jaxjagman

You guys get any of the storm last night?They put us in a watch but i figured it would go west of us,it was dropping S from Kentucky.Seen some 80 mph winds on my radar in Southern Kentucky,70 mph towards the KY/Tn line into Tn but it looked like it was starting to weaken the further S it went,i went to bed by the time it got to you guys

May the PDO warmed .Not all Ninos seem to work the same.The super Nino of 82-83,in May of 1982(I.E) the PDO cooled to -1.17 and more or less fluctuated back and forth from negative to positive the remainder of that said year,1982.

Thermocline is getting warm in 3.4..Jamstec shows a moderate Modoki into fall,then it starts to weaken into winter

Yeah,i was taking a nap and missed it :(.I caught the storm on my radar after it passed Lawrence Co.But it as well put up a couple OFB's into Alabama and So.Middle Tn late afternoon,we can't get nothing here

Storms are firing up a long a new OFB in Southern Middle Valley

I have a friend who lives in Loretto,Tn who shared some pics on my facebook page.Tore some of his shingles off his home,tore his gutter almost completely off and threw his trampoline across his yard into the woods,plus numerous trees uprooted,that was a violent storm that swept through like you said

We totally whiffed out of what the models showed.We should have gotten more rain here.Friday was the killer to start with,with the dry air intrusion that neither the GFS or Euro showed.Don't think we even got a quarter inch of rain from this mess the last couple days here, didn't expect much in the way of severe here,but i thought we'd at least get more rain...sigh... Hopefully we get some good storms over night.GFS shows MUCapes above 5k in the afternoon in the Mid Valley Sunday,what were those lotto numbers again?

Slight risk tomorrow,southern areas.Nashville seems to think the slight risk will be expanded,so we'll see what the next update shows.For today so far: ...MO/AR into KY/TN/MS... A cold front currently extends from central MO into northeast AR. Scattered thunderstorms will develop along this front this afternoon, spreading eastward into parts of western KY/TN and northern MS this evening. Relatively strong wind fields in this area suggest some risk of severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A consensus of model solutions suggest that afternoon t-td spreads will only be the 10-12 degree F range. This combined with poor mid-level lapse rates lend uncertainty to a more robust severe event. This area will be monitored in later updates.

Marginal for Thurs,Western Valley ...Mid to lower MS Valley... Cool air aloft with the upper trough and ample low-level moisture will lead to areas of 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE from TX to IL. Complicating this forecast scenario will be widespread precipitation and clouds early in the day. However, a plume of heating and steepening low-level lapse rates is expected to develop mainly along and west of the MS river. Given cool temperatures aloft, an arc of diurnal re-development is expected. Hail and wind will be possible, and portions of the area may eventually be upgraded to a Slight Risk once predictability issues decrease in later outlooks. Marginal for most of all the Valley,with the exception of the far NW ...Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley... A large area of thunderstorm potential will exist from the MS River to the Appalachians with substantial moisture in place and relatively cool air aloft with the upper trough. The most likely area for severe storms appears to be from the Arklatex into northern AL, and northward into KY. However, given the likelihood of antecedent outflows and early/ongoing storms, predictability is low. A Slight Risk may be needed in some parts of the area in later outlooks Possibly a decent MCS late night Sat into Sunday morning,as to where it goes is the question.But the Euro and GFS both show it right now

Yeah at least right now we have some jet and shear showing to work with during the time frame you mentioned.

https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

Like the way the IMME looks into fall severe season"Modoki" in which Modoki goes from JULY-DEC .But into Dec it's showing the warmest SST'S into region 3.But it's much weaker than the NMME with it's basin wide moderate look,but we're still talking months away

Warm waters in the thermocline in region 3 and 3.4 showing up.NMME shows this into July reaching the surface

The MJO looks to show stronger signals into around the Caribbean/GOM in a couple weeks,plus with a passing Kelvin.It wouldn't totally surprise me if the GFS is right,it's been showing tropical genesis forever it seems.Euro don't really show much right now,but there looks to be a wave it shows headed towards the Yucatan,but it doesn't develop it.

Depression headed towards Vietnam,don't really see nothing of a typhoon right now with also clouds even further east of that which could develop something.Asia though looks really active in the long range from VietNam into Korea.This bodes well with a potential wet pattern, MJO towards the mid month and beyond for the Valley.Seems odd middle of June potential though in summer we see a potential wet pattern like this compared to past summer times

Looks like the system i said into the latter part of the first week of June is going to go north of the Valley.PNA has been showing more positive around the 6th through the 9th,unlike the earlier runs.But the crap winds right now,probably wouldn't have mattered anyways...lol

With the drought in the plains we shouldnt see a system going through Texas with more of a anti-cyclonic flow,seems like if something if it were to develop would either go east of Texas or go into Mexico,least right now anyways,but we'd rather see a tropical system as far west as you get though it might work out for you guys in the east but we need to see a storm first

Not only is the GOM favorable for tropical genesis,there is also potential with the favorable MJO in Asia for a recurving typhoon,if it were to evolve #activepotentialfortheValley

