wxsniss
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Everything posted by wxsniss
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Yikes didn't mean to set off a semantic debate lol... I did say it "ticked warmer". "Hold firm" meaning there was no wholesale jump north to match the Euro. Some of this is no doubt noise too. But I get the nail-biting on the margins. I've been there and not discounting that I'll be there tomorrow.
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It is a tick warmer 12z Saturday but then bonafide Miller B Huge hit northern CT on north... I'd call this GFS holding firm H7:
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Kind of a big GFS run here... Through hr 45... ULL placement over Indiana looks to me like 18z GFS... ie not NAM way west in Indiana
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That's some shoddy geography... I meant NAM still in Illinois while GFS was shooting east in Indiana. Lack of sleep ftl Yeah ICON did not give up any territory... NAM and RGEM out of range, we wait for the big guns
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Odd run, not much value It was clear early on that the ULL was potent and charging north
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And that propagates further downstream... by hour 45, 0z NAM is still in Indiana while 18z GFS was shooting east in Iowa
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Fwiw hour 36 (and may not be worth anything), using the test of the ULL placement in Arkansas vs. Missouri at 12z Friday... 0z NAM looks just as north and amped as 18z run...
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Here's what I was talking about above... differences already at 42h (12z Friday)... GFS left, NAM right:
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Agree Tip summed it: we've been headfaked by compelling guidance so many times this winter, and by a similar synopsis just days ago. On the other hand, GFS has been amazingly steady relative to the Euro. I haven't looked carefully but someone should check upstream realtime location of the ULL ejecting from the southwest. For example at hour 12z Friday, GFS has it over central-south Arkansas vs. NAM has it already into Missouri vs. Euro has it northern Arkansas. The differences amplify from there.
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Just catching up, noticed 12z/18z GFS close H7, nice CCB Tough forecast for the margins, especially ~ pike south... 50 mile error is well within range
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ICON looks like carbon copy of GFS
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24hr snowfall on 6z GFS, 10:1 key thing to highlight... this is all under 84hrs I think for the first time this season...!
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If the goalposts are GFS and Euro, we are golden. Still would rather Euro continue to trend towards GFS to give us more buffer. It's really striking how steady the GFS has been with this vs. Euro cycling back 10+ runs.
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Kind of similar to the trailing energy today. As Tip called it, the "leitmotif". Feels like variation of today's theme, except a much more robust system and earlier commitment to secondary before decay.
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0z / 12z... I think this is a significant step towards the consensus (led by king GFS?)
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You're right... it's not by much. But it does transfer to the secondary a tick faster than 12z.
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There it is... 0z Euro is starting to cave... can see a transfer by 12z Sat
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I commented on this last night... GFS has been remarkably steady for ~10 runs now. Euro quite the opposite, with steps north that (hopefully) may have overshot by over-amplifying the primary and holding on too long. So... in the growing chatter about dethroning the king, this upcoming system will be one of the more prominent showdowns of GFS vs. Euro.
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Portrait of a decaying system The best dynamics never made it further northeast. For most of eastern MA, aside from that first hour last night, pretty meager rates and snowgrowth everywhere. Compounded by warming temps since 12z today, this had no chance even with northern stream infusion this afternoon. I can't find a single forecast (including stereotypically conservative forecasters like Dave Epstein) that had 0-2" for northeastern half of MA.
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Haven't looked carefully to decipher it, but there must be some impact of having this current system pass on the upcoming confluence. Maybe trends tonight (beginning with this 18z GFS we hope) will reflect that.
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Ironically, one of the rare instances when Dave Epstein put out a forecast that was not conservative, and that too busted
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Disappointing for sure. I thought this event would surely top Feb 23. Kudos to Boston metro schools for not simply using the surplus of unspent school days Do we get a single warning event this year...
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Best rates were in the first hour 1-2am... but for the most part dry air and poor snowgrowth quickly turned this into an under-performer for eastern Mass overnight The best dynamics simply did not survive this far northeast compared to CT I wonder how qpf compares to the robust mesos yesterday And for the rest of the day... mesos aren't giving me confidence that we see rates sufficient to overcome temps currently above freezing past 495 belt
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Wetbulbed a bit too, now 29/26 Mesos tempered a bit but still think we see >4” Your elevation will help
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...and fwiw, GFS has objectively been the most consistent for the past 4 runs Euro has been steadily ticking north and I suspect overshot, perhaps over-amplified the primary that held on too long +/- underestimated the confluence on the 0z run
