Roger Smith

In 1977, as discussed, the winter did relent its grip during February but even so, the month was quite average and finished 73rd warmest of the 155 to date (mean 33.5 F). March 1977 was warm and finished at 46.8 F which was the eleventh warmest of the 154 so far. April 1977 was warm at times and finished tied 36th warmest. May 1977 was a scorcher at times, except for that one brief cold shot where a trace of snow fell in NYC, and finished 24th warmest.

1869 should be tossed from that first list, there was no data for Aug-Dec 1868. Based on Toronto data though, it wasn't overly warm and 1868-69 might have made the top ten, July 1868 was a very hot month, I rank it second hottest July (to 1921) after urban heat island adjustments for Toronto.

Some guidance has been showing a cold end to March, so here are the coldest last three day periods of March in NYC climate history. They are ranked by average daily maximum to prevent the urban heat island from totally dominating the list. To get onto this list, there must be a maximum of 39F or lower on one of the three days, or if not, two below 42F, or failing that, all three must be 45F or lower. Only the top occasions with all three below 45F should be ranked, as some of the higher averages might not be the next coldest. Closest three non-qualifiers since 1985 (by average max) are included (1990, 2001, 2004). Only 2022 qualified under the rules used since 1984, and it was marginal in this list but March 28th-30th 2022 would have placed a more impressive tied for fifth coldest daytime average among these, and it set a new record low maximum of 33F on the 28th (29F is record low maximum for 29th). I also included 1893 for 28th-30th for the same reason, and it did not qualify for the 29th-31st list. Daily record values are in bold. YEAR ________ 29th max min __ 30th max min __ 31st max min ___ avg max, min ___ notes on any snowfalls etc 1887 __________ 29 __ 19 _______ 33 __ 16 ________ 40 __ 23 ________ 34.0 ___ 19.3 ____ 2.0" snow followed Apr 1-2 1923 __________ 32 __ 10 _______ 42 __ 30 ________ 34 __ 14 ________ 36.0 ___ 18.0 ____ also record low min Apr 1 (12F) 1883 __________ 37 __ 28 _______ 36 __ 28 ________ 39 __ 22 ________ 37.3 ___ 26.0 ____ 4.5" snow 30th 1919 __________ 31 __ 25 ________ 45 __ 27 ________ 38 __ 24 ________ 38.0 ___ 25.3 ____1.4" snow 28th, very cold Apr 1-2 (min 22 both) 1881 __________ 42 __ 35 _______ 38 __ 32 ________ 38 __ 31 ________ 39.3 ___ 32.7 ____ trace snow 31st (2022) 28-30 _ (33) _ 23 _______ 38 __ 24 ________ 47 __ 29 ________ 39.3 ___ 25.3 ____ see note above, last qualifier for 29th-31st 1890 __________ 41 __ 33 _______ 38 __ 31 ________ 40 __ 29 ________ 39.7 ___ 31.0 ____ 3.3" snow 30th-31st (2.8" on 31st) 1970 __________ 47 __ 27 _______ 37 __ 22 ________ 38 __ 33 ________ 40.7 ___ 27.3 ____ 4.0" snow 29th (1.07" prec) also 1.93" Apr 2nd 1974*__________ 34 __ 27 _______ 41 __ 32 ________ 47 __ 37 ________ 40.7 ___ 32.0 ____ 3.2" snow 29th (1.86" prec 29th-30th) (1893) 28-30 __ 34 __ 26 _______ 42 __ 22 _______ 49 __ 29 ________ 41.7 ___ 25.7 ____ see note above, non-qualifier 29th-31st 1900 __________ 41 __ 31 _______ 41 __ 34 ________ 43 __ 30 ________ 41.7 ___ 31.7 ____ 0.5" snow 31st 1965 __________ 40 __ 35 _______42 __ 31 ________ 43 __ 26 ________ 41.7 ___ 30.7 ____ trace snow 29th, 1.2" Apr 2nd 1915 __________ 43 __ 32 _______ 37 __ 21 ________ 46 __ 28 ________ 42.0 ___ 27.0 ____ 10.2" snow Apr 3rd-4th 1928 __________ 43 __ 34 _______ 40 __ 35 ________ 43 __ 30 ________ 42.0 ___ 33.0 ____ 1.02" rain 30th 1944 __________ 42 __ 35 _______ 39 __ 35 ________ 47 __ 34 ________ 42.7 ___ 34.7 ____ 0.67" rain 29th-30th, 6.5" snow Apr 5 1956 __________ 38 __ 34 _______ 46 __ 35 ________ 44 __ 35 ________ 42.7 ___ 34.7 ____ 4.2" snow Apr 8th 1877 __________ 32 __ 28 _______ 49 __ 31 ________ 48 __ 33 ________ 43.0 ___ 30.7 ____ followed 1.5" snow 28th 1889 __________ 52 __ 32 _______ 38 __ 25 ________ 39 __ 31 ________ 43.0 ___ 29.3 ____ 0.5" snow 30th 1964 __________ 52 __ 34 _______ 41 __ 29 ________ 38 __ 22 ________ 43.7 ___ 28.3 ____ 1942 __________ 39 __ 33 _______ 50 __ 33 ________ 44 __ 38 ________ 44.3 ___ 34.7 ____ 0.7" snow 29th-30th, 2.1" snow Apr 9th 1984 __________ 36 __ 34 _______ 44 __ 35 ________ 54 __ 35 ________ 44.7 ___ 34.7 ____ 3.3" snow (2.60" prec) 28th-29th** 1914 __________ 41 __ 34 _______ 39 __ 33 _________ 55 __ 38 ________ 45.0 ___ 35.0 ____ (2001) ________ 46 __ 36 _______ 43 __ 37 _________ 47 __ 38 ________ 45.3 ___ 37.0 ____ 2.16" rain 30th 1876 __________ 52 __ 35 _______ 39 __ 33 ________ 46 __ 33 ________ 45.7 ___ 33.7 ____ 2.37" rain followed 3rd-4th April 1880 __________ 38 __ 28 _______ 45 __ 33 ________ 54 __ 32 ________ 45.7 ___ 31.0 ____ 1884 __________ 60 __ 29 _______ 31 __ 21 _________ 47 __ 25 ________ 46.0 ___ 25.0 ____ 1922 __________ 64 __ 38 _______ 38 __ 32 ________ 37 __ 33 ________ 46.3 ___ 34.3 ____ 0.99" rain 30th-31st, traces snow 1885 __________ 40 __ 34 _______ 42 __ 30 ________ 58 __ 41 ________ 46.7 ___ 35.0 ____ 3.0" of snow 29th (1990) ________ 50 __ 37 ________ 41 __ 36 ________ 49 __ 37 ________ 46.7 ___ 36.7 ____ 0.86" rain 30th, traces snow (2004) ________ 51 __ 36 ________ 43 __ 34 _______ 46 __ 39 ________ 46.7 ___ 36.3 ____ 0.91" rain 31st into Apr 1st 1882 __________ 49 __ 32 _______ 54 __ 38 ________ 38 __ 31 ________ 47.0 ___ 33.7 ____ 0.5" snow Apr 10th 1941 __________ 46 __ 41 _______ 39 __ 28 ________ 58 __ 29 ________ 47.7 ___ 32.7 ____ 0.7" snow 29th-30th, a very warm April followed 1969 __________ 62 __ 38 _______ 45 __ 31 ________ 38 __ 28 ________ 48.3 ___ 32.3 ____ trace snow 30th 2022 __________ 38 __ 24 _______ 47 __ 29 ________ 66 __ 45 ________ 50.3 ___ 32.7 ____ see above (t5) for 28th-30th 2022 ____________________ also note (1924 Mar 31- Apr 2) 45/32 __ 36/27 __ 39/27 ___ 8.5" snow 1-2.) Even colder spells had just ended in 1885, 1888. The 23rd-27th 1888 cold spell: 20/14 _ 26/12 _ 34/16 _ 36/29 _ 42/34 In 1998 all three days broke 80 F and 1945 was nearly as warm, as were a number of other years including 1910, 1946, 1977 and 1986. * 1974 cold spell with snow was followed on Apr 3-4 by supertornado outbreak in Midwest, NYC reached 75F on Apr 4th. ** 1984 cold spell and heavy mixed precip event followed 4th-5th by 4.37" rain. ============================== General note: some of these cold spells are dry and are then followed by a week or two of relatively dry weather with a steady warming trend often noted, but many either produce cold rains mixed with snow, or are followed by such events within a week. Even if this cold spell fades out of the model guidance before we reach the interval, this forms an interesting study, and the lack of such cold spells in recent decades is notable. If we had used minimum rather than maximum temperatures, 2015 average was 32.0 with 25 on 29th, 2008 had an average minimum of 32.7 for the last three days of March, and 2011 was 34.7. These intervals had average daytime highs of 48 to 49 F.

