jaxjagman

Ninas knocking on the door

Best chance of tropical genesis into the GOM would seemingly be more into June.Least today there could be a Kelvin Wave moving into by some models along with the CFS across the Yucatan,this certainly would be a time frame to watch,BUT 3-4 weeks out is beyond trustworthy right now

Could get some good thunderstorms next weekend somewhere in the Valley, if the Euro is right as the boundary slips southward.Not very exciting looking right now but CIPS does show a risk as well.

Upwelling seemingly has done a job.Long range models are hinting at another KW passing across the IDL after the Mid month .Could be some tropical genesis into the GOM afterwards towards June or just into if its correct

NMME'S fall into winter

Ouch

No doubt about Nashville.Last i heard they still have thousands without power plus some won't have it back for a week

Starting to see a few wind damage reports URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 935 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 TNZ005>008-023>028-057-059-050500- /O.NEW.KOHX.HW.W.0001.200505T0235Z-200505T0500Z/ Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Houston-Humphreys-Dickson- Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Hickman-Williamson- Including the cities of Dover, Clarksville, Springfield, Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Waverly, New Johnsonville, McEwen, Dickson, Ashland City, Kingston Springs, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Centerville, Franklin, and Brentwood 935 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020 ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT... * WHAT...Wind gusts up to 60 mph * WHERE...Portions of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...Until midnight CDT tonight. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Using my Verizon2Go,our Comcast went out and still is out since my last post.Lots of trees down and power outage,luckily we still have power but internet is extremely slow and hard to use This was a crazy vid tho during the storm

NIA reported gust to 71MPH

113000 folks without power in Davidson Co

Internet finally came on,lots of wind damage on Concord Rd by my house with trees down some small hail

Wind gust around Ashland City should be over 80mph

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived and fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over western Tennessee will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds along the leading edge of the storms is the primary threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Nashville TN to 30 miles south southeast of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN KENTUCKY INTO WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are likely this afternoon over Kentucky and Tennessee. Other strong to severe storms are possible farther east extending from West Virginia to the Delmarva, across the northern and central High Plains, and over a small portion of west-central Texas. ...KY/TN area... Updates to this outlook include expanding the 30% wind probabilities east ahead of the ongoing MCS, and expanding the 15 and 5% farther southeast toward northern AL. While a capping inversion may limit the southern threat areas, the deep cold pool associated with this system may allow for a threat farther southeast than expected. The greatest threat will continue to be over the Enhanced Risk area, closer to the instability axis and ahead of the apex of the bow.

Mesoscale Discussion 0519 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Areas affected...Much of Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158... Valid 032008Z - 032115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 158 continues. SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of relatively brief and weak tornadoes, across Middle Tennessee, including the Greater Nashville Metropolitan area by 4-5 PM CDT. A new severe weather watch likely will be issued to the east of WW 158 shortly. DISCUSSION...Supported by inflow of moist boundary layer air with CAPE on the order of 1500+ J/kg, a relatively compact but organized and vigorous mesoscale convective system is maintaining intensity as it progresses east of the Mississippi River. Based on recent radar trends, the severe hail threat appears to have diminished, at least somewhat. However, damaging wind gusts continue to be observed, particularly to the southeast of the lower/mid tropospheric mesoscale convective vortex which may turn eastward near/along the Kentucky/Tennessee border. System motion has shown little signs of slowing, and at around 50 kts, convection appears on track to impact the Nashville metroplitan area between 4 and 5 PM CDT. Maintenance of convective intensity, and continuation of associated severe wind and potential for relatively brief, weak tornadoes, into the Cumberland Plateau remains more unclear. Based on its current motion, this possible by 7-8 PM EDT. However, drier air emanating from southeastern U.S. surface ridging may result in less unstable inflow and weakening convective trends as suggested by at least some model output, including the last few runs of the High-resolution Rapid Refresh.

