michsnowfreak

I suspect its the same thing we see now. Milder winters caused more LES

you are correct, i didn't know this. One thing that's pretty common no matter where you look is the 1930s-50s were the most putrid period of winters for the northeast half of the country.

The 1970s were the coldest and in many cases snowiest decade on record. Thats why i brought up 100 years, though idk if winter sports were popular in 1920. If a snowmobiles heyday was in the 70s, i would see their point. The same chart ending in 1970 would show Buffalos winters had gotten 1.3° colder in the previous 50 years. just in case you're interested, here is Buffalos avg 6"+ depth days per decade 1900s- 21 1910s- 35 1920s- 26 1930s- 17 1940s- 27 1950s- 11 1960s- 32 1970s- 38 1980s- 27 1990s- 20 2000s- 26 2010s- 21 source: xmacis

Buffalo's average winter temperature averages 1.3° warmer and 2 days less per year with snow on the ground than 100 years ago. (Snowfall itself has increased significantly). It would seem to me like anyone who's into snow activities would still be into them the same. I go to northern MI every Feb and all you see is snowmobiles. We are often the only car parked in a restaurant lot of snowmobiles . I always thought of mid to late winter as the best time over early winter, even though Bing fills our minds with those gorgeous December scenes. Here, our winter temperatures are 0.8° warmer than 100 years ago, snowfall several inches more, and snowcover days have held nearly steady. Basically, it would seem like the slight increase in temperature is giving us more snow & precipitation so the net result is similar snowcover. Again im talking overall. Obviously it varies from year to year. Between 2012-15, the Great Lakes just saw 2 years with record ice cover and 1 year with record early U.P. snowmelt.

what link do you use for the para gfs? it's stuck on like a week old run on tidbits.

Hopefully it would yield a good clipper pattern. Im all for a clipper parade and cold. We've had 3 snowfalls of 3-4" so far which us better than many, but each only lasted on the ground 3-4 days. If it's going to be smaller snows, let's add them up. If it's going to snow melt snow melt snow melt, let's get a big one.

The overnight system brought just 0.08" of light rain, but gusty winds and temperatures rising into the low 40s evaporated our Winter wonderland into piles and a few patches.

Weenie snow pile at the mall lol. Gray and cold winter day today following Christmas snow.

lake effect is amazing

I meant locking in in terms of what areas get hit and what areas don't. if a storms missing us we don't pay as close attention, but for those getting hit by the storm location matters.

nothing on long range models ever locks in anywhere lol

GHD 1 in 2011 DTW got 10.1" which everyone complained about because it underperformed. We had 6" on the ground before the storm. Then on the 5th they called for sunny skies and the area got 4-6". Then, on Feb 20, they called for 1-3" changing to ice instead we got 10.2" of snow. Yet some complained for years bc GHD1 underperformed. Thats how spoiled we were in the 2007-2015 era lol. 2009-10 DTW had 43.7", thanks mostly to Feb. It was not a bad winter here, I can remember you guys being screwed. 2011-12 sucked with 26.0" but it was the only bad apple in a fantastic 8 year stretch. It was nowhere near the alltime futility either (12.9" in 1936-37).

in Feb 2011 we had two 10" storms and a 5" storm. in 2010 we had a 9" storm and I think a 5" storm. no doubt Feb has had the got hand! 2018 also had a 9" storm and 14" snowpack. 2017 the Feb torch disparity is interesting. Did Toronto have any of that snow Feb 1st? because Detroit had a 4" clipper Jan 31.

I suppose the longer they go without snow doesn't hurt to watch, but considering they can get snow for 4 more months, it'll be tough to do. The all time futility for Chicago is 9.8" in 1920-21.

Interesting. The extended cfs maps which are equivalent to giving a 3 year old a crayon, are known for their constant changing from run to run (hell you can see record warmth and record cold for a certain timeframe from run to run)...but I've noticed some real cold showing up towards late January and early February. This is the dead of winter so anomalous cold will be very wintry.

I don't fully understand the NAO because its a lot more gray area than the east coast. At least for big storms. Some of our big storms are +NAO, some -NAO. but it would be nice to get into a classic -NAO clipper pattern

if you are talking about seasonal futility for Chicago...the 3rd day of astronomical winter is wayyyyyyy too early to think of that. As in, 2+ months too early. If you are simply talking "least snow thru this date" thats another story.

MSP frequently was missed during some of the bigger winters of the lower Lakes last decade. it all ebbs and flows. MSP got 44" in 2007-08.

so many runs to go, and likely so many solutions

The voice of reason!

GHD1 underperformed here. We still got 10" with about 14" on the ground once the storm passed, but earlier projections were much higher. In fact, coming off of a lot of snowy winters, the way spoiled local weenies responded to the bust you'd have thought we got nothing lol. Id kill to go back to those days, busts and all. It was simply snowy heaven for almost a decade, with one very rotten apple in the middle (11-12).

Once the Christmas season has passed I would love to do a lake effect snow chase. I plan to take lots of walks in the snow throughout winter as well as a trip north in Feb. But chasing some Lake effect would really be fun and something I've never done. Between working from home and not being able to do much with this damn pandemic, great year to do it.

The decade was filled with blockbuster Febs. Detroit is slightly above avg this season to date at 9.2". But literally each of the 3 main snowfalls (Nov 22, Nov 30/Dec 1, Dec 16/17), esp the first two, jackpotted the far southeast corner of the state. An observer in Monroe (between Detroit and Toledo) is at 11.1". This is misleading for anyone outside the immediate metro as Flint and Saginaw have had very low snowfall (2-3" total). Im at 9.3" and have only had 7 days with 1"+ snow on the ground. Should this theme keep up the winter is definitely a dumpster fire from a sustainable perspective but as I always said, temps mean little wrt actual snowfall. It will be funny if Chicago pulls an above avg season by April lol.

very snowy winter...id allow a Jan tornado lol

only 4-5 months to go