pasnownut

Yep yep. Now back to the eggnog everyone!! Lol

once we turn the calendar, the overnight GEFS and fv3 really take on a wintery look at 500mb. longwave pattern w/ big ridge out west and trough digging for the deep south in the east. Looks like cold would be no problem, just need the stj to be close enough to throw some energy into it...or it would be clipper city.

yeah thats a setup that could make many happy as its a nice looking 500mb pattern...especially down your way

Agreed. Definitely should start getting true threats to discuss in the next few days.

Look at Fv3 500 maps beyond next week. Mother load of cold is coming.

Fv3 overnights did not look horrible for the overall pattern once beyond this weekend. Ridging in west pops and trough digs in the east as we turn the calendar. I'm just going to leave it at that cause its Christmas and I'm considering that a good gift, and not a lump of coal. Out to the end of the run, the 500 maps are definitely bringing the cold. Hope ya'll have a great Christmas.

Merry Christmas all. Hope its a great day! Nut

Agreed. Pattern looks to be better as we turn the Calendar. Your right....we also dont need suppression depression. Cold enough is fine. Merry Christmas to all my CTP Peeps....and any other lurkers

Agreed. We've had decent periods that were void of any help from the NAO. Sure helps, but as Chill n others have already stated, get a decent pattern w/ a few variables lined in our favor, and we can find ways to score (fail - depending on how you look at the glass). As long as MJO continues to go to better phases in the LR, we should be ok.

thats what i was thinking. Breakfast in a bottle. Coffee/chocolate stoudts are slowly gaining interest for me as well. Might have to try it.

It does make one wonder when seeing potential in the next week....why one would worry about a 384 panel. Its like they've never done this before. SMH.

Of course. I will see the snow clouds to the north...while I watch the rain fall. #tease

one is a little bigger than the other.

Truth. Y’all need to think about bolded. We just don’t live in locals that afford us the option to be picky. Take what we can when we can and be thankful when it’s snowing. Big/epic patterns are elusive and just few and far between. Think about the ROI on our searches for epic patterns over the years. It’s a labor of love that’s for sure. Surely they are awesome when they happen but if that’s your bar....you’ll be happier once you lower it a bit.

I was speaking in terms of frequency, but in fairness SSW, while not as understood, still can have every bit...or more impact on bringing cold to lower latitudes. Not sure how that is disputable ( and I’m not looking to argue). Just pointing out that it holds weight....even though it’s much more of a rarity.

Sorta like the NAO right??

Just posted this in the MA forum. As some/most know we are finally seeing a SSW event unfolding (sudden stratospheric warming). IE its warming up top of the globe, and when this happens, the cold drops south (called downwelling) and where it sets up, can be quite helpful (like neg nao/ao). Here is a 3d animation. I've got lots to learn, but find this fascinating. Hope you enjoy. This is the PV up where santa's working feverishly FYI. Nut

Just a bit more SSW stuff, since we are still waiting for viable threats. Check this animation of the SSW event. Rather awesome. And from what I've read, we would prefer a major disturbance that "fragments" the PV, and ultimately not a split. Both can work, but If the split sets up in the wrong places, we could be on the wrong side of the trough. I'd say its akin to a W based NAO that retrogrades and pulls a trough west in the the central US as ridging pops in the east. Its something we want, but in the right places.

thats actually funny right there..... Keep studying and if you get that hamster wheel headed in the right direction, in oh.....say.....10 years, you'll be just fine. Just bustin ya

You ask...I deliver....

You asked...I deliver. The solstice is upon us. It’s that time we’ve all been waiting for..... Snow time!! Here’s to a great winter! Keep it real....keep it fun. Don’t piss off the mods... Chat amongst yourselves. Nut

Preach it brother. BTW, if your getting last minute gifts, I'm a size 10 boot. Seeing the EPS snow mean is quite a nice way to start the day.

its just been one of those years.

this sh!ts just crazy. Half way home from work in Manheim at 530...i couldnt see it was raining so hard. by the time i got to Ephrata, the moon was out and clouds and big open areas of clear. Clouds were MOVIN though as wind was due S. Not a drop at my house till about 45 min ago then boy oh boy did it cut loose. I wont miss this....if the monsoon season ever leaves us.

its not the worst thing as long as NS is in the MA. also as long as the STJ meets up in the middle of the conus, you could have overrunning events. Were that not the case, yeah bits and pieces come through with little/no fanfare.