LI here and there. Probably about 7" on average in w CT to central MA. Hoping reality gives me a kick in the butkus.

In the Navy there's a blizzard for you all, in the navy there's snow back to Montreal, in the navy, it's like 1982 in the navy, everyone is wearing blue.

BINGO !!! It was kicker near MKE that finished it for me.

Sure, in PEI snow fans are delirious.

What happened to the NAM I married? That NAM was a good provider and always looked sharp. But you, and your whole 12z family, I just can't see a future for us.

Also they have to show the output to the Queen so that takes time, she's fussy about isobars and such.

That wasn't the NAM I married. Now the 06z NAM, wherever that alternate universe is located, they are in for it.