Yeah its fixing to run into SBcapes around 2800 in West Tn,per mesoscale

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Arkansas Extreme Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri West Tennessee * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1145 AM until 600 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of severe thunderstorms over southern Missouri will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of West Plains MO to 20 miles southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected today from the Ozarks eastward across western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee. Other strong to severe storms are possible farther east in Kentucky into the southern Delmarva, across the northern and central High Plains, and over a small portion of west-central Texas. ...Southern MO into western KY/TN... A fast-moving bow echo has developed across southern MO. This cluster of storms has produced many reports of damaging winds and hail this morning, and is tracking into a region where strong heating and substantial low-level moisture is present. This should help to maintain intensity through the day as storms track into parts of KY/TN. Therefore have added a small ENH risk for this threat. Refer to MCD #517 for further detail. ...Central KY/TN into WV and Mid-Atlantic region... Most 12z model guidance shows scattered afternoon convection forming along the surface boundary from central KY into northern WV as the upper trough approaches. This activity is likely to be less organized than the bowing structure farther west, due to weaker instability and rather weak low-level winds. Nevertheless, a few of the storms may pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail through the late afternoon and evening hours.

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sun May 03 2020 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks eastward across Kentucky, Tennessee and toward the southern Delmarva today into this evening. Additional isolated severe storms are possible across the northern and central High Plains, and over a small portion of west-central Texas mainly late this afternoon and evening. ...Ozarks and Kentucky/Tennessee to the Southern Delmarva... Multiple east/southeastward-moving mid-level impulses will be influential today, roughly coincident with a south/southeastward-spreading cold front that will roughly extend west/southwest to east/northeast across these regions. A southwesterly low-level influx of moisture precedes the front, while a strong elevated-mixed-layer, as noted in 12Z regional observed soundings, puts the southern extent of the severe risk a bit into question across the Tennessee Valley/Mid-South. Related to a low-amplitude but amplifying mid-level shortwave trough and early-day warm/moist advection regime, a relatively well-organized cluster of currently elevated strong/severe thunderstorms is ongoing across southeast Kansas as of 13Z. While not well handled by short-term guidance, there may be enough ascent/mesoscale organization to allow a southeast continuation of some early day severe potential along the front, although a weakening low-level jet/abating warm advection could ultimately influence a weakening trend later this morning. Regardless, while the specific longevity of this stronger early-day convection is not certain, possible MCV augmentation and downstream differential heating should be sufficient to, at the very least, focus surface-based thunderstorm redevelopment into the afternoon near the southward-sagging front and nearby warm sector, on the northern fringes of an otherwise stout elevated-mixed-layer/cap. This includes parts of southern Missouri/northern Arkansas into Kentucky/western Tennessee. Damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. Farther east, in the wake of early-day/diminishing convection, the air mass will become unstable this afternoon along/south of the front from central/eastern Kentucky into portions of West Virginia/Virginia and the Delmarva vicinity. At least widely scattered thunderstorms should develop/intensify this afternoon and persist into the evening, with severe hail/wind possible.

