michsnowfreak

Came up to a cabin in the Grayling area for a long weekend. As has been discussed to death, depressing to see brown ground state wide on the drive up. Hardly any snow but fortunately still a good frozen 3-5" here in the woods. In town its patchy. Looks like a trace at home overnight. Random fact- between having many good stretches at home and my annual "up north" winter trip, I have not had a winter where I have not seen snow depth in double digits since probably 2003-04 (started the annual north trips in 2007). This year, the deepest snow I have seen was 7" at home in January. Unless mother mature has a March trick up her sleeve lol.

Neutral is definitely fine. I just meant when el nino vs la nina...la nina ALL the way.

Record is 8 consecutive days in 2017. The most 50+ days in Feb: 12- 2017 11- 1976 9- 1880 9- 1882 8- 1930 8- 2000 8- 2018 8- 2023 7- 1984 6- 1932 6- 1938 6- 1954 6- 2016

Lake effect locations moving observation spots can make a huge difference, and should be noted in the local climate records. Marquette only has records to 1961, but it is in the snowiest location in that area. If they actually kept the records in the city of Marquette the snowfall would be much lower. Moving locations is usually a non issue in the longrun for non-lake belt spots though, snow wise.

Agree. We ALL did great during several big winters from the mid-2000s to mid-2010s, but the ones that are not region-wide blockbusters or region-wide stinkers tend to have pockets of good and bad snowwise, regardless of temperature departure. Prior to this winter, the previous 4 winters southeast Michigan overall did pretty average while ohio was well below (except '20-21). On the flip side I remember a few 1990s winters where cleveland did very well (at least partially thanks to the lake) and we did very meh.

This falls under the LONG long range, but it will be interesting to monitor the La Nina thread in the general weather forum. If and when the nina develops how strong it gets, if it is modoki, how active hurricane season is, etc. 2024-25 >>>>>>> 2023-24

Its not even a contest. Strong Ninos are the worst scenario here. Nina is a vast improvement.

The results are also good for Detroit. Current 1991-2020 avg: 45.0". Period of record avg: 41.0". Avg snowfall for the top 10 ACE: 44.5" Avg for the 9 MODOKI Ninas since 1950: 49.2" Avg for all 24 Ninas since 1950: 44.5" Avg for a strong NINO since 1950: 30.7" Avg for a strong NINA since 1950: 49.2" I should also note that the # of good winters outpaces the bad winters in Ninas, and the few dud snow years that kept the curve in the 40s-inches were good winters in other places, just not here.

Thats crazy. Does syracuse usually get a lot of LES? Looks like this is Cleveland and Erie's worst 10-year stretch since the 1920s-30s, but that stretch was worse. Ohio has been in quite a snow rut. You can include Toledo, as multiple events seem to diverse at the MI/OH line, esp the last two years (plus TOL is actually well south and west of the actual city, so I dont usually pay attention to that area, but the last 2 years have been crazy low).

Im headed to a cabin in Frederic for a 4-day weekend Fri-Mon. My yearly up north late winter trip. Since I started this annual trip in 2007 (go to a different place in either upper or northern lower MI each year) I cannot recall such a year without a winter up north. There should still be a few crusty inches left in Frederic, but parts of the keewenaw are bare. Depressing as that is, the northern wilderness is a nice getaway at anytime of the year. With the "law of averages/balancing" AND a la nina coming, Id just cut my losses on this year up north and get snow rakes and stuff while they are clearance, because they will need them next year

Exactly! I have estimated this winter with finish 4th warmest on record for Detroit, but the top 3 (1881-82, 1931-32, 1918-19) have remained comfortably on top for good reason.

Quite a diurnal spread today. After a low of 28F, DTW shot up to 61F.

LMAO. No. He literally has zero knowledge of any weather past or present in our region other than playing around on xmacis. The examples are countless, but he couldnt even tell you what happened last year, much less 10 years ago or 140 years ago. I was informed by his majesty that DTWs 37.1" of snow last winter was not representative of SE MI because Toledo Express Apt (70 miles SW of DTW) only had 14.3". Even though Ann Arbor 25 miles west had 51.6", & White Lake (40 miles north) had 44.7" and Flint 46.5". I really dont even think he has a genuine interest in CC, its obviously more an extremist agenda for him. We have a CC forum for this reason. Just like we have banter threads, general month threads, storm threads etc. In any of your other rants, you get on anyone citing a statistic, an average, or etc, letting them know that it is unacceptable to like winter and accept average. Yet you come to the defense of the most one-dimentional type of poster there is, nothing but numbers with zero explanation. Just confusing to me. What do I think of this winter? I think its been HORRIBLE!!! But two unusually warm winters in a row with a roaring pacific and this year a strong Nino is not going to suddenly be your new climate. There is a difference between weather and climate, and I dont think anyone on here denies global CC, so we shouldnt all have to put in a preface acknowledging CC anytime we want to make a post discussing WEATHER on a WEATHER forum. BTW, I know we did a little better here in MI, but its a crime to lump this winter in with every year since 2015. We have had some great months and one good harsh winter (17-18). Did we come down to earth from the snow blitz before that? Absolutely! Let me explain to you how averages work. Since 2015-16, Chicago has averaged 34.9" of snow the past 8 winters, which is about 2" below the longterm avg. The previous 8 winters before that Chicago averaged 50.9", about 14" above avg. No way in hell were they going to sustain that. And yes, I am aware you dont accept your average. Im just explaining.

