pasnownut

Like your enthusiasm but your like a hampster on the wheel buddy. I know you want snow, but I’d suggest just letting things evolve and not searching for ways to fail. We all know they exist.

@frdI would hope that logical progression of Nino and climo therin could minimize westward progression. But that’s a blend of more wishcasting then factual based reasoning.

@frd yes I've been following them both and I think HM sums it up well (and so we can understand ). No matter the strength of the SSW, something is happening up top, and something that will have an effect on the PV. Most simply translated. Someones gonna get cold.

Yes we do. Let’s hope mo nature leaves some moisture for the pattern change.

Piedmont region is anything SE of the Apps. Lehigh Valley is sorta a tweeter as northern Lehigh is likely getting snow when lower areas twds and below souderton could be wet not white.

Yeah when I read that this morning I was wondering what the response would be.

Looking better by the day. Cautious optimism..... Tug that NAO a little west, sharpen that trough and yeah, it may be a weenie fest. Not a bad look at all though.

I'd only be cautious that while the pattern flip looks to be coming, dont assume the STJ will end up where we want/need it. Suppression depression is something that we need to be reminded of. Sure hope that isnt the case, but as we saw 2 weeks ago, it is a possibility.

you too huh?? tempting to cash in and pay off mortgages and find a fireproof mattress w/ a hole in it......lol where shall we meet?

Well thanks Matt. We look forward to you chiming in. Yesterday was just a bit of frustration but were already through it, and by the looks of things, it might get rather fun around here. My suspicions a week ago (about the warmup being more transient than permanent) , seem to be gaining traction and we're already seeing signs of potential once again showing up for the holiday week. Once we turn the calendar, all hell may break loose...especially if the SSW episode continues to occur as there will be more sustained cold close by for events to be white, not wet. If i dont see another cutter on the weather map all year, I'td be just fine by me. Nut

Blizz it’s good to hear the end is already in sight for this boring period. We need storms and snow to get the mojo rolling again. The SSW looks to be gaining momentum and a split if the PV seems like it’s happening. That may also start to factor into LR guidance. Looking forward to it. Jan could end up rather busy.

Go find Cashtown on this board. He gets ALL the friggin snow. He’s a hog like that....;). You are one of us...stick around. Fun times hopefully a coming. Speaking of ....where’s he been? Did Plowguy go down and bury him in a snowdrift or something?

No nerve and it’s all good. It’s also about perception and to that we can disagree. No problem. Just find blanket statements can be misleading when talking bout “our” precious snow. That’s all. NE forum has been enjoying a great start so you caught me off guard a bit. To your point yeah I guess coastal locals have been less rewarded. If you show that map I posted any year ever regarding % vs climo...any snowbound would take no questions asked. That’s part of the perception I was referring to. To me 1 snow event with it lasting for days or weeks as this last event did Is still a great start to winter. I got half as much as you in the first event and it was all pure bonus to me. Just don’t expect much here. Im sure you get that. Looking forward to Jan and a hopefully snowier look.

I get that, but that map represents the northeast....to which you lumped into your bag of coal....."my statement is certainly specific to the LSV but really it applies to most of the populated North East as it pertains to snow" That map is also representative of frequent snows outside of your location to the North and west and NE of you as well as the entire Northeast. Carry on......

the words great and golfing do not cooexist for me. I can find my way around, but i can muck it up just as easily.

Just da facts....

Yes it was, but no matter, snow is only 1 facet of what many deem "good" by winter standards. Those of us who sit on the realist side of forecasting/prognostication know better than to ever bet big on Dec. snows....as even with house money you'd look like a fool. Dec snow is not so good around here, but if you look up north/west, theyve had quite a stretch of snow on the ground aready, and it has snowed multiple times W and N of the LSV. Maybe you should restate IMBY winter has sucked, cause that may be the case. Thats all i'm driving at.

Exactly. You also nailed it. 2015 should be fresh in the minds of many (head starts to tick as i type).

You said it better than I did. Yeah, the early start probably set false expectations of "wall to wall" and the like. ANY snow, OCT through mid Dec is climatoligical bonus snow, as we only average around 3-4" in my area. While December has by and large been a dud, snow wise, it has been a normalish one and likely will finish close (yes i saw todays maps) to normal or slightly above, but no Blowtorch, and even if a couple days break warm we all know that Jan. is typiccally go time in Nino years.

Wow. Some of us have WAY different ideas of "worse". That is quite a bold statement alright, and one that by December standards, is not true (assuming you like cold/winter type weather). I for one, love winter, and feel this December has been far more tolerable that many.

With all due respect, if you understand it's climo.....then you should stop right there and be done w/ your statement. As psu suggested, 3" is all that is normal, so while the pattern isnt great right now, its not impossible to "luck" your way into climo. there are several opps for something showing on the models, and with a potential correction (as ISO alluded to), its reasonable to see a chance or 2 before a wholesale shift to what were all waiting for happens.

Yeah i know you havent been spouting torch talk. I think it possible to sneak 1 or 2 events w/ cold close enough to at least take the edge off of the "wasted" time waiting. If this SSW spit continues, it will be cool to watch evolution and how it plays into Jan. I'm rather green regarding how it will sensibly affect things, but look forward to seeing how it factors in.

Thats a great reminder regarding the pos anomalies that we would see north of us. Some will think were in trouble but in Jan/Feb its not as big a deal and as you said it will be likely "cold enough" for it to snow. While i think your right that it may take from mid Jan onwards, I'd think that by this time next week, we may be seeing 10 day maps that get things looking more interesting. Its no shutout pattern, so for me, thats a win in and of itself. Transient is fine.

Seeing that ISO is still holding the line, is great and lends credence to our SSW convo that some have been chatting about. Looking like we should see the effects as we head towards the New Year, and per his read, he things the SE ridge is being overmodeled. Even if we get zonal pattern, it surely isnt a horrible base state to have something NS drop in to pay a visit. Thats how i see it anyway.

Very true. We've seemingly got the STJ working, just need the canooks to get their sh!t together and we'll be doing just fine. Overnights have taken a slightly more workable look in the way out there range. Seeing that cold dumping into the west just hurts when we finally have all players showing up. Just need them to play nice and it could be a really nice time here in the east.