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Everything posted by michsnowfreak
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Yes Feb has killed it. In 2021 we had 11" of snow on Feb 15-16 over a 5" base. In 2018 we had a 9" snow Feb 10 over a 6" base. But 2014 would be the last time we had deep snows over an already double digit base. Fun fact. The Winter with the most double digit inch snow depth days? 2013-14 by a mile. 2nd place? 2014-15. Sorry not sorry 1970s lol.
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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Too funny how that works. In 2003-04 I came very close (5.8" Jan 14 & 5.9" Mar 16/17). Biggest in 2011-12 was 4.9" (Feb 11/12) biggest in 2015-16 was 4.9" (Nov 21). I didn't realize you have 3 such good storms there in 2015-16. I had 4-point-something in each of the 3 here. -
Nice try. 2006- 1" 2007- 8" 2008- 4" 2009- 2" 2010- 6" 2011- 9" 2012- 3" 2013- T 2014- 16" 2015- 13" 2016- 2" 2017- -- 2018- 12" 2019- 1" 2020- 2" 2021- 6" 2022- 4" 2023- --
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I hate it but I suppose we are due. We've been on a historic run of snowy Februarys. Detroit has only seen 0.1" of snow this month, although snow did cover the ground the 1st 7 days. The last week of the month has definitely piqued my interest.
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This is only the 2nd Valentines Day in the last 18 years without snow on the ground.
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The only problem with that is I'm headed North early Thursday morning. Lol but the magnet will be ready for the following week.
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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I mentioned it the other day and got a few hahas but seriously, there's building cold in Canada and warmth in the South. That will create a big temp contrast and with the weather turning active, potential is there. Best of all, with me taking a trip up North (even though the snow is subpar up there, there is still snow), I'll be busy enough to not have to watch the models until I get home Monday night. -
Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
It was definitely crazy. The warmth came with very low humidity so it's not like it was uncomfortable it was just very out of place. March 2012 finished with a departure here of +13.5゚. Then of course as you mentioned the most epic Winter of all time hit in 2013-14. But one thing that doesn't get enough credit is February 2015 for its brutal cold. Between the winter of 2013-14 & a record snowstorm to start Feb 2015, many forget just gow cold it was. DTW finished -13.9°, a greater departure than March 2012. -
Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Models absolutely make it seem worse than it actually is. In the 23 years of this century, I've only seen 3 winters without a 6"+ snowstorm (2015-16, 2011-12, 2003-04). For me, 6+ storms the last 10 winters: Jan 25, 2023: 6.2" Feb 17/18, 2022: 6.8" Feb 2/3, 2022: 9.3" (2 waves 6.0+3.3) Feb 15/16, 2021: 10.8" Jan 18, 2020: 7.0" Nov 11/12, 2019: 8.8" Jan 19, 2019: 6.1" Feb 9, 2018: 9.2" Dec 13/14, 2017: 6.7" Dec 11, 2016: 10.9" Feb 1/2, 2015: 16.5" Mar 12, 2014: 6.8" Feb 5, 2014: 8.3" Jan 26/27, 2014: 6.1" Jan 5/6, 2014: 10.3" Jan 1/2, 2014: 11.6" Dec 13/14, 2013: 8.4" -
Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Those are my FAVORITE! -
I estimate 4-5" of my 19.8" is lake effect or lake enhanced.
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I don't pay close attention to Chicago but I would assume there's been less on the lakeshore than ORD.
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Chicago has already passed their futility record though
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There's been signs for a while that it will turn colder at the end of February. There's a lot of cold building in Canada and then the warmth to the south is going to create quite a contrast of airmasses. Potential is definitely there.
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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
And yet we've not come remotely close to a Morch since 2012. It's actually pretty sad that anybody in a northern climate like this would wish for that when so many in our states make a living off of growing fruit. Morch was a year long disaster for crops. -
Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
I only pointed that out because rogue mentioned a model trend in recent years of snow to the north and snow to the south of us, implying that south of us had more snowstorms -
Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Nah. I just like to troll the troll once in a while when the weather is boring (and it's definitely boring right now). It would be too exhausting to do all the time. -
Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Wishful thinking again. -
Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Not really. We've gotten far more advisory and warning criteria snowstorms than Indiana and Ohio. It's the model fantasy storms that turn to dust that annoy us all. One of these days a storm is not gonna shear out and it will be like the boy who cried wolf. No one will believe it and someone will get absolutely buried. -
One thing I will say is I definitely made the most of being outdoors when there was snow. Especially since I love nature photography. I know somehow in SNE around the "let's go for futility" bandwagon but I'm telling you, if you get a snowstorm it's good for the snow weenies soul to go out and enjoy it.
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The seasonal average for Detroit is 45.0". The 19.8" is my backyard in Wyandotte, MI. DTW officially is 19.3", average to date 29.9" (so still 15" more to go on average). There have been 25 days with 1"+ snow on the ground and average for a winter is 50. One side note, we are a little less feast/famine out here than you guys are due the differences in climate. We see more frequent snow but less huge storms. So the chances of 100" in a month or a single digit Winter such as Boston has seen each of recently, just does not happen here. I've been measuring snow in my backyard for 28 years, and the snowiest winter I've had was 96.2" in 2013-14, and the least snowy was 25.5" in 2011-12.
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I think the entire eastern half of the US south of at least 45N has had a sh*t winter. It's not been as bad in SE MI as in SNE, but still. I'm at 19.8" season to date. There was a period of winter in mid November, Christmas week, and late Jan to early Feb. Snow blanketed the ground for a few days in mid Nov, for a week at Christmas (perfect timing) and for 17 straight days Jan into Feb. That's it. I spent lots of time outdoors the previous several weeks enjoying the snow and with it being sunny and dry this weekend I said "now that the weather is awful and sunny, I can get stuff done indoors" lol
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Good post. Frustration for most is understandable but acting like everyone knows what's going to happen is just silly. None of us know what's going to happen but I do know that we have over 2 more months before we are out of the woods for accumulating snow potential.
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2011-12 was the lowest snow season in my now 28 years of measuring snowfall. I finished with 25.5". It was certainly a terrible Winter but March was really the difference maker. Had it been even an average March the season would have blended in with just other subpar winters and not the stinker it is remembered for. While the final snowfall number is certainly what we all look at, a lot of other factors come in to play, like days with snow on the ground, how deep did the snow get at its deepest, what was the biggest storm, how cold, etc. I'm at 19.8" so far so technically I could still fall below 2011-12 but there really is a long way to go. Plus I've had a bigger storms and more days with snow on the ground than in 2011-12.
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Winter 2022/23 Medium/Long Range Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to Chicago Storm's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Meaning I have an 8 hour drive (staying in L'anse near the Keweenaw) And some sort of storm looks like a certainly statewide later Thursday into Thursday night.