Whats even funnier...is you can read newspaper articles from other historically warm winters (1881-82, 1889-90, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1982-83, etc) and they discuss the abnormal warmth, lack of snow, and "open" winter as they called them....and manage to actually discuss the oddities of the weather WITHOUT throwing CC into every (or any) sentence. Also, they do not plaster it as a front page spread contrary to what youve heard. I know as I have a subscription to view any daily newspaper since 1837. Oh, and btw, Detroits 3 warmest winters are 1881-82, 1931-32, & 1889-90. Stay tuned for TCC's expert analysis of why those records are wrong and shouldnt count

Fall is one of my favorite times of year, So yes, a 1963 type torch would disgust me. But a 2012 type of march is pretty much one of the only things in weather where you are just asking for agricultural disaster. For things to bloom so advanced so early, freeze damage risk is huge. Most fruit crops are grown in rural areas where temps plummet on cold nights. So let's say you have a frosty 31° on April 28th in Detroit. It's probably 22° at Joe Blows orchard. The only two times I know of when things bloomed so ungodly early were 1945 & 2012, and each saw ruined crops due to freeze.

I was talking specifically snow. The amount of snowfall and the number of large snowstorms during that timeframe I discussed FAR exceeded longterm averages. Again, to the point it was unlike anything in our period of record. While not as extreme, snowcover days were also comfortably above longterm averages. A winter with avg or slightly colder than avg temps and a lot of snow will absolutely seem more severe than a winter with well below avg temps and light snowfall. And with colder winters you run the risk of suppression and less snowfall. These last 2 winters were far warmer than average and absolutely not the norm. Snow climatology is a continually evolving thing, just like everything else in the weather. What happens in the coming winters all we can do is wait and see.

February has been quite sunny, but December & January were extremely cloudy, at least in MI.

I dont get the love for a freak warm March ala 2012. Thats why I have no problem rooting for what others consider miserable spring cold.

Bring on La Nina

Powerball is correct. Many cities in this sub had a record stretch of snow from about 2008-2015, and also a few great winters pre-2008 as well. As someone who is a local climate "expert" you always get somewhat of a balancing out, even if not fully. Averages do sway up and down over time, but we were far above our climo from the mid-00s to mid-10s. All that said, what I CAN tell you regarding ENSO is that most of the enso states (3 strengths of nino, neutral, 3 strengths of nina) have a higher probability of a certain type of winter, but usually with a few exceptions. The ONLY state that is a pretty much guarantee is what we had this year, a strong Nino. Some are better than others, but NOT ONCE have we had a good winter in a strong Nino, and this dates back to the 1870s. You can bank on a warm winter overall, and just hope that you get a few periods of fun. Meanwhile, a weak El Nino is often a cold and snowy winter here. A switch from El Nino to La Nina is often welcome news for our region. La Ninas often, though not always, are snowy, stormy winters. They also have a tendancy to be more front-loaded, though again, this is not always the case.

Oh from a cold/ice perspective I expect nothing. Strong El Nino plus a raging pacific made this a terrible winter. There is nothing, not an April 1886 redux or anything, that can change that. Im just more interested in a snowstorm, which really is a threat any given March/April regardless of the pattern (and when I say a threat, I mean regionally...who and when would get a storm, if it happens, no idea). Top 3 worst winters of my lifetime would be 1997-98, 2011-12, & 2023-24, but I cant rank this winter until the snow is for sure over. I suppose I should put an asterisk for 1988-89 but too young to remember, and the grand stinkeroo of 1982-83, but I wasnt born til May '83, so I was developing throughout the winter

To be honest, I completely forgot about May. Knew 2012 was a very hot summer though. But also to be fair, sometimes Feb 2015 doesnt get its fair due for its cold departures which were similar to March 2012's warm departures.

I always wonder what goes into those maps. I mean, if they arent using the official data, what ARE they using? It shows a slight decrease in southern MI, but the official data says otherwise. A regression line at Detroit from 1973-74 to 2022-23 shows snowfall increase from 44.8" to 45.5" and Flint saw a big increase from 46.5" to 55.5". Saginaw saw an increase from 42.3" to 50.3". Grand Rapids saw an increase from 67.9" to 79.8". Increases across the board at 1st order stations. NYC saw an increase from 22.2" to 30.7"., Boston saw an increase from 40.6" to 48.0". Using two places that have consistent data with no missing data...in the last 50 years NYC saw snowfall increase from 22.2" to 30.7" but 1"+ snowcover days decrease from 22 to 19. DTW saw snowfall increase from 44.8" to 45.5" but 1"+ snowcover days decrease from 53 to 46. So its snowing more but also melting more.

The cfs and euro weeklies, terrible as they have been, are insistent on mid-March cold. Im hoping it can spin up one of those mid-late March strong Nino snowstorms lol.

Me too. Im definitely interested in the insistence of the CFS and Euro weeklies (though the weeklies have been awful) on mid-late March cold because that matches up extremely well to many strong El Nino Marches (warm first half/cold second half, often a snowstorm). If it happens it happens, if it doesnt it doesnt. But not going to avoid discussion of it because its not what the masses want. El Nino or not, the amount of times we have seen a big mid to late March snowstorm after a mild winter is crazy.