Slight risk now for the Western Valley,hail and wind tomorrow potential right now Should dry out in the Valley for few days then become unsettled again,we could get in the lower 90's around next weekend Middle Valley even hotter in the West Valley,east seems to be a dart throwing competition. Chance for tropical genesis once again into the GOM towards the mid month.If the Euro is right there would be a good trough coming through the Valley Mid month coming out of Asia in the long run.Either way,MJO,etc.,etc.,the wet pattern is coming back seemingly,we'll see. Above median precipitation is most likely for parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into the interior Southeast, where dynamical model forecasts, including the ECMWF, CFS, JMA, and SubX MME, indicate enhanced atmospheric moisture flow from the tropics, including the potential for tropical storm activity. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Was watching the radar and it looked like a band trained around the Chatty area for a couple hours around the time you are talking about.We got one good band with no thunder

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed May 30 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA VICINITY...AS WELL AS THE MID MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND SURROUNDING AREAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday from the Missouri Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys as well as the northern High Plains and northern Rockies. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough near the West Coast at the start of the period is progged to advance slowly eastward toward the Intermountain West. Meanwhile, a smaller/shorter-wavelength trough will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest regions and vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will progress slowly across the Intermountain West ahead of the western trough, while a second/weaker front crosses the Great Lakes region. Weaker troughing/low pressure -- enhanced by convective outflows -- is also expected to linger in a west-to-east zone from the Kansas/Oklahoma area into the lower Ohio Valley area. ...The Ozarks into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... While the background environment across the region appears favorable for development of organized/severe storms Thursday, a somewhat complex/uncertain evolution of convective risk is evident -- largely due to overnight/late Day 1 convection which should be moving out of the Oklahoma/Kansas area across the Ozarks/southern Missouri vicinity. Models differ with respect to how widespread/organized the lingering convection is likely to be, and thus locations of associated convective outflows and associated cloud cover. In addition, some guidance suggests re-intensification of this convection early in the day as it crosses the Tennessee Valley vicinity, prior to the main round storms expected to develop later in the day. Given the uncertainties regarding early convective evolution and the effects on timing/location of subsequent development, will maintain 15%/SLGT risk across the region. As Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear, an upgraded corridor of enhanced risk for Thursday may become necessary, as afternoon destabilization of the moist boundary layer away from convectively contaminated areas combined with enhanced mid-level westerlies associated with the advancing short-wave trough will result in an environment favorable for organized/severe storms. In general, loose agreement amongst various models suggests afternoon storm redevelopment over the vicinity of the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys, which could tend toward upscale growth toward linear/bowing segments. While some risk for a couple of tornadoes may evolve -- particularly near remnant boundaries, damaging winds along with some hail can be expected. Threat may continue through much of the evening, spreading eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Meanwhile, a broader zone of lesser risk appears to extend eastward to the Appalachians region, where ample afternoon CAPE but weaker flow aloft suggests more disorganized convection. A risk for damaging winds locally, along with some hail, can be expected with stronger cells from afternoon through early evening.

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible Thursday from the Missouri Ozarks to the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valleys as well as the northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... Synoptic trough will advance through the Great Lakes and OH Valley Thursday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough now approaching southern AZ will reach the middle MS Valley 12Z Thursday before continuing through the southern portion of the OH Valley during the day. Farther west a high-amplitude upper trough will move through the western states. At the start of the period a weak cold front should extend from the Great Lakes into the upper MS Valley and central Plains. A quasi-stationary/warm front will extend from a weak low in northwest TX through OK and the lower MS Valley, while dryline persists across west TX. Farther north a cold front will extend from the High Plains of MT through the northern Rockies. ...Southern MO through KY and TN... In the wake of Alberto, 70F dewpoints will reside in the warm sector. Meanwhile, an increase in westerly trajectories will contribute to eastward expansion of the elevated mixed layer through the lower MS and western portion of TN Valley above the very moist boundary layer. These processes and expected diabatic warming should result in moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE from 2000-2500 J/kg during the afternoon. Storms may be ongoing in association with progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough from OK into southeast KS and southwest MO. Evolution of the early storms is uncertain, but new development and or intensification of additional storms along associated outflow boundaries may occur as the downstream atmosphere destabilizes. An increase in flow through the mid-levels accompanying the shortwave trough will contribute to 30-40 kt effective bulk shear supportive of some organized storm structures, including bowing segments with damaging wind and hail the primary threats from afternoon into the evening.

Euro continues this pathetic severe season in the Valley,we can't even get a tropical system to produce..lol

Alberto got relocated further east today/tonight,so the storm is being shown further east on tonight's models,yeah that's how i feel..lol.The better winds are now being shown to the east of Middle Valley ,east of I-65 anyways,maybe more towards the plateau,but better potential flooding for us as it looks the system could go over Nashville right now,per GFS and NAM

Nice catch.I believe we are talking about the same system but i'm slower than what the models are showing or the models are fast,we shall see.Yesterday the the AO was being shown going negative and today it's being shown slightly positive with still a -PNA,less suppressed system