michsnowfreak

No flakes here, but we are due for some no-flake Octobers. Historically its a 50/50 chance, but 9 of the last 13 seasons have seen the first flakes in October at DTW.

Hes an agenda troll. Marquette clearly has missing data from the 1960s, just as Toledo did in the graph he posted. The snowiest winter on record for the Keewenaw Peninsula in the U.P. (an even snowier local than MQT) is actually the very cold winter of 1978-79 with like 380". The freezing of Lake Superior is a different beast than that of the other Great Lakes. The 1960s were much colder winters than the mild 1950s, but the real cold winters decade was the 1970s. Marquettes snowfall is taken outside of the city in Negaunee, an area that is actually MUCH snowier than the city itself. very micro-climatey there. Not sure if those 1960s numbers werent in Negaunee but rather in the city itself, or if it was just missing data.

This makes it 2 straight snowy Halloweens in Minneapolis. Last Halloween was snowy in Detroit, this one is warm and windy.

I think they go by both names.

Last year was even worse. Multiple runs showed all time highs of 108-110°, and instead for the first time in 108 years Detroit failed to pass 90°.

I notice with the gfs in summer it was actually too hot in long range then cooled inside 200 hrs. Not sure if every model has a different bias.

Columbus is actually the most appealing big city in Ohio imo. Fortunately DTW still averages 4° colder in winter and averages 17" more snow than CMH

2011-12 was one of the outliers. Ninas aren't set in stone, but nina trends are definitely wetter/snowier with a big temp gradient usually keeping the north colder than avg and the south warmer than avg.

Definitely quite a bit. Obviously lots of all kinds of different trees, but what always stand out to me is the high number or horse chestnut trees.

And the eps ran too warm when this first weekend of November was in the longrange. It's logical to exercise caution with ANY longrange forecast.

Thought this was neat. A Sycamore vs a maple leaf in my backyard.

Always enjoy your posts. Please do not be a stranger this winter!

I'm assuming George misspoke. The northern plains are the center of late october/early November warmth, but will quite likely be some of the colder anomalies this winter. Nearly all models show this to one extent or another, and it's definitely nina climo to boot.

Fall and spring are the battle seasons. Lots of extremes and up and downs. Winter and summer duke it out. The difference, of course, is those warm autumn days will soon lose to winter, just as those spring snowfalls quickly lose to summer.

Nice! Yes i wait til Thanksgiving week to turn them on usually.

I know you're relatively new to the midwest. No one is disputing a mild November. But you have to remember a few things. Averages tank throughout November. And we have had quite a few cold/snowy novembers the last decade that have led to mild winters. And our harshest winter of the last decade (2017-18) started with a mild November. (Historically there is no november-winter correlation though).

Breaking out of the super dry pattern in November is perfect timing ahead of winter. It's very common to see mild, dry Autumn's lead to wet winters in la ninas (though this autumn was extra dry). Although in my perfect world winter would start November 1st, I'm not worried at all about a mild November. Weve had plenty of cold, snowy novembers in recent years. Plus ill be busy getting all the Christmas decor ready lol.

No doubt canada will be colder. Lake effect will probably crank early in the season too. You have to remember, it's very easy to get LES with cold fronts in early winter when the lakes are "warm". Side note...November (at least here) is the month of the year with the largest difference in average temperature from the 1st day of the month to the last.

DTW set a record high of 79 today. Strong winds blowing showers of leaves everywhere.

I'm sure you were joking, but with an expected wet pattern in the OV/Lakes and Canada much colder than last winter...good luck with that lol.

My Autumn Blaze Maple loves to show off this time of year. Savoring these last colorful days!

I think you are good too. If a gradient pattern develops, Massachusetts may do very well. Sometimes you have to sniff the rain to get the best snows.

Great point! The cold in Canada, which is pretty much agreed upon on seasonal models, is very important as we go through winter. I say this every year for us (and anyone else north of 40N), don't let the reds and orange departures on longrange maps get too in your head without thinking about the overall pattern. It's a cold climate, precip SHOULD be plentiful, so no reason to think it won't be a serviceable winter. Is this 2007-15? Absolutely not. But it's no 2023-24 either.

Ah that explains it. We do agree then. It comes from certain individuals on a yearly basis. As for overall tone, I really wouldn't say the overall tone is full dread. Maybe a bit jaded, but the true dreaded tone is from a few of the usual individuals. As has been said many times by me and others, the upper midwest, Great Lakes and northern New England will probably have a good snow season. South of NYC doesn't look so good, but even there you can absolutely get a few good storms. And they never should expect sustained winter anyway. So really, no reason for doom in October.

I've been on weather forums 22 years and my recollection is very different. Is it ever a lost cause in October? No. Are there some who act like/say/imply it's a lost cause in October? Every single year. Without fail. Every single year.