Final scoring for March 2023 Scoring is based on confirmed monthly anomalies as shown in previous post. One point late penalty reductions * FORECASTER _____________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA__west ___ TOTAL DonSutherland1 ____________ 62 _ 28 _ 16 __ 106 ___ 98 _ 98 _ 52 __ 248 _ 354 __ 17 _ 62 _ 80 __ 159 ____ 513 Scotty Lightning ___________ 90 _ 84 _ 60 __234 __ 96 _ 72 _ 52 __ 220 _ 454 __ 00 _ 00 _ 48 __ 048 ____ 502 RJay ________________________40 _ 34 _ 20 ___094 __ 74 _ 52 _ 72 ___ 198 _ 292 __ 53 _ 40 _ 98__ 191 ____ 481 wxallannj ___________________ 60 _ 46 _ 26 __ 132 __ 84 _ 76 _ 62 ___ 222 _ 354 __ 13 _ 22 _ 88 __ 123 ____ 477 hudsonvalley21 __ (-1%) ____ 50 _ 14 _ 32 ___096 __ 97*_ 89*_ 57*__ 243 _ 339 __ 06 _ 38 _ 93*__ 137 ____ 476 wxdude64 __________________82 _ 56 _ 12 __ 150 __ 82 _ 74 _ 50 ___ 206 _ 356 __ 23 _ 02 _ 84 __ 109 ____ 465 RodneyS ___________________ 46 _ 36 _ 24 __ 106 __ 54 _ 40 _ 58 ___ 152 _ 258 __ 63 _ 46 _ 96 __ 205 ____ 463 ___ Consensus ______________52 _ 36 _ 24 __ 112 __ 78 _ 68 _ 56 ___ 202 __ 314 __ 17 _ 30 _ 86 __ 133 ____ 447 ___ ___ Normal ___ ___ _______ 70 _ 64 _ 50 __ 184 __ 96 _ 52 _ 32 ___180 _ 364 __ 00 _ 10 _ 48 __ 058 ____ 422 Rhino16 ____________________ 54 _ 44 _ 30 __ 128 __ 68 _ 62 _ 24 ___ 154 _ 282 __ 19 _ 04 _ 84 __ 107 _____ 389 BKViking ___________________ 34 _ 36 _ 26 __ 096 __ 68 _ 62 _ 62 ___ 192 _ 288 __ 17 _ 06 _ 44 __ 067 _____ 355 Roger Smith ________________ 30 _ 20 _ 14 __ 064 __ 56 _ 04 _ 00 ___ 060 _ 124 __ 13 _ 60 _ 74 __ 147 _____ 271 __________________ ___ Persistence _____________ 00 _ 32 _ 88 __ 120 __ 00 _ 00 _ 88 ___ 088 _ 208 __ 18 _ 66 _ 86 __ 170 _____ 378 EXTREME FORECAST REPORT Scotty Lightning wins DCA, NYC, BOS with warmest forecasts. ORD (-0.2) is a shared win for DonSutherland1 (-0.3) and hudsonvalley21 (-0.1), Scotty Lightning (0.0) and Normal take a loss. ATL (+2.4) is a win for DonSutherland1 (+2.5) with warmest forecast. IAH (+3.4) is a win for RJay (+2.0) with warmest forecast. DEN (-5.7) is a win for RodneyS (-3.5) with coldest forecast. PHX (-4.5) is a win for DonSutherland1 (-2.6) with coldest forecast. SEA (-2.6) is a win for RJay (-2.5) and a loss for DonSutherland1 (-3.6). __________________________________________

Think positive, it's not that the models are getting the weather wrong, it's the weather getting the models wrong. NYC would be at 50" if the weather would just follow the guidance.

March has been the coldest month of three winters, or perhaps more precisely stated, colder than all three winter months, in 1879-80, 1889-90 and 1959-60. To answer your question about a similar range of winter month temps and March, 2016-2017 had means of 38.3 in Dec, 38.0 in Jan, 41.6 in Feb and 39.2 in March. That is the narrowest range I could find in the data set in recent winters (for all four months) and it was second all-time; the all-time narrowest range was in 1871-72 (29.2, 28.8, 29.9, 30.5). However, 1868-69 might have been narrower, we don't have December 1868 but at other locations in eastern North America it was relatively cold, and the means for Jan to Mar were 35.1, 34.5, and 34.8.