That's still impressive for Mid May,if its close to being right ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI LAT= 36.47 LON= -82.40 ELE= 1519 00Z MAY03 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 03-MAY 64.3 54.9 21004 40 SUN 06Z 03-MAY 64.6 56.3 57.2 49.6 24004 31 SUN 12Z 03-MAY 57.7 54.0 57.8 51.3 23004 0.00 0.00 29 SUN 18Z 03-MAY 74.9 57.8 75.1 55.4 25008 0.00 0.00 1 MON 00Z 04-MAY 76.1 67.4 66.9 59.1 25007 0.03 0.00 99 MON 06Z 04-MAY 66.9 60.5 60.5 60.3 32004 0.29 0.00 100 MON 12Z 04-MAY 60.5 53.6 54.7 52.9 35002 0.03 0.00 10 MON 18Z 04-MAY 69.2 54.7 69.3 41.6 33005 0.00 0.00 29 TUE 00Z 05-MAY 70.6 62.6 62.0 52.2 03004 0.00 0.00 99 TUE 06Z 05-MAY 62.1 54.4 54.5 45.5 09003 0.00 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 05-MAY 54.8 51.3 52.5 51.9 14005 0.37 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 05-MAY 66.1 52.5 66.3 61.0 24008 0.24 0.00 93 WED 00Z 06-MAY 68.4 58.9 58.7 56.4 31008 0.19 0.00 92 WED 06Z 06-MAY 58.7 51.0 50.9 48.7 31005 0.01 0.00 35 WED 12Z 06-MAY 50.9 45.6 49.2 46.9 26004 0.00 0.00 47 WED 18Z 06-MAY 62.0 49.2 62.1 41.5 28009 0.02 0.00 88 THU 00Z 07-MAY 62.2 50.3 50.1 48.5 23004 0.22 0.00 57 THU 06Z 07-MAY 50.1 43.3 43.2 42.5 30006 0.14 0.00 41 THU 12Z 07-MAY 43.2 39.6 41.5 39.5 31005 0.00 0.00 28 THU 18Z 07-MAY 57.1 41.5 57.5 28.2 33008 0.00 0.00 73 FRI 00Z 08-MAY 61.7 52.7 52.3 38.7 35004 0.00 0.00 97 FRI 06Z 08-MAY 52.3 43.7 44.7 36.9 17003 0.00 0.00 95 FRI 12Z 08-MAY 46.5 44.6 45.7 39.9 19005 0.06 0.00 100 FRI 18Z 08-MAY 52.5 44.5 52.1 50.7 26003 0.22 0.00 100 SAT 00Z 09-MAY 54.1 50.1 49.8 48.2 31008 0.19 0.00 99 SAT 06Z 09-MAY 49.8 41.0 40.8 37.8 34008 0.01 0.00 50 SAT 12Z 09-MAY 40.7 31.3 33.4 25.3 31005 0.00 0.00 2 SAT 18Z 09-MAY 45.4 33.4 45.5 18.6 31009 0.00 0.00 1 SUN 00Z 10-MAY 49.0 41.8 41.5 22.6 31007 0.00 0.00 36 SUN 06Z 10-MAY 41.5 33.2 33.1 24.0 27005 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 10-MAY 34.0 30.0 34.6 25.6 27003 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 18Z 10-MAY 52.6 34.6 52.8 24.7 29010 0.00 0.00 67 MON 00Z 11-MAY 53.3 46.3 45.9 32.2 31006 0.00 0.00 20 MON 06Z 11-MAY 45.9 37.1 37.5 30.9 20003 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 11-MAY 40.5 34.9 41.3 33.3 18002 0.00 0.00 1 MON 18Z 11-MAY 60.8 41.3 61.0 37.4 24010 0.00 0.00 24 TUE 00Z 12-MAY 62.2 56.2 55.8 48.5 27005 0.01 0.00 94 TUE 06Z 12-MAY 55.8 46.3 45.9 44.6 04003 0.01 0.00 98 TUE 12Z 12-MAY 46.4 44.0 46.6 44.0 07002 0.00 0.00 98 TUE 18Z 12-MAY 64.1 46.6 64.4 45.2 24002 0.00 0.00 24 WED 00Z 13-MAY 67.4 61.1 60.7 54.3 18003 0.00 0.00 20

See if the RAP is hinting at something.As the boundary slips Southward the 3Capes at least get up to mid to upper 70's even around 80 east of Nashville,so this could become more surface based into the Mid afternoon with steep lapse rates so could see some weak supercells by SARS.Wind and hail still looks like the primary

Subsurface continues to cool.By the looks right now into the 2nd week of May the MJO and Kelvin Wave could do some real damage into region 3 where the warmest waters are into the thermocline.Seemingly, we are fixing to see the start of Nina