pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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Yeah, blizz is the shizz. Being the other resident snow whacko, its good to be along side him. Yes, storms like this will often do the north jog Ao@ 2-3 day leads, so we have time with this. I am not YET rooting it north, as if it starts now, you'll see too far W solutions start showing up and tainting our precious white gold potential. Just look for subtle changes in confluence, 500 flow pattern, tilt axis, ridging etc. Thats the way we can baby step our way into a doozy.
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I cant find it, but that makes sense. Just remember something about manpower and my being a smart@ss saying was it "too much math".
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actually check that. Hi risk and i were discussing the other day and he said that it is too big an undertaking and they dont have the resources to convert the GEFS to Fv3. I think you'll have a new Op to stare at w/ same old GEFS for longer range viewing. I'll dig back through my posts and see if i can find it. Need more coffee/dramamine first.
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Seeing Sanchez back in the huddle for you guys has to be surreal.
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Sucks that McCoy went out as I like him...and I’m an eagles fan.
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If we can see a continuation with overnights it will be a big confidence boost as right now it’s just 1 run and not a trend. That said I agree and feel that the NS energy will not be as strong as modeled and will correct to a solution that is better for us.
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Thankfully yes but GFS is either way wrong or heartbreak hotel.
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Preach it brother...
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CMC snowmap is akin to a pic of your favorite porn star that is signed “all my love”.
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#keepingfaithalive
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well at least warmer solutions are less of a worry. Just trying to stay positive....lol
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well, the if the GFS biases come into play, it just did a great job of "loosing the storm" for us, and has a lot of "coming back" to do. Good grief.
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I can see how that could evolve, but verbatim, its a southern slider. To your point, yes a few runs from now this correction could give us what we need for it to gain latitude.
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IMO 50/50 is party spoiler
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so do i....
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yep. So far things are looking a little south, but money panels still to come.
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500/700 looks flatter at 102.
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FWIW @ 84 its about 150 miles NE of 6z location.
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said that yesterday, so add a +1 to your camp.
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CMC looked decent as well. Gonna be a long week for sure as this one looks to be a formidable early season event for the lucky ones in the bullseye. Seeing the GFS camp head so far south is concerning, but having the King/CMC on our side is not bad at this juncture.
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Necessary evil for me. its where i have to go for my weather analysis fix. We can rock it pretty well in here, but just not as frequently.
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Did you read my post in the MA forum....its like were inside each others brain..... cant agree more.
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if you are looking for consensus, the CMC has rather similar look at surface evolution of the storm.
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but you can also see the ULL north of the lakes that to my eye prohibiting that shunts this off ENE instead uf NE.
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Yeah caviman made a great point. There isn't much history or support for major suppression for this storm, and climo says its a little early for suppression. My gut still worries about northern jog....or maybe that was the breakfast i just ate.