Does anyone know if the 42" report from West Dover VT was final or accepted by NWS? My local seasonal pack maximum was on March 2nd, at 26" (down to 23" now) and it took all of a long winter season (started to snow here in late October) to get to that. We seldom get more than 10" in any given day but it keeps coming, did not rain much this winter, and thaw-melt has been rather minor, compaction of about 80-90 inches of total snowfall occurred all winter long and we were at 20" by mid-December, never changed much until a few snowy days in late February restored and then overcame previous peak of 24" in early February. So it took some people here all of yesterday to surpass my peak mountainside snow pack. Well done.

SLP 982.4 mb at buoy 44005 (78 east Portsmouth NH) 43.2N 69.1W) with N wind 25-35 knots falling off a bit past two hours, from that and radar would estimate low is 980 mb at about 42.7 N 68.7 W future track likely WSW, SSW, SE past Cape Cod. Won't get much closer to BOS than 70W maybe 69.7? Could deepen a few mbs to 977 mbs by 03z. GFS maybe had the loop but a bit too close to coast, but the longer and slower it loops, the more snow will accumulate in those bands.

ORH reports 11.7" snow storm total to 5:41 pm, 2.2" 13th and 9.5" 14th liquid was 0.54" + 1.51" for 2.05" ... some rain without snow so cannot give a ratio but would estimate 8:1 ------ BDL reports 4.4" snow storm total (Tr + 4.4") from a total of 1.93" (0.62+1.31). ------- BOS, PVD storm totals all rain so far. BOS is at 2.36" (0.34" 13th + 2.02" 14th) PVD is at 2.80" (1.05" 13th + 1.75" 14th) ---------- CON 1.52" liquid (0.30 + 1.22) snow report msg for 14th (0.0 13th) ... if all snow 14th at 8:1 that would be about 10" PWM 0.52" liquid (all today) snow report also msg for 14th ... 6-8" est -------------- BTV 9.0" snow from 0.93" liquid today (0.03" 13th gave trace snow). --------------- ALB 6.6" snow (0.5 + 6.1) from 1.52" liquid (0.37 + 1.15) PSF they don't report snow in climate reports but 1.30" liquid, at 10:1 that would be 13.0"

Low center is backing into Boston Bay from Gulf of Maine over next 4-6 hours so the entire storm is becoming steady state with a gradual cooling trend as the upper low captures the center (last spotted at 42.5N 67.8W). Potential for slightly better stickage in NYC metro as sun angle drops and colder air filters in. Maybe 1-2" in places. System won't clear out of region until after midnight.

Check my post in the storm thread with link to visible satellite, the center has started to make its loop, past hour motion is NW by 0.5 deg lat and long, from previous hour 42N 67W to about 42.5 67.5. It is also deepening, so would not say the "bombing out" scenario is entirely dead yet. Future positions in this loop may end up just 50 to 75 miles east of BOS before it drifts back east and away from MA. This evolution will probably allow coastal and parallel inland bands to maintain positions or drift very slowly towards the coast as colder air surrounds the stacking low at all levels. Probably 5-8" snow for BOS and 10-15" additional for some places already with snow on ground. Not sure if it helps much in e CT or any part of RI, se MA but 2-4" might be feasible in some places.

http://www.weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_anim_e.html?sat=goes&area=eusa&type=visible Center making the turn into a loop from 42N 67W, current direction NNW. From check of buoy reports, all in western Gulf of Maine have either steady or slowly falling temps, so capture must be imminent. Would expect coastal R-S line to retreat offshore north of Quincy MA and slow changes further south in se MA as colder surface layers begin to surround the approaching and looping low. Don't think it grazes the coast later, might just reach 70W offshore by 00z before drifting east again around 03z.

The GFS loop is a bit further off the MA coast, I think. That should move the R-S line to the coast. If there even is a loop, perhaps it just pushes slowly north, stalls 50e BOS and either micro-loops or drifts s.s.e. past Cape Cod.

Strangely, it does accurately depict the average MA weather enthusiast's state of mind.

My six-model weighted consensus is fairly optimistic for snow potential because it avoids the widest loops but also pulls in the most snow-unfriendly lingering lows in west. Even so I don't see much reason to go against consensus around here, just would say I am 2-4" on the positive side of some forecasts I've been reading. As for ORH and 33" that is logical if one assumes QPF of 3.3" and 10:1 all snow result, or 4.1" and 8:1. Probably all components of those are off, would say 3.0" 80% snow at 8:1 . And that boils down to a snowfall at ORH of 19.2" but my prediction is 15-18".

