michsnowfreak

I turned it on. Although, the nam still has big snows here

Filled the snowblower to the brim with gas, got my washer fluid and shoveled around the snowboards to make a larger measuring surface (not sure what we lose tmrw). I am storm ready!

Euro looked very good. Gfs is now the most south. I called it 2 days ago. The North South models swap.

Meh I doubt nearly everyone in the sub has seen a historic storm the past 18 years. Although I guess it depends what you deem historic. I did see the biggest single storm total of my life with just under 17" in GHDII. And my comment wasn't aimed at you directly. At 18z yesterday some were fretting NW trends now some fretting SE. It only has so much wiggle room. We are in a good spot. Onto the euro...

Absolutely. I would love a historic storm.. But I love snow. So how can I not be excited?

Too many freakouts on both the northern and Southern edge of the snow shield the last 18 hours. No one knows what's going to happen yet.

Which is why I definitely have a love hate relationship with models

Still some monsters on the ensembles. As always 12z will be a big cycle today

All good points. Again I'm agreeing with you, just disagreeing with the tweet. I will say this though about John Q Public. They don't exactly do the best job with measuring snow in the 1st place lol. Some of them inflate the drifts and others come up with the number so low I feel like they're measuring on the freeway median. It seems like NWSs in this area try to weed out those reports but I have read some of the pns from the East Coast storms and they include them all and even their own posters admit some of them are BS.

I only got 5" Nov 21 2015 when you and jonger got slammed. It was gorgeous scenic snow but a big miss of heavier totals (and I forgot I had a 5.5 snow in Feb 16 oops. I was going by memory lol). I've been measuring snow since 95-96. The only winters without a 6+ storm: 96-97, 97-98, 99-00, 03-04, 11-12 & 15-16

These are all valid points. But again. The tweet flat out said don't expect these amounts because of compaction. Again, whenever you see reports of a major lake effect snow event in Marquette or Buffalo or of an East Coast snowstorm they say how much fell. They don't say "but there's actually XX on the ground".

Here's my 6+ since our epic stretch ended after the winter of 14-15. 15-16: none (biggest 5.0) 16-17: 10.9" Dec 11/12 17-18: 6.5" Dec 13/14...9.3" Feb 9 18-19: 6.1" Jan 19 19-20: 8.5" Nov 11/12...7.0" Jan 20...6.0" Feb 25/26 20-21: 11.0" Feb 15/16

It's ridiculous. And Also a reminder. Regardless of how much ends up falling, this will be a long duration event. What that means is when you wake up Friday morning and the snow has ended, sticking a yard stick, measuring depth, and calling it total is underdone. Just like how lake effect snow and big East Coast storms always see the depth less than the total fall after 2 days, that's what we will see. You measure every 6 hours. Also have to take into account drifting as well as whatever old snow remains on the ground. Definitely have to be on your toes when measuring this one.

We've had multiple 8+ storms the last 6 years. However 6 years ago is when our epic stretch of winters gave way to more normal winters unfortunately.

That's insane

How bout the SE MI snow magnet

Are you flying home?

Jokes aside, the undeniable Northwest trend circa 2007-08 is long in the past. A good many storms do end up coming Northwest but it is far from the guarantee it was.

Computer models are definitely full of issues, but DTW is in as good a spot as you could hope for on model consensus. Basically square in the middle of the heavy band on the GFS and euro ensembles

It's the 84 hour nam too lol

I must echo it. If you have to go by the TV news absolutely Dave rexroth is the way to go

This storm is worthy of bringing the eta and ngm out of retirement

You have to throw in the 12z korean

I was just coming to say that. Several of the ensembles have a stripe of 3 feet plus at 10:1ratio.

I don't really pay close attention to the East Coast, but I don't even know if I can recall any storm period with an ensemble MEAN that beefed up several days out.