Big jackpots they're findin' where posters high fivin' north to New Hampshire, they're goin' north, the Euro zone.

Will speculate 2-4" most likely outcome for NYC metro, 4-8" lower Hudson valley, trending to 12-16" Albany. Mixed sleety falls to eventual all snow, might be only 50% effective at sticking in the urban heat island. About 1-2" in central Long Island unless they happen to catch some hefty NNW banding, then 3-5" possible. Will become quite windy, NNW 30-50 mph.

Astronomy requires complex predictions, the difference is that theories of gravitation allow those predictions to be quite accurate. If we had equations that governed atmospheric behavior on all time scales, then we could do what astronomers can do (and I'm aware that there are areas of astronomy that are still undergoing debate and testing of competing theories). We really know next to nothing about atmospheric variation other than the statistics of it. For example, we can make a fairly accurate prediction that there might be 20 to 30 hot days in a summer but trying to predict which 20 or 30 they would be is essentially a random exercise at 90 days. So that tells me we don't know what specifically causes the variations we know are coming. And of course in some particular seasons we are surprised by the outcome even in general terms. I happen to think some of the answers to these questions are hidden in tidal forces that we have yet to understand to the same precision as ocean tide forecasting. Other answers are buried in solar variability and solar system magnetic field behavior. And if we ever cracked the code then it would lead to quasi-accurate long-range forecasting but the details of systems would remain hazy and these discussions would still occur even though people might know well in advance that a system like this one was coming. Then you get into things like the exact tracks of tornadoes, exact landfall spots of hurricanes, etc. We might get 90% of the way to the goal but would still be tracking such things in real time. Or maybe intelligent aliens will arrive and tell us exactly what's up, as they fatten us up for lunch tomorrow.

then there would be a much reduced thread and probably no weather forum, is there an astronomy forum where people debate the time of sunrise? No. Something that well predicted requires no discussion, or even banter. This may never become an exact science. It's like human behavior maybe, you can make some skilled general predictions, but not a totally reliable outlook for somebody's future conduct. Also, soon after perfect prediction would come weather control. Do we really want that?

Here's my final call, somewhat more bullish than some (now that word bullish of course is 87.5% of another word) ... I don't have a map but you'll get the idea, same general pattern as Ray only larger amounts of snow in the mix. Will call them from northeast to southwest for no particular reason. BGR 8.0 ... PWM 10.5 ... CON 13.5 ... RAY himself 11.0 ... BOS 8.0 ... seMA 2-4 ... ORH 18.2 ... PVD 4.5 ... KEV 11.5 ... BDL 7.0 (Springfield MA about 8), BDR 2.5 ... PSF 15.0 ... ALB 14.5 ... BGM 6.5 ... POU 7.0 ... MMU 5.0 ... NYC 1.5 ... ISP 1.0 ... EWR 3.0 (also BTV 5-8, would totally agree with Ray on his depictions in NH, VT otherwise) Frequent thunder-snow likely in e MA and thunder-sleet in CT, RI. Peak gusts 50-70 mph but possibly 80-90 around Scituate. One unified center in Gulf of Maine pulling in a weak reflection of 500 mb associated low which is now in WI-MI but appears likely to ripple forward to s ON, ne NY and w MA before losing identity. If the Euro has anything vastly different to say, I'm done anyway.

Green Bay WI managed 2" of snow on .02" liquid today (as the 500 mb center drifted past) and Madison also, on .09" -- I don't buy into 4" QPF because of the track of all relevant features, but certainly 2.5" and maybe locally 3" over hills just west of BOS. If any place gets all of that as snow, at 8 or 9 to 1 ratios, then 24-27 inches for them. Is it not the case that half of these snow threads end up with posts saying "QPF was overestimated" and not the other way round? But 2.5 to 3.0 QPF is still a massive hit if converted to snow.

RGEM is probably closer to a good solution than GGEM now. I like the GFS at present, and RGEM more or less in line with it. Can't see 4" QPF on this sort of evolution, 2.5" maybe. Suspect the answer is 0.5-1.0 inches rain, briefly sleet then followed by 10-15 inches snow for some coastal areas BOS south, less mix north, and 15-25 inches snow for most inland e MA and se NH, 10-20 southern coastal Maine.

RGEM is a "cub" model ... cold, unified, blizzard.

Here's my simplified onset map ... MONDAY NIGHT

The range of possible outcomes has been narrowed from all possible outcomes to almost all possible outcomes. Science for the win !!!